southpark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Mailman said: Starting to come down nicely here. Snow is falling here too. still pretty light but it seems like this is ahead of schedule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Mailman said: Starting to come down nicely here. I am seeing some flakes too. This seems a little earlier than modeled. I wonder if this is an earlier arrival or a bigger precip field? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, MikeB_01 said: I am seeing some flakes too. This seems a little earlier than modeled. I wonder if this is an earlier arrival or a bigger precip field? Some Models had a finger like feature streaking through western pa but I don't think it was supposed to arrive this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, southpark said: Some Models had a finger like feature streaking through western pa but I don't think it was supposed to arrive this early. Yea saw that on the hi-res models earlier today, but definitely not this early. NWS was saying sometime between 12-2 am. I'm hoping this is a good sign? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, MikeB_01 said: Yea saw that on the hi-res models earlier today, but definitely not this early. NWS was saying sometime between 12-2 am. I'm hoping this is a good sign? I hope so. I have no clue what to make of this system. Some models have us getting 5 inches while some have us getting 1.5 inches. It would be nice to get 3 to 4 inches out of it. Figures, most systems trended northwest the entire winter and when we needed even just a little shift it doesn't look like it is going to materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 NAM had like 4 or 5 so maybe we get lucky and overperform. Obviously we aren't talking 6+ but 4 or 5 would be a good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Pretty good band right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Pretty good band right now. Yeah better returns are starting to make their way into Allegheny County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: NAM had like 4 or 5 so maybe we get lucky and overperform. Obviously we aren't talking 6+ but 4 or 5 would be a good event. I could see 5” or 6” south east of the city. Moisture looks pretty robust and those areas will be in it longer, I was half expecting some Virga with this first batch, but sticking efficiently. Could be another little storm where we maximize every flake! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 44 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: I am seeing some flakes too. This seems a little earlier than modeled. I wonder if this is an earlier arrival or a bigger precip field? Yeah I don't think I saw any models snow before midnight at the earliest. Probably doesn't mean much but can't hurt right? I think usually the WAA snow starts faster than modeled most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 26 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Yeah I don't think I saw any models snow before midnight at the earliest. Probably doesn't mean much but can't hurt right? I think usually the WAA snow starts faster than modeled most of the time. I have a theory that it’s really undermodeled up the 119 corridor, just west of the ridges. That’s the area that the newer models really show the enhanced screw zone first when the warm tongue is an issue. But it also appears that that area does very well during WWA snows. I could be way off in saying that somehow the positioning relative to the ridges makes that process more efficient - but it sure seems that way. Exhibit A to that theory is that corridor is getting drilled pretty good right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutnOakmont Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Really coming down now! The road is already covered and the snow back is nice and fresh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Not sure how much more we're going to get out of this today. We're getting dry slotted pretty good now. Unless it fills back in as the day goes on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Looks like we should get trickles throughout the day and night for another 1-2”. I only got 1.25” from last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 It’s always a curse when the models agree and tease us with a D9 storm like they did with this one. Hopefully they don’t do that again. Oh wait... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I believe Ron Smiley said yesterday that most of the snow would accumulate Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. So, we shpould be ramping up later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Radar already starting to fill in again. I think this has been as advertised so far. This dry slot was showing up on the hres models yesterday, but I just think everything got started a few hours earlier than what was modeled. It started earlier, we dry slotted earlier, and looks like we are filling in earlier. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Don't look now, but the Euro and GFS are sniffing another storm next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ecanem said: Don't look now, but the Euro and GFS are sniffing another storm next Friday. All I ask is that if it’s not going to happen, the models pick up on it no later than Sunday so as not to get our hopes up and crush us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity87 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Well then lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 20 minutes ago, SteelCity87 said: Well then lol The threshold for “this storm didn’t suck” was admittedly set incredibly low at this point, but I think we managed to not even meet that threshold. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 When I saw us in that dry slot earlier, it didn't look good for development to me. Precip field was shrinking, not growing. Still doing the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said: When I saw us in that dry slot earlier, it didn't look good for development to me. Precip field was shrinking, not growing. Still doing the same. Yea, I'll admit i was wrong on this one. I thought the radar started to fill in around 9:00. As quickly as it filled in, it went away. HRRR still shows redevelopment once the suns goes down. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 We've picked up 1.3" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 This snowpack is just covered in ice. Unless we full out torch with sun its gonna be hard to get rid of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Euro nailed this one for my yard. It showed about an inch or less and that’s what I ended up with. Will have to see what happens once the winds back to W /NW later today and through the day tomorrow. Won’t take much for that to beat this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Well unless the CMC is correct looks like we take a break from tracking for a week. Next week is interesting atleast on the GFS and para. Para has a bowling ball that just goes W to E and destroys Baltimore with 2ft. Its been a fun a year of tracking. I'm used to sitting here and looking at models and just hoping a SSW takes places or modeled blocking actually holds in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I got a nice band overnight and woke up to about 2” on my car (so we’ll call it slightly less). But then that dry slot was fierce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Well unless the CMC is correct looks like we take a break from tracking for a week. Next week is interesting atleast on the GFS and para. Para has a bowling ball that just goes W to E and destroys Baltimore with 2ft. Its been a fun a year of tracking. I'm used to sitting here and looking at models and just hoping a SSW takes places or modeled blocking actually holds in place. Euro gives us mostly rain, GFS brings a snowstorm of epic proportions through central NC and gives us nothing, and the Para gives the aforementioned blast of snow to MD/VA. In other words, the models have picked up this storm and there’s still a ton of time to either cash in or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Looks like NWS trimmed down any accumulations for tonight too now. Tomorrow still a shot at some snow showers so we will see if anyone gets lucky. Not worth analyzing anything for next Friday imho other than just quick glance to see if it’s still somewhere on the map for the next couple days. Monday looks like rain /snow mix at best right now unless all your eggs are in the CMC basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now