RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 35 minutes ago, jwilson said: I can't figure out the NAM. The sounding profile says sleet, but the surface reflection shows plain rain. Possible it doesn't matter if it's overamped - although the only meso I can see with an all snow event is the WRF-NMM. Nowcast / obs from around our area should be fun, someone in western Allegheny might be ripping sleet or snow while its raining in Monroeville. (Sorry Meatwad ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I think this is the more current one. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Yeah.. I deleted it. Don't know why it won't show the correct one when you paste a direct link to the graphic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Wait, they issued a graphic at 1:23 and another less than a half hour later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, TimB84 said: Wait, they issued a graphic at 1:23 and another less than a half hour later? First one was from yesterday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 25-50 miles could be the difference. Let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A prolonged period of wintry impacts is expected Monday into Tuesday as a series of shortwaves within southwest flow move across the Upper Ohio River Valley. The first, weaker wave will see spread mainly snow over the area Monday morning, with precipitation enhancements north and west of Pittsburgh due to a strengthening upper jet and strong frontogenesis stretching from SW to NE OH. Slight warm advection will create more of a wintry mix generally southeast of Pittsburgh. After a very brief break late Monday aftn due to shortwave ridging, the second and more potent shortwave will cross the region Monday night into Tuesday. Model trends have brought the upper trough and 850mb low farther west, allowing for better warm air intrusion to the southeast of the low. If this holds, snow will be the predominant precipitation type along the I-80 corridor and east of I-77, transitioning to a combo of snow/sleet/freezing rain along the I-70 corridor (including Pittsburgh) and sleet/freezing rain/rain for northeast WV. Any shift in the 850mb low track west (east) will draw that change over line farther northwest (southeast). The combination of a strong, coupled jet, strong mid-level frontogenesis, and varying but cold enough thermal profiles, have issued a Winter Storm Warning. The warm air intrusion will likely limit snow/ice accumulation for portions of northeast WV, thus a Winter Weather Advisory was issued. Precipitation will generally dissipate through the day Tuesday as the low and sfc cold front move east of the region and a notable dry slot develops within the wake of the exiting shortwave. Cold advection will ensue as the longwave trough axis moves overnight Tuesday night, dropping area temperature well below seasonal averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Also euro still looks like a 3-6 type thump for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A prolonged period of wintry impacts is expected Monday into Tuesdayas a series of shortwaves within southwest flow move across the UpperOhio River Valley. The first, weaker wave will see spread mainly snowover the area Monday morning, with precipitation enhancements north and west of Pittsburgh due to a strengthening upper jet and strong frontogenesis stretching from SW to NE OH. Slight warm advection willcreate more of a wintry mix generally southeast of Pittsburgh. After a very brief break late Monday aftn due to shortwave ridging,the second and more potent shortwave will cross the region Mondaynight into Tuesday. Model trends have brought the upper trough and850mb low farther west, allowing for better warm air intrusion to thesoutheast of the low. If this holds, snow will be the predominantprecipitation type along the I-80 corridor and east of I-77,transitioning to a combo of snow/sleet/freezing rain along the I-70corridor (including Pittsburgh) and sleet/freezing rain/rain fornortheast WV. Any shift in the 850mb low track west (east) will drawthat change over line farther northwest (southeast). The combination of a strong, coupled jet, strong mid-levelfrontogenesis, and varying but cold enough thermal profiles, haveissued a Winter Storm Warning. The warm air intrusion will likelylimit snow/ice accumulation for portions of northeast WV, thus aWinter Weather Advisory was issued.Precipitation will generally dissipate through the day Tuesday as thelow and sfc cold front move east of the region and a notable dry slotdevelops within the wake of the exiting shortwave. Cold advectionwill ensue as the longwave trough axis moves overnight Tuesday night,dropping area temperature well below seasonal averages.Honestly it sounds like they think anything can happen too. Maybe I’ve got my snow goggles on, but I’m feeling positive. I want to smell the sleet but never transition over to it. I’m pumped for the next 48 hours. LFG . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, MikeB_01 said: Honestly it sounds like they think anything can happen too. Maybe I’ve got my snow goggles on, but I’m feeling positive. I want to smell the sleet but never transition over to it. I’m pumped for the next 48 hours. LFG . Calm yourself, Jim Cantore. LOL. Just kidding. Gonna be interesting to see what happens for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Calm yourself, Jim Cantore. LOL. Just kidding. Gonna be interesting to see what happens for sure.