Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️

[Rd9108]

I'm tired and can't go to sleep until the truck is back from the fire but it looks like the Euro did improve from the 12z. We still flip on the euro but not as fast. Baby steps I guess. 

[Ahoff]

First call for the NWS is 6-8".  Gradient is 3" in Uniontown to 8" in Mercer.

NAM still looks good.

[Ahoff]

0z Euro looked really good for Thursday, all snow.

And the 6z Euro looked great for Monday-Tuesday.  We’re just north of the ice line.  Improvement there.

[CoraopolisWx]

9 hours ago, north pgh said:

I think right now we are in a good spot. 6-12 with winter storm watches going up late tomorrow afternoon for Monday Monday night. Worst case scenario 4-6 but could still go either way. 

Yeah, we're still winning with a high end advisory at worst.

[TimB]

15 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

0z Euro looked really good for Thursday, all snow.

And the 6z Euro looked great for Monday-Tuesday.  We’re just north of the ice line.  Improvement there.

0z Euro doesn’t bring us a lot of snow for Thursday but I’ll take even the 4” or so that it gives us over the GFS’s rain and 40+. Mon/Tues looks like a Youngstown special but again, 4-8” would be fine.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

NAM still looks good, but we can't afford many ticks NW from here. 

[Ahoff]

42 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

0z Euro doesn’t bring us a lot of snow for Thursday but I’ll take even the 4” or so that it gives us over the GFS’s rain and 40+. Mon/Tues looks like a Youngstown special but again, 4-8” would be fine.

Well it's early for totals, but all snow is the goal.

[Ahoff]

2 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

NAM still looks good, but we can't afford many ticks NW from here. 

None.  If it ticks SE a little, we'll allow it, but not otherwise.

[Rd9108]

2 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

NAM still looks good, but we can't afford many ticks NW from here. 

This. Hopefully its just the models overcorrecting NW and this ticks back southeast to give us some breathing room. 

[TimB]

Not liking the GFS-Para’s track at all.

[Ahoff]

Also, age old theme to gripe about here, but why would NWS not put out some type of advisory, whether WWA or Storm Watch.  They're calling for 6-8" right now, but the possibility isn't a lot of snow or little snow, it's a lot of snow, or snow and ice.  Either one should get an advisory.  I'm sure we'll have one but it'll probably go up tomorrow afternoon, smh.

[north pgh]

GFS still looks solid. No change at all 

[TimB]

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Also, age old theme to gripe about here, but why would NWS not put out some type of advisory, whether WWA or Storm Watch.  They're calling for 6-8" right now, but the possibility isn't a lot of snow or little snow, it's a lot of snow, or snow and ice.  Either one should get an advisory.  I'm sure we'll have one but it'll probably go up tomorrow afternoon, smh.

I have my theories here, the biggest one being that it seems they’ve gotten a lot more conservative with issuing winter storm watches since the bust of January 2019. I don’t know if getting raked over the coals on social media made them skittish or what.

On another note, that late week storm deepens impressively on the GFS as it moves northward, but the track continues to shift west (through Indiana now) and I don’t think this is a snow event for us. That said, it’s depicting significant ice before the warm air reaches the surface.

(But it’s back onto the idea of a significant pattern flip toward the end of the month. 64, anybody?)

[Ecanem]

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Also, age old theme to gripe about here, but why would NWS not put out some type of advisory, whether WWA or Storm Watch.  They're calling for 6-8" right now, but the possibility isn't a lot of snow or little snow, it's a lot of snow, or snow and ice.  Either one should get an advisory.  I'm sure we'll have one but it'll probably go up tomorrow afternoon, smh.

Correct me if I am wrong but I thought watches and warnings are only issued 24h in advance.  I thought past that it’s Hazardous weather outlook.

 

edit:  looks like it’s max 48 hours. So we are still just getting into that range.   

