Ahoff Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, dj3 said: Yep saw that with the low pressure panels as well! Seems it is causing a bit of panic in the Mid-Atlantic forum. While it will be unfortunate for them to trend so poorly after so many good days, the idea of the potential here is exciting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Ahoff said: Seems it is causing a bit of panic in the Mid-Atlantic forum. While it will be unfortunate for them to trend so poorly after so many good days, the idea of the potential here is exciting. DC has been on a knife's edge for days now....I WOULD feel bad for some of the people in central PA if that happened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I'm no expert but it looks like the NAM is coming in North and West. The high in Canada is pretty significantly north of 18z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: I'm no expert but it looks like the NAM is coming in North and West. The high in Canada is pretty significantly north of 18z. My weenie eyes saw the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Burghblizz said: My weenie eyes saw the same thing Watch it half totals lol. I tend to see what I want with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 NAM looking good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I don't think the low is really any further west on the NAM, but it throws way more precip back our way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: I don't think the low is really any further west on the NAM, but it throws way more precip back our way. Whatever gets it done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 From my untrained eye the NAM has the low hugging the coast more and heading more north instead of heading east which most likely allows the precip to be thrown back at us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Rd9108 said: From my untrained eye the NAM has the low hugging the coast more and heading more north instead of heading east which most likely allows the precip to be thrown back at us. Cold conveyor belt? We are on the backend of it, but that is why this run looks good for us. It is EPIC for central PA....us it gives near a foot with them getting two feet or more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, KPITSnow said: Cold conveyor belt? We are on the backend of it, but that is why this run looks good for us. It is EPIC for central PA....us it gives near a foot with them getting two feet or more. Wouldn't be upset with a foot even if Central PA got 2 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Didn’t the 1992 December storm do the same thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, meatwad said: Didn’t the 1992 December storm do the same thing? The most recent storm that did it was actually that first day of spring storm in 2018. I remember that we just kept getting snow thrown back at us all day. Not sure if this is the same set up but it was one of those rare times the the coastal was throwing precip back this way all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, meatwad said: Didn’t the 1992 December storm do the same thing? I was one. I remember that storm very fondly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, KPITSnow said: The most recent storm that did it was actually that first day of spring storm in 2018. I remember that we just kept getting snow thrown back at us all day. Not sure if this is the same set up but it was one of those rare times the the coastal was throwing precip back this way all day. That was because of the upper low if I remember correctly. I recently went back to that thread and examined the posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: From my untrained eye the NAM has the low hugging the coast more and heading more north instead of heading east which most likely allows the precip to be thrown back at us. We are going to like this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I was 13, was getting ready for school after a two hour delay, as I walking to the bus stop, my classmate who was also 13 told me to go home school was canceled lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, southpark said: We are going to like this run I agree and there is still always the nowcast surprises that happen. I believe it was the 2016 blizzard that the NAM ended up being right and came further west then any model was predicting. A solid 8-12 storm would be huge for our weenie morale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The 0Z NAM isn't really any further NW, and in fact keeps colder thermal profiles for places like Philly and NJ, but it creates a massive CCB that dumps snow over the entire middle of the state (which attempts to reach out here). Kind of a crazy look. I know the clown maps will be overdone, but I'll laugh at them anyway like a mad scientist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, meatwad said: Didn’t the 1992 December storm do the same thing? That was a bigger, more explosive storm. It was much warmer to the east. But the setup is pretty similar. That had a first wave that overperformed as there was supposed to be heavier snow later with the coastal. But the epic snows later really only made to Somerset (3’). Still a foot of snow and a memorable storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, jwilson said: The 0Z NAM isn't really any further NW, and in fact keeps colder thermal profiles for places like Philly and NJ, but it creates a massive CCB that dumps snow over the entire middle of the state (which attempts to reach out here). Kind of a crazy look. I know the clown maps will be overdone, but I'll laugh at them anyway like a mad scientist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: The weather-bell maps are showing like 50 inches in some places. Outrageous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3k NAM (warm tongue looms for me): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 11 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: That was a bigger, more explosive storm. It was much warmer to the east. But the setup is pretty similar. That had a first wave that overperformed as there was supposed to be heavier snow later with the coastal. But the epic snows later really only made to Somerset (3’). Still a foot of snow and a memorable storm Heck Yeah. One of my fav things about that storm was Jeff Morrow being caked in snow in Breezewood. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Mailman said: 3k NAM (warm tongue looms for me): I hope that warm tongue does not materialize. That’s really the first we’ve seen it here. Hopefully, that is not a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: The weather-bell maps are showing like 50 inches in some places. Outrageous. 3 minutes ago, Mailman said: 3k NAM (warm tongue looks for me): Don't even bring up the warm tongue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 26 minutes ago, meatwad said: Didn’t the 1992 December storm do the same thing? 18 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: That was a bigger, more explosive storm. It was much warmer to the east. But the setup is pretty similar. That had a first wave that overperformed as there was supposed to be heavier snow later with the coastal. But the epic snows later really only made to Somerset (3’). Still a foot of snow and a memorable storm I would say the overall feel of this storm reminds me a little bit of Jan 1996 and Jan 2016. Hopefully the Jan 1996 part carries more weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Would be nice to see the GFS move closer to the others here within the next hour just to lessen my doubts a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I just wish this was starting a few hours later so the drive home from work won't be a nightmare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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