Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️

[Ahoff]

5 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said:

Lol. Yeah really.  
Although IMHO, our best pattern is no pattern. Meaning no major dominant features driving the atmosphere. 
The slightly negative AO/NAO has helped though in keeping the warm surges in check so far this winter. 

Yeah, it actually has been a great winter so far.  Can’t truly complain, I mean I will, lol but we’ve been lucky.  Would like a couple more storms (at least 3”+), this season.

[blackngoldrules]

Well, it makes sense to stay more conservative than to say it's going to be -19 this far out, lol.
 
Also, losing the snow pack with this sun today.  Hope we can rebuild soon.

I would never expect them to say -19 this far out, but they did have me at a high of 16 next Friday and they changed it pretty quickly to a high of 30, so I think initially they were going in between but now they're pretty much on board with the Euro.

[Rd9108]

We will have our chances to cash in. Atleast we are tracking and not talking about 40 and rain. 

 

[SteelCity87]

14 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

We will have our chances to cash in. Atleast we are tracking and not talking about 40 and rain. 

 

Exactly. So far this has been a great winter on every front. An all around true winter so far. 

[Mailman]

GFS looking better for late week.

[TimB]

18 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

How much is spent specifically on runing / improving the GFS? Personally I think it would be a mistake to just kill the GFS and rely on foreign agencies / governments for our weather models. (Not saying this is what you think should happen). Don't forget the Euro is at least partially privately funded and is allowed to use data from satellites etc the GFS cannot (Russian / Chinese) No doubt it has an edge in the physics department as well as a higher resolution but the GFS still schools it on pattern recognition sometimes and usually in medium to longer range forecasts you see some sort of compromise.

Anyways, looks like single digits Monday morning. NWS calling less than an inch for tomorrow.

I think ultimately this is probably a different discussion for a different day, but I don’t see an issue with these types of things being partially privately funded or using Russian/Chinese data. I would say it’s similar to my views on (to borrow an example from a completely different field, and of course both are private companies) Boeing vs. Airbus. One is unquestionably superior, despite not being American, and when I book a flight, I try to make sure I end up on a plane built by that superior company.

I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that most in the weather enthusiast community are intelligent, critical thinkers who recognize that “American” doesn’t necessarily mean “better” or “preferable,” or even “should be used simply because it’s American.” On the same critical thinking token, I’m going to assume that weather enthusiasts find scientific accuracy important and are not typically of the opinion that “we shouldn’t use Russian/Chinese data, even if it allows us to produce better forecasts, because Russia/China is bad.”

[Ahoff]

3 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

We will have our chances to cash in. Atleast we are tracking and not talking about 40 and rain. 

 

I keep seeing these nice looking maps, but it seems these never happen.

[Rd9108]

I mean there are chances coming up. I know people are acting snake bitten because we finally didn't cash in on a storm but I'd say we've done pretty well. 

[Ahoff]

37 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

I mean there are chances coming up. I know people are acting snake bitten because we finally didn't cash in on a storm but I'd say we've done pretty well. 

That map is absolutely insane...sign me up.

[TimB]

This pattern is trending much snowier and “warmer” (though still below average). I’d be willing to give up on the polar vortex if (1) we get some decent snow events, (2) we finally end our 8 month long streak of above normal temperatures and our 5 year long streak of above normal temperatures in February, and (3) we end our unprecedented streak of not dropping below 8 for two consecutive winters.

[Ahoff]

Accuweather is liking next Thursday for a 4-6" event already.

[Ahoff]

44 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

This pattern is trending much snowier and “warmer” (though still below average). I’d be willing to give up on the polar vortex if (1) we get some decent snow events, (2) we finally end our 8 month long streak of above normal temperatures and our 5 year long streak of above normal temperatures in February, and (3) we end our unprecedented streak of not dropping below 8 for two consecutive winters.

Snowier is the key.  It will still be cold, we want snow and cold.  Bare ground and -5 is very annoying.  Getting a snow pack will increase the chances of colder weather.  Let's get the snow down and worry about the brutal cold later.

[TimB]

2 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Accuweather is liking next Thursday for a 4-6" event already.

The Euro, and to a somewhat lesser extent, GFS agree. It seems Accuweather, TWC, etc. have gotten on board. The NWS, of course, is carrying its “a chance (50%) of snow showers” wording that it carries for most winter events that are more than 72 hours out around here.

[Ahoff]

Yeah, The Weather Channel is going with 4-8" on Wednesday and another 2-4" Thursday.

[TimB]

11 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Yeah, The Weather Channel is going with 4-8" on Wednesday and another 2-4" Thursday.

Still not convinced this is an all snow event, though if most of the QPF falls on the front end before the warmer air blasts in on Thursday, we could get a decent system. I trust TWC over Accuweather most of the time because Accuweather loves to put freezing rain in the forecast when it really isn’t a possibility (see their current forecast for Saturday evening, for example).

[Ahoff]

7 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Still not convinced this is an all snow event, though if most of the QPF falls on the front end before the warmer air blasts in on Thursday, we could get a decent system. I trust TWC over Accuweather most of the time because Accuweather loves to put freezing rain in the forecast when it really isn’t a possibility (see their current forecast for Saturday evening, for example).

We've had a few storms this year that were all snow that really had no business being all snow, last week's comes to mind.  The low was directly west of us and we were snowing.  Could be this follows too.

We just need a good overrunning event.

