TimB Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Yep, I remember multiple times as a kid watching 6pm news for weather ( I used to time them so I could catch all 3 stations, 2,4,11) with a storm projected to be all snow only to hear the pinging on my bedroom window and that feeling knowing warm air was winning. I didn't understand any of the causes then, probably why I was so interested to learn more about the science as I got older. I was this kid too. Go to bed with them predicting 6-8 inches of snow, thinking school would be closed and then waking up to rain and disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Don't look at the 18z euro yikes its a complete miss. Basically maybe an inch or two of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Sorry guys. This one is looking like a whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 Maybe tomorrow’s miss will be Thursday’s hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Sorry guys. This one is looking like a whiffWow. What a swath of 8+ and we couldn’t get 50 miles to the south east. I hope they are wrong, but nothing we can do. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 So at what point does the NWS downgrade our warning to an advisory? 4 hrs after precip onset? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutnOakmont Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 This is superstitious as hell, but I told my other half that as soon as the winter storm watch was issued, it was going to fall apart. We only seem to do well when nobody is looking so to speak. We seem to do so much better with quick hit and run systems than anything with a wind up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Won’t have to shut the blinds for this storm, because luckily being night they’ll already be shut. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 20 minutes ago, TimB84 said: So at what point does the NWS downgrade our warning to an advisory? 4 hrs after precip onset? This still is going to be a pain in the ass ice event and the WSW is extremely valid still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 46 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Sorry guys. This one is looking like a whiff Wow.. I'd think a lot of rain maybe with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: This still is going to be a pain in the ass ice event and the WSW is extremely valid still. Aren’t the WSW criteria for ice 1/4” or more? Do we legitimately think we get there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 17 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Aren’t the WSW criteria for ice 1/4” or more? Do we legitimately think we get there? My god you’re worse than me. What was your former name on here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, KPITSnow said: My god you’re worse than me. What was your former name on here? No former name on here, actually. Just thinking about warning criteria, and usually when 2” of snow and 0.1-0.2” of ice are expected, an advisory is issued. Does already having issued a warning change that thought process? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 hour ago, north pgh said: Maybe tomorrow’s miss will be Thursday’s hit. Why do we do this to ourselves? Lol. It is insane that you can't even trust a model to be even somewhat accurate within 48 hours of an event. Yesterday's 12z runs had us looking at 6 to 10 on many models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, southpark said: Why do we do this to ourselves? Lol. It is insane that you can't even trust a model to be even somewhat accurate within 48 hours of an event. Yesterday's 12z runs had us looking at 6 to 10 on many models. Should have known as soon we see serious NW adjustments. Once it starts it usually doesn't stop. Luckily we've done well this year or this would have been a morale destroyer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 43 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Aren’t the WSW criteria for ice 1/4” or more? Do we legitimately think we get there? Well they were saying up to .2” of ice early, if we trend less snow, I imagine more ice is on the table. Why can’t we just leave it as is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 At this point wouldn't it be better for this to cut further west to push the boundary down for the next wave? The low almost goes to Erie on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: At this point wouldn't it be better for this to cut further west to push the boundary down for the next wave? The low almost goes to Erie on the NAM. Why would going further west help? If it goes further west wouldn’t it be harder for the next one to come east enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 That 7 inch line cuts right across the 422 on the 18hrrr, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 53 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Well they were saying up to .2” of ice early, if we trend less snow, I imagine more ice is on the table. Why can’t we just leave it as is? Instead, they’ve left the 3-6” intact and still 0.1-0.2 of ice, despite many model runs to the contrary between the initial warning and the recent update. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, north pgh said: That 7 inch line cuts right across the 422 on the 18hrrr, Do you mean 80? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Instead, they’ve left the 3-6” intact and still 0.1-0.2 of ice, despite many model runs to the contrary between the initial warning and the recent update. I don’t know what to tell you? My phone’s weather app, which I think runs off of TWC, keeps it all snow tomorrow on the hourly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 37 minutes ago, Ahoff said: I don’t know what to tell you? My phone’s weather app, which I think runs off of TWC, keeps it all snow tomorrow on the hourly. I don’t know where any weather app or otherwise is getting the idea that this will be all snow anywhere in Allegheny County. With that being said, this is not met bashing in the slightest. Many of us have performance reviews in our jobs, and it’s certainly the case that in a government-run bureaucracy like NOAA, there would have to be some level of performance accountability when it comes to the NWS. Not that they can’t get a forecast wrong, as surely it’s obvious that there is a lot more uncertainty in what they do for a living than what most of the rest of us do. But maybe one of the performance indicators is “how many times did X forecast office issue a warning and have to downgrade it to an advisory (or vice versa)?” If you can keep it a warning, even if it’s marginal, then it keeps your office from getting dinged when it gets audited by the higher ups, who don’t necessarily care that there is way more forecast uncertainty in a place like Pittsburgh than there is in, say, Phoenix. After all, a NWS forecast office did once get reprimanded for something as arbitrary as correcting erroneous information provided by a political figure on the track and impact of a hurricane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 At least we know 200 mile NW jogs are possible in 24 hours for future reference (when needed) This is nuts. Acodcotally you sometimes see a large late shift back SE to buck the trend but this just didn’t quit. I’m curious to see how it plays out. Maybe we can get a nice front batch out of this, and more sleet to hold on to snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Also, the early look at the Thursday system on the 0z NAM doesn’t look like it’s going to be a winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Also, the early look at the Thursday system on the 0z NAM doesn’t look like it’s going to be a winner. NAM at 84 hrs good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: NAM at 84 hrs good luck Yeah, this one was a beaut at 84, and now...well, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 36 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Instead, they’ve left the 3-6” intact and still 0.1-0.2 of ice, despite many model runs to the contrary between the initial warning and the recent update. And what if 00z / 12z shifts East tomorrow? I expect they will probably tweak the forecast after 00z tonight but the threat for combination of snow sleet and freezing rain probably still merits a warning. NWS can’t flip flop every 6 hours when a weenie has a meltdown. My forecast is for 3-6 and .1-.2 ZR, which imho can still probably verify albeit in the low end of the range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 hour ago, Ahoff said: Why would going further west help? If it goes further west wouldn’t it be harder for the next one to come east enough? In theory a stronger more NW storm could serve to suppress heights in the east and boost confluence allowing the Thursday storm to track under us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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