Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

6 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

...and now the Euro brings another rain/mix storm across the region late next week, and is some 40 degrees higher than the last run for that timeframe.

[north pgh]

As of now 18HRRR shows us getting about 2 inches of snow tomorrow night. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

...and now the Euro brings another rain/mix storm across the region late next week, and is some 40 degrees higher than the last run for that timeframe. What’s more, there are only two days (Monday and Monday) where the low temperature drops below 15. Simply put, we’re not getting a cold snap and we’re not getting much snow this month. Unbelievable.

Severe cold rarely leads to big snow, the pattern required for that is usually dry. Don't get me wrong, I don't mind an Arctic blast if we have a solid snow pack or a big overrunning event with snow in the low 20s. 

The models are waffling with features (mainly the orientation / position of the PV) which in turn have downstream effects such as either pumping or squashing SE Ridge.

I'd rather have cold enough and keep the boundary just to the South of us and get a chance to roll the dice as storms ride along it.

I still think it's possible we get a blast of Arctic air at some point this month, maybe coldest of the winter. Legit cold air is nearby now so it would only take a brief interlude of cold favorable indices to deliver a shot.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

4 hours ago, Burghblizz said:

It’s likely too progressive for anything big

18z NAM ticked NW again with more negatively tilted trough. I think we are out of the game for anything big, just seems to get going to late but should NW more amplified trends continue we might be able to steal a few inches from this. Crazy when you think just a couple days ago the was so far South.

[TimB]

5 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Severe cold rarely leads to big snow, the pattern required for that is usually dry. Don't get me wrong, I don't mind an Arctic blast if we have a solid snow pack or a big overrunning event with snow in the low 20s. 

The models are waffling with features (mainly the orientation / position of the PV) which in turn have downstream effects such as either pumping or squashing SE Ridge.

I'd rather have cold enough and keep the boundary just to the South of us and get a chance to roll the dice as storms ride along it.

I still think it's possible we get a blast of Arctic air at some point this month, maybe coldest of the winter. Legit cold air is nearby now so it would only take a brief interlude of cold favorable indices to deliver a shot.

That boundary seems to be in a position on the models where any storms that ride through here will produce more rain or mix than snow, and no cold air to be found behind it. After last year’s fake “winter,” I guess I’m just missing the cold and snow that should be typical of Pittsburgh winters. We’ve gotten plenty of the snow, in fact we officially clinched an above average snowfall season this week (but of course I’d love more). But we’ve gotten the same amount of cold as last winter, which is to say none.

[Ahoff]

16 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

That boundary seems to be in a position on the models where any storms that ride through here will produce more rain or mix than snow, and no cold air to be found behind it. After last year’s fake “winter,” I guess I’m just missing the cold and snow that should be typical of Pittsburgh winters. We’ve gotten plenty of the snow, in fact we officially clinched an above average snowfall season this week (but of course I’d love more). But we’ve gotten the same amount of cold as last winter, which is to say none.

Very much disagree.  I guess your definition of cold is below 0.  But honestly it has been cold this year, no two ways about it.  Many days under 40, heck January didn't even hit 50 for the first time in 18 years, when we reached 71 in January last year.  I has been cold, just not bitter.

From Dec. 2019-Feb. 2020 there were six 60 degree or higher days, and twenty-four days at 50 or higher.

From Dec. 2020-today there has been one 60 degree day, and six days at 50 or higher.

It has been cold.

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

29 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Very much disagree.  I guess your definition of cold is below 0.  But honestly it has been cold this year, no two ways about it.  Many days under 40, heck January didn't even hit 50 for the first time in 18 years, when we reached 71 in January last year.  I has been cold, just not bitter.

From Dec. 2019-Feb. 2020 there were six 60 degree or higher days, and twenty-four days at 50 or higher.

From Dec. 2020-today there has been one 60 degree day, and six days at 50 or higher.

It has been cold.

Thank you for this!

[Ahoff]

SREF Plumes at around 3", so that's kind of good news.

[dj3]

[TimB]

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Very much disagree.  I guess your definition of cold is below 0.  But honestly it has been cold this year, no two ways about it.  Many days under 40, heck January didn't even hit 50 for the first time in 18 years, when we reached 71 in January last year.  I has been cold, just not bitter.

From Dec. 2019-Feb. 2020 there were six 60 degree or higher days, and twenty-four days at 50 or higher.

