Burghblizz Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 A significant shift is doable because we are talking about phase/no phase and the timing. So I wouldnt be suprised if it jumps one way or another in the next 24 hours of models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 GFS has three shots of snow over the next 10 days. Can't complain about that. With the way this winter has been going, all three will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Wouldn't be surprised if headlines are needed overnight. The ground seems colder than expected, especially the sheltered hollows and ravines around the city. Roads could be slick in spots tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Stolen from a met from the Mid Atlantic forum I know everyone here is very interested in mainly the snow chances for the extended, but I cannot understate how insane this cold signature is for the entire CONUS on guidance right now. This would rival some of the top cold outbreaks of all time. Even the ensembles are hinting at some historic level cold over the country. There will be lots of squall potential in this setup too with that Valentines Day period that @Eskimo Joe brought up above my post as the most aggressive time frame for it. Globals will not see that squall potential until it's within short range either. Bundle up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Does the radar look snowier than expected tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 30 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Stolen from a met from the Mid Atlantic forum I know everyone here is very interested in mainly the snow chances for the extended, but I cannot understate how insane this cold signature is for the entire CONUS on guidance right now. This would rival some of the top cold outbreaks of all time. Even the ensembles are hinting at some historic level cold over the country. There will be lots of squall potential in this setup too with that Valentines Day period that @Eskimo Joe brought up above my post as the most aggressive time frame for it. Globals will not see that squall potential until it's within short range either. Bundle up GFS is showing three days in a row from Feb. 14-16 that have PIT colder than any temperature ever recorded so late in the winter season. Obviously a long way to go until then and it will change about 100 times, but -15 on Valentine’s Day is unprecedented (at this juncture, the Euro also shows negative double digits that morning). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, TimB84 said: GFS is showing three days in a row from Feb. 14-16 that have PIT colder than any temperature ever recorded so late in the winter season. Obviously a long way to go until then and it will change about 100 times, but -15 on Valentine’s Day is unprecedented (at this juncture, the Euro also shows negative double digits that morning). Also, would have to be the coldest in a few decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Also, would have to be the coldest in a few decades. Someone can probably verify this but I’m going to say anecdotally we haven’t been below -10 since that infamous day in 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Getting a rain snow mix in Bethel right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 12 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Someone can probably verify this but I’m going to say anecdotally we haven’t been below -10 since that infamous day in 1994. 2009 and 2015 saw double digits below zero officially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 13 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Someone can probably verify this but I’m going to say anecdotally we haven’t been below -10 since that infamous day in 1994. That'd be my guess too. We hit -10 in 2015 and 2009 I believe, but could say if anything lower has been achieved since 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Burghblizz said: 2009 and 2015 saw double digits below zero officially. Yes, both -10, though nothing lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I admit I was kind of excited in ‘94 to get to -22. Felt like I was seeing history and so I definitely rooted for it. But I can probably take or leave extreme cold at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Giant flakes right now in Mt. Lebanon. Looks awesome outside right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Giant flakes right now in Mt. Lebanon. Looks awesome outside right now.I've been seeing a mix but sometimes it comes down as all snow and it's huge flakes. I've always loved the size of the snow flakes when it's getting ready to mix or change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said: 8 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Giant flakes right now in Mt. Lebanon. Looks awesome outside right now. I've been seeing a mix but sometimes it comes down as all snow and it's huge flakes. I've always loved the size of the snow flakes when it's getting ready to mix or change over. Yes just noticed the mix too. Definitely having some rain mix in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 21 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: I admit I was kind of excited in ‘94 to get to -22. Felt like I was seeing history and so I definitely rooted for it. But I can probably take or leave extreme cold at this point. I could take or leave extreme heat, but I was rooting for 100 when the models were showing it for a time this past summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 here is the top 10 coldest three day lows on record. If the GFS has the right idea for Feb 14-16, we are looking at a top 5 cold outbreak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: here is the top 10 coldest three day lows on record. If the GFS has the right idea for Feb 14-16, we are looking at a top 5 cold outbreak. Incredibly rare in February, considering both of the February outbreaks in that table were actually the same cold wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just for fun --> Here is the 2m anomaly for that outbreak in 94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 16 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Incredibly rare in February, considering both of the February outbreaks in that table were actually the same cold wave. And 122 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Alas, that magnitude of cold disappeared from the models (though I think we get at least one subzero morning at some point. What day or days that will be is anyone’s guess). And confidence seems to be increasing that we finally get a colder than average February after several unseasonably warm ones. And maybe some good snow! (Though, again, when and how much seems to widely vary.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Models still aren't exciting me. Sunday is still too far east, a few runs bring us very little snow, or a front instead of the storm. Interesting though that a lot show a storm to the east and a front coming from the west. Euro still has a few nights below 0, GFS much less cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, Ahoff said: Models still aren't exciting me. Sunday is still too far east, a few runs bring us very little snow, or a front instead of the storm. Interesting though that a lot show a storm to the east and a front coming from the west. Euro still has a few nights below 0, GFS much less cold. GFS seems to be a more active pattern but no significant snow events. The Euro puts us close to -10 Fri/Sat, the 6z GFS puts us there Sat/Sun before dragging yet another system with more rain/mix than snow up the coast early the following week. Edit: I lied, not rain since temps will be below freezing based on that model. But a half inch of snow and not that much QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 GFS bringing 2”- 4” into the Mon Valley Sunday. So not quite dead yet for at least some accum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The NAM is tricking these people into thinking they are getting a 8-12 if not more storm. I'll take any snow at this point and wait for 93 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Rd9108 said: The NAM is tricking these people into thinking they are getting a 8-12 if not more storm. I'll take any snow at this point and wait for 93 redux. It’s likely too progressive for anything big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Gfs is starting to show more snow chances coming up atleast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 12z GFS doesn't have a ton of snow. Looks a bit better than earlier, so positive moves for Sunday and next week. But the cold it brings! Valentine's Day low is -17, second coldest ever in February and one of the coldest ever temperatures. Then a high of only 0-2 degrees. Then -2 the next morning. NAM's a stinker for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 ...and now the Euro brings another rain/mix storm across the region late next week, and is some 40 degrees higher than the last run for that timeframe. What’s more, there are only two days (Monday and Monday) where the low temperature drops below 15. Simply put, we’re not getting a cold snap and we’re not getting much snow this month. Unbelievable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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