Rd9108 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, Mailman said: Start time tomorrow right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigO60 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, Mailman said: Yes please! Could it be possible that by the end of this winter we will have had more snow than Erie?! Are we already ahead of them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 GFS seems to be onto the Euro’s idea of two rounds of snow, one earlier Monday and then a larger one Monday night/Tuesday morning. Hopefully it has the right idea with the strength of the second round! Looking ahead, the late week storm still seems to be trending east. Still mostly ice/rain on the GFS, but it’s coming into line with a more favorable path for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 21 minutes ago, Mailman said: I love this map, but I really hate being in the bullseye right now. That's the scary part. If this was Sunday, I'd feel good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 12 minutes ago, Ahoff said: I love this map, but I really hate being in the bullseye right now. That's the scary part. If this was Sunday, I'd feel good. I won't feel good till I see 35dbz radar returns over my house Monday night lol. No, but really all the guidance has the storm and show a narrowing goal post, so I'm starting to have confidence but models have relatively dramatic changes over shorter leads than we are used to due to handling of the PV etc. thus far this season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 18z euro looked more north with 2-4 inches across Allegheny county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I don’t understand our NWS. Their point and click from Mon.-Tues. is all snow, their Hazardous Weather Outlook, say mixed precip, with a chance of accumulating snow. I understand being conservative, but geez, at least get on the same page or close to it. On the other side TWC is bullish on this being all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The sw flow over the Upper OH is forecast to continue next week with a series of crossing shortwaves within flow defining precip chances, the most significant indicated for Tuesday. With plentiful boundary layer moisture evident in relatively warmer swly flow, ascent provided from a northern stream open wave, assisted by coupled jet and coincident near sfc frontogenesis will prime the region with the ingredients necessary for a widespread precipitation event on Tuesday. While longer range solution output varies in terms of snow accumulations (GFS vs. ECMWF), a couple of considerations should be noted. The first is that both models indicate the location of the mid-level low west and north of the forecast area. With the region located within the warm sector, this would imply the potential for a wintry mix across portions of the region (especially south of I-80) as warm advection hinders overall snow growth efficiency and introduces other hazards such as sleet/freezing rain. GEFS plumes for PIT hint at this hindrance as the operational GFS snow accumulation output is much higher than majority of other members. Other considerations include the anticipated quick progression of the storm which implies a rather progressive, open wave in conjunction with anticipated dry slotting. This translates to precipitation diminishing rather rapidly later Tuesday. Nonetheless, hazardous wintry weather should be anticipated, especially early Tuesday, and headlines may be required. This will bear watching through the course of the weekend with more updates to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Mailman said: .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The sw flow over the Upper OH is forecast to continue next week with a series of crossing shortwaves within flow defining precip chances, the most significant indicated for Tuesday. With plentiful boundary layer moisture evident in relatively warmer swly flow, ascent provided from a northern stream open wave, assisted by coupled jet and coincident near sfc frontogenesis will prime the region with the ingredients necessary for a widespread precipitation event on Tuesday. While longer range solution output varies in terms of snow accumulations (GFS vs. ECMWF), a couple of considerations should be noted. The first is that both models indicate the location of the mid-level low west and north of the forecast area. With the region located within the warm sector, this would imply the potential for a wintry mix across portions of the region (especially south of I-80) as warm advection hinders overall snow growth efficiency and introduces other hazards such as sleet/freezing rain. GEFS plumes for PIT hint at this hindrance as the operational GFS snow accumulation output is much higher than majority of other members. Other considerations include the anticipated quick progression of the storm which implies a rather progressive, open wave in conjunction with anticipated dry slotting. This translates to precipitation diminishing rather rapidly later Tuesday. Nonetheless, hazardous wintry weather should be anticipated, especially early Tuesday, and headlines may be required. This will bear watching through the course of the weekend with more updates to follow. So sounds like they are thinking far less snow. If they think that they should update the actual forecast they put out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 PD III. Lets do it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Idk something in my gut tells me this is the type of storm that jackpots Youngstown. We haven't seen one of those this season yet. We still maybe get a few sloppy inches but the euro isn't backing down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Idk something in my gut tells me this is the type of storm that jackpots Youngstown. We haven't seen one of those this season yet. We still maybe get a few sloppy inches but the euro isn't backing down. Don’t put that curse out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 0z NAM looking colder. Looking more like GFS. Still snowing at 84. It’s tight, but basically puts a diagonal line through the state from SW to NE. Northern side of the line looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Good start to the 0z suite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 That makes me feel better for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 37 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Idk something in my gut tells me this is the type of storm that jackpots Youngstown. We haven't seen one of those this season yet. We still maybe get a few sloppy inches but the euro isn't backing down. Always nice to have the Euro on our side, although it seems this season, it's had larger run to run swings than in years past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, CoraopolisWx said: Always nice to have the Euro on our side, although it seems this season, it's had larger run to run swings than in years past. Euro 100% nailed the mid december storm while the GFS had us getting like 4 or 5 inches 12 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: Always nice to have the Euro on our side, although it seems this season, it's had larger run to run swings than in years past. Anecdotal, but it historically sniffs out storms that try to cut west when they are close. I’ll start feeling real good if it’s next few runs look like NAM/GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, Mailman said: Seems it’s trended the first wave stronger and the second weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, Mailman said: We are definitely walking a tight rope with this whole set up. We need the euro to tick back east so we can have some breathing room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, Rd9108 said: We are definitely walking a tight rope with this whole set up. We need the euro to tick back east so we can have some breathing room. Agreed. Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t complain about 13.4 when it could have been 17.3, but too close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 15 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Agreed. Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t complain about 13.4 when it could have been 17.3, but too close for comfort. I wouldn’t complain about 3” or 6” as long as it’s not rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity87 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 How much further north can this thing really go? From what I can tell we're in a really good spot if you like 6+ snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Canadian appears solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Canadian... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Guess you have to be on a boat to get big snows from the Canadian. But it’s definitely a colder/more east solution. Doesn’t appear to flirt with the mixing as much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 I think right now we are in a good spot. 6-12 with winter storm watches going up late tomorrow afternoon for Monday Monday night. Worst case scenario 4-6 but could still go either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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