north pgh Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Rd9108 said: A lot can change but the 12z gfs takes the low next week and rams it right into western PA. That's okay. 5 days away. Don't want to be in the bullseye. Hard to believe with this cold that the low would take that kind of cutter track. Lot's of time and would rather have the low to move east for us than west. Tonight is looking more like a 2-3 inches of snow in a 6 hour window. I think we will all take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, north pgh said: That's okay. 5 days away. Don't want to be in the bullseye. Hard to believe with this cold that the low would take that kind of cutter track. Lot's of time and would rather have the low to move east for us than west. Tonight is looking more like a 2-3 inches of snow in a 6 hour window. I think we will all take it. Historic snowfall in places like Arkansas with that track. 18” in some areas. We need a shift! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Para is a lot better than the regular GFS. I'll be curious to see the ensembles. I bet there is some good hits in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: It will depend on which layers of the atmosphere go above freezing. Models won't have a good handle on this until short range. This graphic helps visualize it: So even if the 2M temperature is 17 you could still see sleet or freezing rain if there is a warm nose somewhere in the column. A lot goes into this though, say you have a high to the north funneling in low dew point air, during heavy precipitation maybe you can wet bulb the column to 0 and get all snow, then during lulls you get drizzle / sleet. There are a lot of variables that go into figuring out p-type and snow ratios. You can't just say it's 20 degrees so ratios will be 15:1 (Not saying this is what you were implying just pointing it out.) No, I know that, I was just wondering what that snow would look like. Verbatim on that run the 850 was the only level that was that warm, but still below freezing here, so keeping the snow falling in Allegheny County. Just wonder if the snow would be wetter, or drier and fluffier with warmer atmosphere, and really cold surface. Don't think I've seen that big of a difference in air temp and upper air temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Canadian looks alright for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 20 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: A lot can change but the 12z gfs takes the low next week and rams it right into western PA. Snowing in Dallas with a 1048 H to the north. Doesn’t seem likely it would cut that hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 GFS then puts another system through our area late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 Quote Okay folks.... this is how I see it as of right now. Things will change over the next 5 days but if they do not.... 2-3 inches in a 6 hour period tonight. I'll take it. 1-3 inches Saturday afternoon . I'll take it. 4-6 inches on Tuesday . I'll take it. Maybe another storm later next week. This may be a February to remember. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 How good is the GFS-Para? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Ahoff said: How good is the GFS-Para? Better for our southern neighbors but right around the WV PA border its like a 8-16 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 WThis or this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, north pgh said: WThis or this? Yeah im thinking we shouldn't get too bent out of shape with the OPs. There is a signal for a possible big storm for our area and multiple chances at it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 21 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Better for our southern neighbors but right around the WV PA border its like a 8-16 storm. I meant like how accurate is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 24 minutes ago, north pgh said: Okay folks.... this is how I see it as of right now. Things will change over the next 5 days but if they do not.... 2-3 inches in a 6 hour period tonight. I'll take it. 1-3 inches Saturday afternoon . I'll take it. 4-6 inches on Tuesday . I'll take it. Maybe another storm later next week. This may be a February to remember. Couldn't agree more, most active tracking period in a while. I don't expect to get a flush hit from any particular wave but nice to see some appetizers for bigger potential next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Regarding what I said earlier about this year vs. 1992-93, all it takes at this point is one big event to be on the cusp of history. This run of the GFS gives us that, and if it somehow verifies verbatim (unlikely, but possible) we would be sitting at 76 inches (6 short of the record) before the end of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Alot of potential 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 19 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Wasn't really supposed to start until 4 anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Canada loving Morgantown and the border counties tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 12z Euro seems to pick up both systems next week. Both a little warmer than I’d like to see, but lots of time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Wasn't really supposed to start until 4 anyway.I know.. just enjoying the giant donut hole . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, TimB84 said: 12z Euro seems to pick up both systems next week. Both a little warmer than I’d like to see, but lots of time! The Monday night into Tuesday storm Euro is showing about .7 qpf, but it all falls with 2m temperature between 17-26 degrees. Verbatim it would be snow to sleet to freezing rain, and it would be legit freezing rain at those temperatures especially when you consider the ground will already be well below freezing with snow cover and its happening very early morning. I'm not a big ice storm fan, but if your going to do it.. do it right lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: The Monday night into Tuesday storm Euro is showing about .7 qpf, but it all falls with 2m temperature between 17-26 degrees. Verbatim it would be snow to sleet to freezing rain, and it would be legit freezing rain at those temperatures especially when you consider the ground will already be well below freezing with snow cover and its happening very early morning. I'm not a big ice storm fan, but if your going to do it.. do it right lol I would take an ice storm over 40 and rainy ten times out of ten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Would the upper atmosphere get that warm with the cold air entrenched? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 9 minutes ago, TimB84 said: I would take an ice storm over 40 and rainy ten times out of ten. I'm out on that. I already almost totaled my car on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: I'm out on that. I already almost totaled my car on Christmas. Ouch. I suppose I’d probably be of a similar opinion in any other winter. But I physically can’t slip and fall on ice and break my neck or wreck my car on an icy road on my way down the stairs to my basement office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 For next week - the setup I had been eyeing - don't worry too much about the thermal profiles right now. The bigger issue is the ridge and trough positioning. The ridge axis is way too far west which incidentally leads to troughing in the central U.S. Less than ideal. The GFS phases the northern and southern streams and that's why it cuts. It probably underestimates the arctic lobe up north, but I'm still not sure how these two elements would interact. The CMC keeps the wave open and positively tilted. It moves very quickly because of the overall context. There's still potential here. The speed of the pattern remains a problem in terms of maximizing that potential. Maybe we can simply push the best potential back and not lose it totally. TBD. We do have incoming PNA and AO spikes that might portend something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, jwilson said: For next week - the setup I had been eyeing - don't worry too much about the thermal profiles right now. The bigger issue is the ridge and trough positioning. The ridge axis is way too far west which incidentally leads to troughing in the central U.S. Less than ideal. The GFS phases the northern and southern streams and that's why it cuts. It probably underestimates the arctic lobe up north, but I'm still not sure how these two elements would interact. The CMC keeps the wave open and positively tilted. It moves very quickly because of the overall context. There's still potential here. The speed of the pattern remains a problem in terms of maximizing that potential. Maybe we can simply push the best potential back and not lose it totally. TBD. We do have incoming PNA and AO spikes that might portend something. So the setup you’re seeing continues to leave cold air entrenched over our area for most precipitation that falls to be snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 43 minutes ago, TimB84 said: I would take an ice storm over 40 and rainy ten times out of ten. I’d probably take it one out of ten (but this might be the one since we would be preserving snowpack, and for once in my life I’m not commuting daily) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 20 minutes ago, jwilson said: For next week - the setup I had been eyeing - don't worry too much about the thermal profiles right now. The bigger issue is the ridge and trough positioning. The ridge axis is way too far west which incidentally leads to troughing in the central U.S. Less than ideal. The GFS phases the northern and southern streams and that's why it cuts. It probably underestimates the arctic lobe up north, but I'm still not sure how these two elements would interact. The CMC keeps the wave open and positively tilted. It moves very quickly because of the overall context. There's still potential here. The speed of the pattern remains a problem in terms of maximizing that potential. Maybe we can simply push the best potential back and not lose it totally. TBD. We do have incoming PNA and AO spikes that might portend something. That's been the theme this winter though, more NS interaction, only to see less as we near in time.That said can't dismiss out of hand GFS depiction, but I'd hedge towards some sort of compromise between GFS / CMC solutions following the seasonal trend until proven otherwise. Agree with analyzing thermals at this juncture, if you do it's for pure entertainment purposes. The Euro depicting zr with temperatures in the low to mid 20s is not something we see around these parts very often so I thought it was interesting to point out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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