Mailman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Euro seems to be a little bit of an improvement from 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Mailman said: Euro seems to be a little bit of an improvement from 0z. At hour 60 little further west and stronger. Both are better for us. Not a huge improvement, but better than GFS/Can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Seems to be the best Euro run for us since Friday night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Well Euro held the line. Let's see another NAMing at 3. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 19 minutes ago, Mailman said: I’d take that! Bump it 25-50 miles west and even better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 That Euro looks great. I'd glady take 6"-9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 NAM nailed us again on the 12z. About the same totals as 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 NAM is either gonna cave hard or stick with its guns. Come on NAM and score a coupe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Mailman said: They had that up briefly yesterday and there call was 2". Good progress. But the high end to low end range is 8" down to 0". That would be brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Mailman said: Seems ok for the uncertainty in the models. Definitely conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 So we have the Euro and NAM looking like a solid 4-8 across the area, GFS is probably 3-5 and Ukmet / CMC are like 1-2 I feel the NAM and Euro are probably a bit overdone at this juncture but if we ended with say a 70-30 split between the Euro/NAM camp vs GFS and toss CMC and Ukmet we end up with a solid Advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Their discussion is conservative, as well. I miss Fries. .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Building high pressure on the van of deepening Plains low pres will bring dry weather for Tuesday with near-average temperature. That split-flow low is projected to dig over the Midwest by Wednesday and shunt a swath of mid level moisture over the Upper Ohio. Transient left-exit and coupled jet support are progged to generate broad ascent to support categorical POPs on Wednesday, mainly in the form of snow. System progression and temperature profile will be the inhibitors for snow acccumulation over much of the area as mid level warm advection degrades dendritic growth potential and as boundary layer warmth (32-34F) reduces impact potential. Nevertheless, an accumulation of heavy, wet snow is expected but with primary impact limited to the ridge-areas where a Winter Storm Watch remains in effect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 EPS mean looks to be about 6 inches, slightly worse than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: So we have the Euro and NAM looking like a solid 4-8 across the area, GFS is probably 3-5 and Ukmet / CMC are like 1-2 I feel the NAM and Euro are probably a bit overdone at this juncture but if we ended with say a 70-30 split between the Euro/NAM camp vs GFS and toss CMC and Ukmet we end up with a solid Advisory event. I noticed that the UK was gradually giving us higher totals the last few days. Started near 0 and has moved around 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I'm pretty surprised they are using temperature as an excuse to limit impact potential. Models look plenty cold enough and I would think even our best rates are looking to happen later afternoon - midnight? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Mailman said: Their discussion is conservative, as well. I miss Fries. .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Building high pressure on the van of deepening Plains low pres will bring dry weather for Tuesday with near-average temperature. That split-flow low is projected to dig over the Midwest by Wednesday and shunt a swath of mid level moisture over the Upper Ohio. Transient left-exit and coupled jet support are progged to generate broad ascent to support categorical POPs on Wednesday, mainly in the form of snow. System progression and temperature profile will be the inhibitors for snow acccumulation over much of the area as mid level warm advection degrades dendritic growth potential and as boundary layer warmth (32-34F) reduces impact potential. Nevertheless, an accumulation of heavy, wet snow is expected but with primary impact limited to the ridge-areas where a Winter Storm Watch remains in effect. Looks like they are factoring the relatively quick movement and marginal surface temperatures which give weight to the conservative approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 NAM definitely doesn't have surface temp issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Mailman said: NAM definitely doesn't have surface temp issues. It did move East in a fairly sizable way though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Looks like it cut back pretty significantly on precipitation even though the low pressure was stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, dj3 said: Looks like it cut back pretty significantly on precipitation even though the low pressure was stronger. Yep, probably halfed our totals which isn’t good given it is the NAM. Maybe the euro will win out on its own but I’m thinking a 3-6 event at best. It just stinks...when we are on the mix line the trend is always sending that line to Erie when it was initially Morgantown....and when we are on the fringe we can literally never get that 50-100 mile shift. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I think the precip coming down a little bit is due to the trough being a little flatter than it was on previous runs. Regardess of what the snowfall totals are on this run, the energy remained relatively the same 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 More in line with other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, dj3 said: More in line with other guidance And given you can usually cut NAM totals by a third or half... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, dj3 said: More in line with other guidance Just like the euro. Model watching games are in full effect right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Just like the euro. Model watching games are in full effect right now Hope for this to bust high. Nowcasting always makes for interesting things too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: I think the precip coming down a little bit is due to the trough being a little flatter than it was on previous runs. Regardess of what the snowfall totals are on this run, the energy remained relatively the same Definitely a flatter look overall looping the last few runs at 500. Question is does it continue trending that way or has it finished correcting it's bias. I'd be happy if we could lock that up as the end result haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 High res NAM (still snowing at 60h): 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, dj3 said: Definitely a flatter look overall looping the last few runs at 500. Question is does it continue trending that way or has it finished correcting it's bias. I'd be happy if we could lock that up as the end result haha. I agree. 3 days ago we were looking at no better than 2-4 with a big miss east totals. Today I would take a 5-8 easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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