[TimB]

35 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

We've had a few storms this year that were all snow that really had no business being all snow, last week's comes to mind.  The low was directly west of us and we were snowing.  Could be this follows too.

We just need a good overrunning event.

I suppose it’s just my PTSD from the Great Rainstorm of January 19, 2019 acting up again.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Just quickly looping through the models this morning it looks very active. Going to be a dance I think keeping the TPV press to lock in "cold enough" but not push the storms SE of us.

Given the shear number of chances I'd lean towards being satisfied even with slop / mix storms especially if it all freezes into a glacier and we keep building on it. Those qpf laden packs of ice / zr / snow really have some staying power, seems like it's been awhile since that has happened.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

4 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I suppose it’s just my PTSD from the Great Rainstorm of January 19, 2019 acting up again.

Assuming the blocking remains intact its going to be hard to see a 100 percent rain event. Not impossible of course but I'd hedge my bets even a wrapped up monster cutting west would deliver at a front end thump, and most likely be forced into a miller A/B type hybrid event.

[Rd9108]

Yeah a more laxed PV its better for us. Although usually big storms form on both sides them entering and exiting the CONUS. So its a double edged sword if you want the big daddy. I wouldn't mind another month of snow and cold and then come mid March the pattern just breaks and it warms up for golf. 

[Mailman]

I'm loving this Euro run. 

[Rd9108]

5 minutes ago, Mailman said:

I'm loving this Euro run. 

Looks like our next storm is a little too south for better totals for AGH County. Our southern counties do a lot better. 

[Mailman]

[Ahoff]

What causes that Wed-Fri storm to kind of have a blow up on early Fri?

Good thing is GFS and Euro both have this type of storm, and really we're less than 5 days from the start.  Also, they both have an event Tuesday, so good news there as well.

Euro brings cold too.  Valentine's morning is -4.

[TimB]

45 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

What causes that Wed-Fri storm to kind of have a blow up on early Fri?

Good thing is GFS and Euro both have this type of storm, and really we're less than 5 days from the start.  Also, they both have an event Tuesday, so good news there as well.

Euro brings cold too.  Valentine's morning is -4.

Snow totals seem to be steady or slightly down from prior run. GFS is actually showing a low 11 for the same time period  where the Euro is -4, but the GFS brings similar cold Monday morning so it’s still a possibility.

[jwilson]

It is hard to love any of these short-term upcoming chances.  The flow is too flat and fast-moving, at least on the GFS.  There's the possibility of smaller events, clipper-like snowfall totals, but if we're looking for "the one," it isn't there yet.  We also have the northern stream polar jet pushing down on everything which can lead to more suppression like today.

The Valentine's day overall view is when things start to get more interesting.  The Miller A-like storm that comes through in 7 days would be in-and-out quick, so the top-end potential is fairly limited.  However, what I'm more interested in is what's happening out West at this time.

While the storm in the East is moving to eject under that intense NS jet, we have a low consolidating energy in the southwest.  This is more or less where we want to see a storm start digging to come across and bring the goods.  The expansive polar jet should move out of the way in time, and the retreating east coast low will hopefully setup in or near the 50/50 region to help create a proper blocking setup.

This is the eventual surface depiction once the above low has moved into the east region.  We see a nice "banana" high up top (crude banana not included).  Unfortunately, at least on the GFS, none of the energy has maintained its integrity coming across the CONUS.  It has sort of dissipated and strung out after crossing Mexico, and it doesn't re-strengthen once making it to the Gulf.  I'm not sure why this happens or if this prediction is even how it would play out.  It is something to watch.

This is the 500H plot at the same time as the surface above.  We see there's nothing particularly interesting happening.  None of the energy has remained consolidated.  But we do have a ridge pressing north on the West Coast, and compared to the rest of the time frame with a fast-moving flow, this ridge might help the trough dig in the East and blow up our storm.  Not quite an ideal axis - slightly too far west off the coast.  Again, for now, just something to watch and see how the pattern over the first half of next week can evolve.

According to the GFS, I think this is our best look and chance for something more significant.  The Canadian has a not dissimilar setup happening out west, but it phases all the energy there and moves it almost due north as a giant wrapped-up cutter.  Looks odd to me.

There are lots of pieces of energy to watch, however, and it is probable the models don't have a good handle on the atmosphere with all the moving bits.  Maybe something blows up short-term and we don't get a lot of warning time instead.

[TimB]

Sure enough, the 18z GFS continues the trend of screwing us on snow this week. No remarkable snow, no remarkable cold, just a typical February with slightly below average temps. Maybe we can at least keep our streak of sub-freezing low temps alive and continue our streak of not hitting 50. On a day that will likely end with having to watch Tom Brady win yet another Super Bowl, this run of the GFS might be the most depressing moment of the day.

[Ahoff]

^0z and 12z are more accurate anyway.  We'll see what happens.

[Rd9108]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

Sure enough, the 18z GFS continues the trend of screwing us on snow this week. No remarkable snow, no remarkable cold, just a typical February with slightly below average temps. Maybe we can at least keep our streak of sub-freezing low temps alive and continue our streak of not hitting 50. On a day that will likely end with having to watch Tom Brady win yet another Super Bowl, this run of the GFS might be the most depressing moment of the day.

Are you KPITTS alt account. You are so negative on every post. Stop just looking at model runs and taking them as gospel. 

[Mailman]

Yeah.. it's been a pretty good winter so far, in my opinion.  I could understand the negativity if we were shut out.  Active pattern for the next couple weeks.