[TimB]

10 minutes ago, Ecanem said:

Correct me if I am wrong but I thought watches and warnings are only issued 24h in advance.  I thought past that it’s Hazardous weather outlook.

 

edit:  looks like it’s max 48 hours. So we are still just getting into that range.   

I would anticipate that from the afternoon shift if it’s going to happen.

[SteelCity87]

1 hour ago, north pgh said:

GFS still looks solid. No change at all 

Was worried. Nobody posted anything lol

[KPITSnow]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

I have my theories here, the biggest one being that it seems they’ve gotten a lot more conservative with issuing winter storm watches since the bust of January 2019. I don’t know if getting raked over the coals on social media made them skittish or what.

On another note, that late week storm deepens impressively on the GFS as it moves northward, but the track continues to shift west (through Indiana now) and I don’t think this is a snow event for us. That said, it’s depicting significant ice before the warm air reaches the surface.

(But it’s back onto the idea of a significant pattern flip toward the end of the month. 64, anybody?)

They were their own worst enemy with that event. All of us knew the night before it was likely going to Rain and they didn’t change.

[TimB]

2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

They were their own worst enemy with that event. All of us knew the night before it was likely going to Rain and they didn’t change.

I’m not saying them getting raked over the coals for their forecast was unjustified, but I’ll bet the people raking them over the coals didn’t understand what was happening as well as we did. Obviously I wasn’t on this forum then, but I did go back and read that part of the thread and it brought back painful memories.

[Burghblizz]

King looking a bit colder at 12z

[Mailman]

[Burghblizz]

I’m less concerned about total output at this point and more concerned with sliding that boundary to the SE. Keep some wiggle room

[KPITSnow]

25 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I’m not saying them getting raked over the coals for their forecast was unjustified, but I’ll bet the people raking them over the coals didn’t understand what was happening as well as we did. Obviously I wasn’t on this forum then, but I did go back and read that part of the thread and it brought back painful memories.

Oh no, I think most met bashing is stupid and uninformed. That said I think that kpit and done I’d the locals often come off as lazy. Kpit’s discussions are severely lacking when compare to neighboring offices. Also, the locals generally do a poor job articulating that a big event is coming. Jeff v in particular really sucks with his constant “snow showers” forecasts.

[Rd9108]

Looks like euro ticked south east from 0z. Good trends so far today. Need another few for some breathing room. Looking good for atleast a high end advisory event. 

[TimB]

5 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Oh no, I think most met bashing is stupid and uninformed. That said I think that kpit and done I’d the locals often come off as lazy. Kpit’s discussions are severely lacking when compare to neighboring offices. Also, the locals generally do a poor job articulating that a big event is coming. Jeff v in particular really sucks with his constant “snow showers” forecasts.

Kpit does seem to mail it in when it comes to some of its forecast discussions. I’ve lived in two other CWA’s and both have better forecast discussions than most of PIT’s.

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, Ecanem said:

Correct me if I am wrong but I thought watches and warnings are only issued 24h in advance.  I thought past that it’s Hazardous weather outlook.

 

edit:  looks like it’s max 48 hours. So we are still just getting into that range.   

I don't know but Central Ohio has had one since yesterday.

[Ahoff]

20 minutes ago, Mailman said:

This might be a Youngstown special, but 10-12" is special to me.

[TimB]

Just now, Ahoff said:

I don't know but Central Ohio has had one since yesterday.

Central Ohio’s goes into effect tomorrow evening at 0z, so their afternoon shift issued one approximately 48 hours before. Ours wouldn’t go into effect that early.

[TimB]

NWS’s national watch/warning/advisory map is about as wild as it gets.

[Ahoff]

3 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Central Ohio’s goes into effect tomorrow evening at 0z, so their afternoon shift issued one approximately 48 hours before. Ours wouldn’t go into effect that early.

Ours will go up an hour before the snow flies.

[Ahoff]

Whatever we end up with, it has put nearly the entire state of TEXAS in winter advisories.  I wonder if something like that has ever happened before?