Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️

[PghPirates27]

I am just glad we have so many storms to track and watch.

Last year's winter thread was only 18 pages. lol

[Ahoff]

12z GFS leaves a bit to be desired on the Mon-Tues storm.  It still looks like an improvement, but need a slight tick south still, but plenty of time.

It's showing temps in the teens, but freezing rain straddling the area.  North of downtown is looking much better than south right now.

Also, it keeps the low in GA and the Carolinas, before exiting the Virginia coast, I find it hard to believe it would pump that much warmth into the 850 level from that far south.  It's a nearly perfect track at this point, so we'll see.

[Burghblizz]

31 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

12z GFS leaves a bit to be desired on the Mon-Tues storm.  It still looks like an improvement, but need a slight tick south still, but plenty of time.

It's showing temps in the teens, but freezing rain straddling the area.  North of downtown is looking much better than south right now.

Also, it keeps the low in GA and the Carolinas, before exiting the Virginia coast, I find it hard to believe it would pump that much warmth into the 850 level from that far south.  It's a nearly perfect track at this point, so we'll see.

yeah, It’s not the typical WTOD. We would keep our snow pack and still stack 7-8” on top. 

 

[Ahoff]

33 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

yeah, It’s not the typical WTOD. We would keep our snow pack and still stack 7-8” on top. 

 

Sorry, what's WTOD?

[TimB]

Euro seems to be on about 8” of mostly snow, with about 6” in 6 hours between 6z and 12z Tues. Though it’s also mixing p-types with temps in the teens. I’ll bet my entire bank account that not one drop of rain or sleet will fall with an air temperature below 20.

[Ahoff]

3 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Euro seems to be on about 8” of mostly snow, with about 6” in 6 hours between 6z and 12z Tues. Though it’s also mixing p-types with temps in the teens. I’ll bet my entire bank account that not one drop of rain or sleet will fall with an air temperature below 20.

I know it can happen, but I'd bet it's fairly rare.  I'm with you on believing if it is that cold with precip it will likely be snow.  It just seems hard to believe to me that that much warmth up above wouldn't mix down at least somewhat to the surface.

[TimB]

Just now, Ahoff said:

I know it can happen, but I'd bet it's fairly rare.  I'm with you on believing if it is that cold with precip it will likely be snow.  It just seems hard to believe to me that that much warmth up above wouldn't mix down at least somewhat to the surface.

If I were a betting man, I’d say the 2m temperature will not drop below 20 during this event, but that’s an entirely different topic.

[Burghblizz]

1 minute ago, Ahoff said:

Sorry, what's WTOD?

Warm. Tongue. Of. Death. :-)

Euro looks to show 3 separate waves. An inch or so Saturday, a couple Monday, and then the bigger storm Monday night into Tuesday. The bigger storm tries to cut, but runs into a wall in Kentucky. Looks like it then redevelops in NC and runs up to the Delmarva.

Might not be completely clean, but certainly 8-10” through that period. 

 

[Ahoff]

12 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Warm. Tongue. Of. Death. :-)

Euro looks to show 3 separate waves. An inch or so Saturday, a couple Monday, and then the bigger storm Monday night into Tuesday. The bigger storm tries to cut, but runs into a wall in Kentucky. Looks like it then redevelops in NC and runs up to the Delmarva.

Might not be completely clean, but certainly 8-10” through that period. 

 

Ah, makes sense.  Hopefully, it is over done.

Sounds pretty good for the Euro though, I'd take it.

Also, looks like the next system the Euro has after Tuesday (Thurs.-Fri.) has come east and south from the previous run.  Better for us, but the ice it depicts is crazy throughout the state.

[TimB]

12 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Ah, makes sense.  Hopefully, it is over done.

Sounds pretty good for the Euro though, I'd take it.

Also, looks like the next system the Euro has after Tuesday (Thurs.-Fri.) has come east and south from the previous run.  Better for us, but the ice it depicts is crazy throughout the state.

GFS gives it a similar track, though slightly earlier and with slightly higher temps.

[north pgh]

24 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Warm. Tongue. Of. Death. :-)

Euro looks to show 3 separate waves. An inch or so Saturday, a couple Monday, and then the bigger storm Monday night into Tuesday. The bigger storm tries to cut, but runs into a wall in Kentucky. Looks like it then redevelops in NC and runs up to the Delmarva.

Might not be completely clean, but certainly 8-10” through that period. 

