TimB Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Well folks, Thursday may be it for awhile. We all know how long this pattern seems to persist every time it sets up the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Well folks, Thursday may be it for awhile. We all know how long this pattern seems to persist every time it sets up the past few years. They basically said that all of February would look like that too, back in January, lol. Actually they may have had the whole country warm for February. I'm taking it a week at a time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Mailman said: I would not be mad if that was our final storm of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Well folks, Thursday may be it for awhile. We all know how long this pattern seems to persist every time it sets up the past few years.Even warm patterns can deliver storms. Less likely? Sure. But not impossible. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ahoff said: They basically said that all of February would look like that too, back in January, lol. Actually they may have had the whole country warm for February. I'm taking it a week at a time. I actually saved this map from 1/31 because we constantly see ones with no blue, but we never see ones with no orange/red. It was incredible to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Today has been a nice surprise of a day. Snow has been falling and blowing the last 6 hours with winds of 25 mph. These days always amazed me because it is 22 and snowing here and 50 across the state in Philly. That's why I will take our Winter climo over theirs any day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 There’s a notable gap in the watches somewhere... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, north pgh said: Today has been a nice surprise of a day. Snow has been falling and blowing the last 6 hours with winds of 25 mph. These days always amazed me because it is 22 and snowing here and 50 across the state in Philly. That's why I will take our Winter climo over theirs any day. These days are nice when u have a decent snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, TimB84 said: I actually saved this map from 1/31 because we constantly see ones with no blue, but we never see ones with no orange/red. It was incredible to see. Only after it was obvious their prior forecast would bust. I'm not saying it won't be above average, but it certainly doesn't mean the snow is done. March can be a bitch of a month, it does average 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, TimB84 said: There’s a notable gap in the watches somewhere... Those Southern Ohio zones (which would figure to do similar to us with this) have a lower threshold. They can pop em up with 4”+ expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Those Southern Ohio zones (which would figure to do similar to us with this) have a lower threshold. They can pop em up with 4”+ expected Ah, I see the one for the Wilmington, OH forecast office is for 2-4 inches and a light glaze of ice. That would barely get us an advisory. Like I said earlier, at least the 7 people that live in Preston/Tucker County, WV (if any of them even like snow) will be satisfied with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Today has been a nice surprise of a day. Snow has been falling and blowing the last 6 hours with winds of 25 mph. These days always amazed me because it is 22 and snowing here and 50 across the state in Philly. That's why I will take our Winter climo over theirs any day. I'm probably different and in the minority here, but I'm pretty much a big storm kinda guy. The little spurts of snow never did much for me. I'd honestly rather have a 50 degree day and get a foot or more of snow from a storm, than nickels and dimes and continuous cold. Philly gets less snow than us for sure overall most winters, but being closer to the coast, has better chances at the big record breaking storms. Not whining or anything lol, that's just me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 15 minutes ago, north pgh said: Today has been a nice surprise of a day. Snow has been falling and blowing the last 6 hours with winds of 25 mph. These days always amazed me because it is 22 and snowing here and 50 across the state in Philly. That's why I will take our Winter climo over theirs any day. A little over an inch today officially of bonus snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 SREFs up over 6". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 8 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: A little over an inch today officially of bonus snow I was going to say the same, we probably pulled off a sneaky inch so far today for padding stats and a moderate burst outside my window now. I do love these steady light snow days with imbedded moderate to heavy bursts especially when it’s cold. Makes radar watching fun. It’s even better when you are refreshing an existing snow pack. I’m definitely one of those that want to keep the snow pack going so I’ll take these 2-4 type snows with endless overcast sub 32 days all winter. As we close in on March though I start to gravitate towards more big game hunting as snow pack retention is pretty difficult. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ahoff said: SREFs up over 6". I just joined this forum this winter thanks to a friend and I can say that these predictions you bring from whatever these things are seem to be the best predictor regardless of the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 38 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Only after it was obvious their prior forecast would bust. I'm not saying it won't be above average, but it certainly doesn't mean the snow is done. March can be a bitch of a month, it does average 8". March can average above but still produce, how many stories are there of it being 50 degrees then a huge storm the next day. Rates will always overcome warm ground and sun angle. You just have to be ok with it melting 10 minutes after the storm ends. That’s why I change gears to really hunting a big one that time of year. Ill also add the blocking looks to reload one more time end of Feb, so first 2 weeks of March might have some tracking. Usually once the effect of a SSW wane it’s not uncommon to go above average, but if that’s the third week of March who cares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 DT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 hours ago, dj3 said: I'm with you on this. Going back to the end of last week this was modeled as a big QPF producer that some models had cutting west of us into Ohio. The overrunning from before the main coastal low actually gets going has consistently been modeled south of us and once the coastal does get going it looks like a weak piece of junk to me lol. The previous storm kept cutting more and more west with each run and this one has been going continuously weaker and south with each run. I think if we are going to see any NW trend it will be now that yesterday’s storm is lifting out. If models are overdoing confluence associated with its departure we should see hints of that soon. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 21 minutes ago, Gordo74 said: I just joined this forum this winter thanks to a friend and I can say that these predictions you bring from whatever these things are seem to be the best predictor regardless of the models. Srefs I'm pretty sure never jumped above 4 inches last storm. They seem pretty reliable for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I just joined this forum this winter thanks to a friend and I can say that these predictions you bring from whatever these things are seem to be the best predictor regardless of the models.I say it all the time.. I love the SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Is there a link to the SREFs? All I can find is OKC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Gordo74 said: I just joined this forum this winter thanks to a friend and I can say that these predictions you bring from whatever these things are seem to be the best predictor regardless of the models. I feel they're pretty good too. I think they are just a blend of many different models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: March can average above but still produce, how many stories are there of it being 50 degrees then a huge storm the next day. Rates will always overcome warm ground and sun angle. You just have to be ok with it melting 10 minutes after the storm ends. That’s why I change gears to really hunting a big one that time of year. Ill also add the blocking looks to reload one more time end of Feb, so first 2 weeks of March might have some tracking. Usually once the effect of a SSW wane it’s not uncommon to go above average, but if that’s the third week of March who cares? By mid-March, I'm in Summer mode, lol. Bring on the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 18 minutes ago, Ahoff said: By mid-March, I'm in Summer mode, lol. Bring on the warmth. Don’t get me wrong, I truly enjoy having four seasons, but summer is by far my least favorite of the four (at least from a weather perspective). The relentless heat and humidity is too much. No snow and very little severe weather to track, at least by the time you get to July/August, and the last few summers have lasted 4-5 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 There. No one should feel too bad about this past storm. Had to go really far west to find deep snow. Can’t believe how far the warm air pushed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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