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 NAM came east like 20 miles. Baby steps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 23 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Honestly it sounds like they think anything can happen too. Maybe I’ve got my snow goggles on, but I’m feeling positive. I want to smell the sleet but never transition over to it. I’m pumped for the next 48 hours. LFG . Call it luck but we certainly have seen the benefits of the last minute track changes this season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: NAM came east like 20 miles. Baby steps. Yeah it brings the heavier snow axis back east a little but doesn't really help allegheny county yet. 0z run could be interesting to see if some SE movement happens again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Granted its almost game time. If the 0z makes a similar shift then its game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Granted its almost game time. If the 0z makes a similar shift then its game on. Pretty significant shift considering where we currently sit. One more move like that, in that direction and it's all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 18z GFS is awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: 18z GFS is awful. Yep basically no snow even for the first overrunning. Do I believe it? No. If the 18z euro and 0z nam bump back southeast then ill feel better about the 4-6 call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: 18z GFS is awful. Yeah won't make any friends here, looks like it brings the low further north... See if the Euro does the same. It's almost agonizing seeing that bitter cold air so close and not being able to tap into it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Yeah won't make any friends here, looks like it brings the low further north... See if the Euro does the same. It's almost agonizing seeing that bitter cold air so close and not being able to tap into it. Ehh it is Climo here. These events we always see an adjustment northwest as we approach the events. I know I can remember events where we went from 10 degrees to over 40 in a 24 hour span. This still looks like a major winter event though, just not likely to see much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Ehh it is Climo here. These events we always see an adjustment northwest as we approach the events. I know I can remember events where we went from 10 degrees to over 40 in a 24 hour span. This still looks like a major winter event though, just not likely to see much snow. The Thursday system still looks better for snow. GFS wants to give us 5” and half an inch of ice still and drag the low right across our area. I’ll believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 28 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Yeah won't make any friends here, looks like it brings the low further north... See if the Euro does the same. It's almost agonizing seeing that bitter cold air so close and not being able to tap into it. With 50" in the books, I can almost laugh at the latest GFS snow totals. MAG over in Central PA mentioned this is more of a baroclinic track, were the system doesn't create it's own cold air. So what ever sets up in the beginning, is what the majority of the storm will produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 29 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Ehh it is Climo here. These events we always see an adjustment northwest as we approach the events. I know I can remember events where we went from 10 degrees to over 40 in a 24 hour span. This still looks like a major winter event though, just not likely to see much snow. Yep, I remember multiple times as a kid watching 6pm news for weather ( I used to time them so I could catch all 3 stations, 2,4,11) with a storm projected to be all snow only to hear the pinging on my bedroom window and that feeling knowing warm air was winning. I didn't understand any of the causes then, probably why I was so interested to learn more about the science as I got older. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Yep, I remember multiple times as a kid watching 6pm news for weather ( I used to time them so I could catch all 3 stations, 2,4,11) with a storm projected to be all snow only to hear the pinging on my bedroom window and that feeling knowing warm air was winning. I didn't understand any of the causes then, probably why I was so interested to learn more about the science as I got older. Lol I did the same thing with the news. I do seem to remember more storms with solid front end thumps of at least 2-4 inches. Mainly now we seem to be going to straight ice immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: With 50" in the books, I can almost laugh at the latest GFS snow totals. MAG over in Central PA mentioned this is more of a baroclinic track, were the system doesn't create it's own cold air. So what ever sets up in the beginning, is what the majority of the storm will produce. Keyword, almost. I agree though it's not like we were counting on this storm to save winter season snow totals and it fell apart at the end. The big December and ability to telework when roads are bad has made this one of the more enjoyable winters for me to track storms and be happy with whatever falls whenever it falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Keyword, almost. I agree though it's not like we were counting on this storm to save winter season snow totals and it fell apart at the end. The big December and ability to telework when roads are bad has made this one of the more enjoyable winters for me to track storms and be happy with whatever falls whenever it falls. Yep I’ve said it multiple times...if December didn’t happen, especially the mid December storm this would be incredibly frustrating. I still don’t understand why it is so damn impossible to get an apps runner ad why we are always living right on a cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Keyword, almost. I agree though it's not like we were counting on this storm to save winter season snow totals and it fell apart at the end. The big December and ability to telework when roads are bad has made this one of the more enjoyable winters for me to track storms and be happy with whatever falls whenever it falls. Well said. Maybe these models will beat us down so bad that the storm will over perform at some point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 53 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Yep I’ve said it multiple times...if December didn’t happen, especially the mid December storm this would be incredibly frustrating. I still don’t understand why it is so damn impossible to get an apps runner ad why we are always living right on a cutoff. I know why can't there be a 1950 or 1993 redo? Never saw a storm like those, so I'd like to experience it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 A storm like 1950 probably would be a headache to predict and forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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