 

I know some people don’t like these clown maps but I couldn’t resist the Euro for next week. Yikes !

[Ahoff]

It's looking nice.

[Ahoff]

NWS, at this time is calling for all snow Mon-Tues.

[Mailman]

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The southwest flow ovr the Upr OH is forecast to continue next week
with shortwaves within flow defining precip chc, the most 
significant indicated for Tuesday. Current depictions are for the mid
level low to dig toward the Great Lakes, thus limiting snow and 
overall precip potential via warm advection and dry slotting. Still, 
mixed precipitation including freezing rain is expected with such a 
scenario, development which will have to be monitored.

[TimB]

Just now, Mailman said:

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The southwest flow ovr the Upr OH is forecast to continue next week
with shortwaves within flow defining precip chc, the most 
significant indicated for Tuesday. Current depictions are for the mid
level low to dig toward the Great Lakes, thus limiting snow and 
overall precip potential via warm advection and dry slotting. Still, 
mixed precipitation including freezing rain is expected with such a 
scenario, development which will have to be monitored.

Ah, so the NWS doesn’t like this pattern for snowfall. 

[dj3]

Seasonal trend has been to de-amplify things so I think we are in a pretty good spot for Mon-Tues for mainly snow. Even the late week storm next week I would think we are still in the game, although high pressure looks like its departing so maybe more cutter risk with that one. Moisture doesn't look to be a problem for the next 10 days at least.

[Ahoff]

11 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Ah, so the NWS doesn’t like this pattern for snowfall. 

Their point and click disagrees, lol!

[MikeB_01]

This will be a key race to watch regarding the monday / tuesday system. If the northern energy can get a little further south that will suppress the storm energy (circled in blue) further to the south as well. The timing of these two pieces and the positions that they take will be critical. At this point, any guess in on the table, but for right now, we are still close enough to be in the game. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

When the GFS and EURO show a snow storm at day 9... Scrolling through today's models and this song came on and my brain just connected it to this hobby...  I'm wondering why do all the  ̶M̶o̶n̶s̶t̶e̶r̶s̶ MODELS come out at night..?

 

 

[Rd9108]

So the euro ensembles are pretty solid this far out. Just from a quick glance.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 hour ago, north pgh said:

I know some people don’t like these clown maps but I couldn’t resist the Euro for next week. Yikes !

It's a message board for discussing weather, I never understood why people get so emotional over snow maps being posted. Use at your own risk, but they are like the cliff notes if I don't have time to look into things closer. Most should know they aren't to be trusted verbatim. Plus who doesn't like seeing that bright pink over your house?

[Rd9108]

Gfs looks pretty solid. 

[Burghblizz]

4 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Gfs looks pretty solid. 

Looking Cleaner. HP doing it’s job

(honestly it’s probably not worth mentioning the 12”+ swath yet - but I guess I just did )

[Rd9108]

Just now, Burghblizz said:

Looking Cleaner. HP doing it’s job

Exactly. That 1037 HP is slower and helping keep us from mixing. Although its really close to us. Regardless we are in the game. 

[Ahoff]

Chances look pretty decent for snow Mon.-Tues.  Basically aiming right at us.

 

[Ecanem]

So much to digest. 

GFS shows basically nothing on Sunday while the Euro and Canadian border on ice to snow. 

 GFS and Euro are closer in alignment for Tuesday with a big hit but its very close. 

Honestly there is so much activity it's hard to keep track.

[TimB]

So honest question: why do people view the 6z and 18z GFS as less valid than the 0z and 12z?

[Rd9108]

16 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

So honest question: why do people view the 6z and 18z GFS as less valid than the 0z and 12z?

I believe that has to do with the idea that the 6z and 18z does not get any new info fed into the operation models. I know that was the case years ago I'm not sure its the same now. 

[TimB]

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

I believe that has to do with the idea that the 6z and 18z does not get any new info fed into the operation models. I know that was the case years ago I'm not sure its the same now. 

So it’s probably just as valid. I only ask because I liked the 12z’s model of both storms next week better than the 6z and 18z. 

[MikeB_01]

3 hours ago, TimB84 said:

So honest question: why do people view the 6z and 18z GFS as less valid than the 0z and 12z?

Has to do with the data collection around the country. If you look at the observational soundings (balloon launches), most CWAs launch at 00z and 12z. This data is fed directly into the models runs at those times. Very few CWAs have launches at the 6z and 18z times. Only a few and in special circumstances will launch then.