Burghblizz Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 You know how sometimes the NAM reels us in when we are on the western fringe? This is that run for Illinois. I doubt other guidance follows. And when it’s right or “on to something” outside 36 hours, it’s usually with rapidly deepening systems 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: You know how sometimes the NAM reels us in when we are on the western fringe? This is that run for Illinois. I doubt other guidance follows. Even with the GFS already showing it? Edit: I suppose the GFS still implies 7 inches of snow, so it’s not necessarily “showing it.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 We had bad trends correcting to final day good trends for the mid December storm, if I'm remembering correctly. Let's hope that's what we see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, TimB84 said: Even with the GFS already showing it? GFS showed it once on an off run hour. We'll likely be able to tell a little more looking at the 0z run of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: You know how sometimes the NAM reels us in when we are on the western fringe? This is that run for Illinois. I doubt other guidance follows. And when it’s right or “on to something” outside 36 hours, it’s usually with rapidly deepening systems So, just to be clear, you're thinking it's just a one off run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ahoff said: So, just to be clear, you're thinking it's just a one off run? Just saying it’s a mesoscale model that is usually over amped with a west bias outside of 36 hours. If the globals all trend that way tonight, then I’ll be more worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: You know how sometimes the NAM reels us in when we are on the western fringe? This is that run for Illinois. I doubt other guidance follows. And when it’s right or “on to something” outside 36 hours, it’s usually with rapidly deepening systems 100%. Usually its way too far NW and we get suckered in to thinking we are going to get crushed by a coastal. Doesn't mean its not right this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: 100%. Usually its way too far NW and we get suckered in to thinking we are going to get crushed by a coastal. Doesn't mean its not right this time. This. I would 100% believe this is just a one off if the 18z GFS didn’t show the exact same trend. Whether or not you can dismiss it as “it’s just the 18z” depends on who you ask, it seems. Of course, we will have an answer to that in an hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Just saying it’s a mesoscale model that is usually over amped with a west bias outside of 36 hours. If the globals all trend that way tonight, then I’ll be more worried Gotcha. Didn't know that was it's tendency. Good to know for the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Seems the NAM does well when it deals with convection. 2016 every model except the NAM had that storm further east. The NAM ended up being correct with the storm hugging the coast a lot more. I believe I don't remember the year a big blizzard was supposed to hit NYC. The NAM had a run where it said no way and the storm whiffed big time. People were pissed that they shut down the city but we are talking about 50 miles being the difference between 2 ft and 4 inches. There's a reason why Mets don't really use the NAM as much as the Euro and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity87 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Nws call seems to be pretty good at this point. Even with the big swing on the nam we are still at a 6" storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 Too much pessimism folks. Keep the faith. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Germans keeping it mostly clean in AGC (although I guess they don’t believe in other P types) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 54 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: You know how sometimes the NAM reels us in when we are on the western fringe? This is that run for Illinois. I doubt other guidance follows. And when it’s right or “on to something” outside 36 hours, it’s usually with rapidly deepening systems Yeah this is my thought too, nobody should jump off the ledge over the NAM the same way you shouldn't be dropping the "It's Happening Meme" when it bullseye's you. Now if other 00z guidance follows then backs it up at 12z tomorrow that's when I'll start to be concerned. Need to see at least 2-3 runs to establish a trend vs a wobble one way or the other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 0z GFS run doesn't look too good so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Don't shoot the messenger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity87 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Mailman said: Don't shoot the messenger. Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Oof. Let’s hope Euro holds again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Lmao. Oh well I'm ready for golf weather anyway. Less to shovel too. I hope this totally busts and we get zero snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, southpark said: Looks better than the 18z para atleast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Looks better than the 18z para atleast. true. I may die if the cutoff in Allegheny County ends up like that though...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutnOakmont Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Interestingly, I've been following the GFSv16 maps most of the winter. Generally, it's been a real stick in the mud all season--even more than the Euro most of the time. The current run coming in right now actually trends better than it has all day. It went from 3.5" for AGC to now 8"... But just barely. It just seems like the cutoff is steep and the models really don't know where that gradient will set up shop. So in short, same old sad story. What do the people in the other forums for locations that get pummeled with snow fret about if it's not the WTOD or rain/snow/mix line? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 There we have it. Another storm, another chance for the models to get our hopes up, and another 0z run that makes us go to bed disappointed. This hobby sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity87 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Good news is that it won't take much of a trend back the other way to be in a high end warning scenario? Am'rite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, SteelCity87 said: Good news is that it won't take much of a trend back the other way to be in a high end warning scenario? Am'rite? This too. Is what we are seeing a trend or is it the models wobbling back and forth? I think tomorrow's 12z models will be the do or die time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, TimB84 said: There we have it. Another storm, another chance for the models to get our hopes up, and another 0z run that makes us go to bed disappointed. This hobby sucks. You kidding me bro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, OutnOakmont said: Interestingly, I've been following the GFSv16 maps most of the winter. Generally, it's been a real stick in the mud all season--even more than the Euro most of the time. The current run coming in right now actually trends better than it has all day. It went from 3.5" for AGC to now 8"... But just barely. It just seems like the cutoff is steep and the models really don't know where that gradient will set up shop. So in short, same old sad story. What do the people in the other forums for locations that get pummeled with snow fret about if it's not the WTOD or rain/snow/mix line? Lol They don’t fret about it. I lived in a location where the only two ptypes that regularly occurred were rain and snow, and mostly snow at that, and it was fantastic. Got to experience a record snow season while I was there, and it shattered the previous record by over two feet. But Pittsburgh is home and I wouldn’t change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: You kidding me bro? We need your negativity. It helped in December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now