From Dec. 2020-today there has been one 60 degree day, and six days at 50 or higher.

It has been cold.

There have been fewer warm days than last year, but a similar lack of cold days. Both December and January were above normal for temperature. “Cold” to me means at or below normal for the season.

The last period of anomalous cold we had that lasted more than a day or two was in May. We had anomalously warm periods that lasted several days or more in: July, October, and November, to name a few off the top of my head. What was the last season to come in below average? Spring of 2018? Or did that ridiculously warm May where all 31 days were above average do enough to overcome March and April?

[Ahoff]

14 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

There have been fewer warm days than last year, but a similar lack of cold days. Both December and January were above normal for temperature. “Cold” to me means at or below normal for the season.

Only above average because of above average lows, but still cold overall.  December's average high was perfectly average and the January's was .1 degree above average (essentially) average.  It has been seasonably cold in my book.

[TimB]

4 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Only above average because of above average lows, but still cold overall.  December's average high was perfectly average and the January's was .1 degree above average (essentially) average.  It has been seasonably cold in my book.

I see where you’re coming from. In my book, lows are part of the picture when it comes to determining if a time period has been “warm” or “cold.” It’s merely a difference of opinion.

[Ahoff]

13 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I see where you’re coming from. In my book, lows are part of the picture when it comes to determining if a time period has been “warm” or “cold.” It’s merely a difference of opinion.

I mean technically yes, but 28 degrees is still cold vs. 21 degrees.  At least it hasn’t been highs of 45 and lows above freezing. Plus, already surpassing average seasonal snow totals.  We’re doing alright.

Could definitely be worse.

[TimB]

2 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

I mean technically yes, but 28 degrees is still cold vs. 21 degrees.  At least it hasn’t been highs of 45 and lows above freezing. Plus, already surpassing average seasonal snow totals.  We’re doing alright.

Could definitely be worse.

Certainly true. Even with the above average lows, we’ve dipped below freezing for 22 days in a row and counting. The longest such streak last year was 12.

[Ahoff]

17 hours ago, TimB84 said:

Certainly true. Even with the above average lows, we’ve dipped below freezing for 22 days in a row and counting. The longest such streak last year was 12.

And that will continue for quite some time.

[Ahoff]

SREF up to 3.6”.

[north pgh]

I just happened to look outside and getting some intense snow bands and wind. 

[TimB]

The differences between the GFS and the Euro for next weekend are absolutely mind-boggling. Euro brings us slightly below average temps, GFS is suggesting an all time record low max (-5) for Sunday after a morning low of -19 (and negative double digits as far south as Georgia). I’m sure we end up somewhere in between, but we all know the Euro usually “knows” things the GFS doesn’t.

[Ahoff]

NWS basically says we get nothing this weekend.  First miss of this "great" pattern.

[blackngoldrules]

The differences between the GFS and the Euro for next weekend are absolutely mind-boggling. Euro brings us slightly below average temps, GFS is suggesting an all time record low max (-5) for Sunday after a morning low of -19 (and negative double digits as far south as Georgia). I’m sure we end up somewhere in between, but we all know the Euro usually “knows” things the GFS doesn’t.

NWS seems to be buying what the Euro is showing based on their forecast. They usually do learn toward the Euro.

[Ahoff]

22 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said:

3 hours ago, TimB84 said:

The differences between the GFS and the Euro for next weekend are absolutely mind-boggling. Euro brings us slightly below average temps, GFS is suggesting an all time record low max (-5) for Sunday after a morning low of -19 (and negative double digits as far south as Georgia). I’m sure we end up somewhere in between, but we all know the Euro usually “knows” things the GFS doesn’t.

NWS seems to be buying what the Euro is showing based on their forecast. They usually do learn toward the Euro.

Well, it makes sense to stay more conservative than to say it's going to be -19 this far out, lol.

 

Also, losing the snow pack with this sun today.  Hope we can rebuild soon.

[Rd9108]

2 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Well, it makes sense to stay more conservative than to say it's going to be -19 this far out, lol.

It's just like predicting a snow storm. They always air on the side of caution. Not too many Mets go high for our area. Denardo maybe the only person who was willing to predict a foot. Usually you have Jeff V saying snow showers for anything under 6 inches. 

[Ahoff]

3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

It's just like predicting a snow storm. They always air on the side of caution. Not too many Mets go high for our area. Denardo maybe the only person who was willing to predict a foot. Usually you have Jeff V saying snow showers for anything under 6 inches. 

That's too true, lol.

[KPITSnow]

3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

It's just like predicting a snow storm. They always air on the side of caution. Not too many Mets go high for our area. Denardo maybe the only person who was willing to predict a foot. Usually you have Jeff V saying snow showers for anything under 6 inches. 

God, him saying snow showers always ticks me off. If it’s a 3-5 event it’s not “snow showers”

[TimB]

18 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

It's just like predicting a snow storm. They always air on the side of caution. Not too many Mets go high for our area. Denardo maybe the only person who was willing to predict a foot. Usually you have Jeff V saying snow showers for anything under 6 inches. 

Agree on all counts, forecasting conservatively a week out is really the only option. The latest GFS nudged about 10 degrees warmer and will likely fall in line at some point. As for “snow showers,” I’ve seen the NWS be guilty of that too, many times. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

6 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Agree on all counts, forecasting conservatively a week out is really the only option. The latest GFS nudged about 10 degrees warmer and will likely fall in line at some point. As for “snow showers,” I’ve seen the NWS be guilty of that too, many times. 

GFS has a cold bias in the long range. So I'd take any cold it's showing let alone record negative double digits with several grains of salt until closer in time and corroboration from other guidance.

That being said, way to far out to know what will happen end of next week in terms of any storm. Can't expect models to lock onto the correct outcome at this point. Looks like we have a shot at a couple lighter snows earlier this week, focus on those for now if you want to save yourself some stress and irritation.

[TimB]

32 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

GFS has a cold bias in the long range. So I'd take any cold it's showing let alone record negative double digits with several grains of salt until closer in time and corroboration from other guidance.

That being said, way to far out to know what will happen end of next week in terms of any storm. Can't expect models to lock onto the correct outcome at this point. Looks like we have a shot at a couple lighter snows earlier this week, focus on those for now if you want to save yourself some stress and irritation.

I’m just going to go on the record and say that I’m not expecting -19 or even double digits below zero, but to me, if the GFS forecasts a temperature like that and then the Euro ends up verifying with lows in the mid-teens above zero, that is just another nail in the coffin of proving that the GFS is an undeniably inferior model that isn’t worth our tax dollars. We’re not talking about a model being off by 10 degrees a week out. We’re talking about 40 degrees or so at some junctures. I’m not fully on board the “stop wasting our tax dollars on the GFS” train, but I’m a lot closer to it than some are.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

35 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I’m just going to go on the record and say that I’m not expecting -19 or even double digits below zero, but to me, if the GFS forecasts a temperature like that and then the Euro ends up verifying with lows in the mid-teens above zero, that is just another nail in the coffin of proving that the GFS is an undeniably inferior model that isn’t worth our tax dollars. We’re not talking about a model being off by 10 degrees a week out. We’re talking about 40 degrees or so at some junctures. I’m not fully on board the “stop wasting our tax dollars on the GFS” train, but I’m a lot closer to it than some are.

How much is spent specifically on runing / improving the GFS? Personally I think it would be a mistake to just kill the GFS and rely on foreign agencies / governments for our weather models. (Not saying this is what you think should happen). Don't forget the Euro is at least partially privately funded and is allowed to use data from satellites etc the GFS cannot (Russian / Chinese) No doubt it has an edge in the physics department as well as a higher resolution but the GFS still schools it on pattern recognition sometimes and usually in medium to longer range forecasts you see some sort of compromise.

Anyways, looks like single digits Monday morning. NWS calling less than an inch for tomorrow.

[CoraopolisWx]

4 hours ago, Ahoff said:

NWS basically says we get nothing this weekend.  First miss of this "great" pattern.

Lol. Yeah really.  
Although IMHO, our best pattern is no pattern. Meaning no major dominant features driving the atmosphere. 
The slightly negative AO/NAO has helped though in keeping the warm surges in check so far this winter. 

[MikeB_01]

It's just like predicting a snow storm. They always air on the side of caution. Not too many Mets go high for our area. Denardo maybe the only person who was willing to predict a foot. Usually you have Jeff V saying snow showers for anything under 6 inches. 

Triggered lol. No one drives me more insane than Jeff V. The “most accurate” weather forecast. He’s never wrong because he never makes a prediction.


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