Ahoff Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Models aren't too great for this week from overnight. -NAM offers best chance of snow for Thursday-Friday, but temps are above freezing the whole time, then NAM doesn't drop much cold in, in fact keeps temperatures above freezing quite often on Saturday into early Sunday. -GFS has rain for Thursday-Friday, then cold and nothing basically for the next week. -Euro has rain mostly for Thursday-Friday, cold, nothing Sunday at all, a sneaky Tuesday event that shows 3-6", then really cold back half of week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 37 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Models aren't too great for this week from overnight. -NAM offers best chance of snow for Thursday-Friday, but temps are above freezing the whole time, then NAM doesn't drop much cold in, in fact keeps temperatures above freezing quite often on Saturday into early Sunday. -GFS has rain for Thursday-Friday, then cold and nothing basically for the next week. -Euro has rain mostly for Thursday-Friday, cold, nothing Sunday at all, a sneaky Tuesday event that shows 3-6", then really cold back half of week. Don't forget the ICON model which gives us the MOST snow for Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Why is the latest Euro showing 47 for next Tuesday at Pittsburgh? What is happening?!?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Looks like you may have to wait a little while longer on the Euro for the cold (Day 8). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Is this level of model spread typical of Arctic outbreaks in this region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 30 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Why is the latest Euro showing 47 for next Tuesday at Pittsburgh? What is happening?!?!?! 47! The previous run had it snowing and 18 degrees on Tuesday! What the Hell is going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ahoff said: 47! The previous run had it snowing and 18 degrees on Tuesday! What the Hell is going on? Yes, drives a low from the MO/AR/TN border to Lake Erie, which would put us firmly in the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 12 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Yes, drives a low from the MO/AR/TN border to Lake Erie, which would put us firmly in the warm sector. That's an absolute massive swing in one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 29 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Why is the latest Euro showing 47 for next Tuesday at Pittsburgh? What is happening?!?!?! Models are pulling back on the Arctic blast, maybe a delayed but not denied type deal, but what was once looking pretty brutal has moderated due to the trend to pop a ridge in the East in response to splitting the PV rather than one elongated piece of the PV with majority of the energy in the East. Now look at today, PV is split with the stronger piece out west, pumping a ridge that connects all the way up the NAO block. Throw a storm into that 500 map and you can see anything that develops would likely go to the west of us and pump heights even more with SW flow ahead of it. Recipe for a warm up for sure. Going a few days out from here the piece of PV out west rotates eastward and I would think some cold will follow. That of course assuming that progression is correct. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Models are pulling back on the Arctic blast, maybe a delayed but not denied type deal, but what was once looking pretty brutal has moderated due to the trend to pop a ridge in the East in response to splitting the PV rather than one elongated piece of the PV with majority of the energy in the East. Now look at today, PV is split with the stronger piece out west, pumping a ridge that connects all the way up the NAO block. Throw a storm into that 500 map and you can see anything that develops would likely go to the west of us and pump heights even more with SW flow ahead of it. Recipe for a warm up for sure. Going a few days out from here the piece of PV out west rotates eastward and I would think some cold will follow. That of course assuming that progression is correct. I would say more likely denied than delayed, as that’s what almost always happens in Pittsburgh. I firmly believe we’ll never see another subzero temperature here, or another February that averages below the calculated normals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity87 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 4 hours ago, Ahoff said: Total for Pittsburgh ended up at 8.9" after that burst last night. Everything about this storm was strange. Including the official total lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 One thing this winter has lacked is serious arctic air. Hopefully we get a nice arctic front to roll through with some white bands and then we can get a big storm. I think the models are gonna have a hard time with figuring out everything for a bit. The NAO and AO are negative. We should be going into phase 8 of the MJO and the only issue is that pesky SE ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 8 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: One thing this winter has lacked is serious arctic air. Hopefully we get a nice arctic front to roll through with some white bands and then we can get a big storm. I think the models are gonna have a hard time with figuring out everything for a bit. The NAO and AO are negative. We should be going into phase 8 of the MJO and the only issue is that pesky SE ridge. I like your optimism. I could even live with 47 on Tuesday if it’s followed by -15 by Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 hour ago, TimB84 said: I would say more likely denied than delayed, as that’s what almost always happens in Pittsburgh. I firmly believe we’ll never see another subzero temperature here, or another February that averages below the calculated normals. Are you actually being serious? That's an absurb claim. Just two years ago we dropped below 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 42 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: One thing this winter has lacked is serious arctic air. Hopefully we get a nice arctic front to roll through with some white bands and then we can get a big storm. I think the models are gonna have a hard time with figuring out everything for a bit. The NAO and AO are negative. We should be going into phase 8 of the MJO and the only issue is that pesky SE ridge. A tricky balancing act. If we go too cold, that's how you end up with cold and dry conditions (which is what was initially depicted). We need the boundary south of us, but we don't want it too far south otherwise you're talking about North Carolina snowstorms. Given the Nina winter - which favors a SE ridge - and the negative blocking pattern, that could ideally pinch the trough into the right position when combined. It is always possible we work through this pattern and get nothing. Still, like you said all the teleconnections look primed, and any warmups should be short-lived due to cutters pumping the ridge in the east. While the block recycles, once beyond, cutters won't be possible and the main concern will be suppressed systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 hours ago, Ahoff said: Are you actually being serious? That's an absurb claim. Just two years ago we dropped below 0. My apologies, I agree that it’s absurd. That was just me, a self-proclaimed unapologetic cold weather enthusiast venting my frustration that our shot at a true Arctic blast, and probably our last shot at subzero temperatures this winter, vanished right before our eyes. With that being said, the 1981-2010 average absolute minimum for DJF at PIT is 0, which would indicate that in approximately half of winters, the temperature drops below that at least once, so I wouldn’t say we dropped below zero “just” two years ago, as it’s statistically expected that would occur every two years. In fact, it’s very possible with this new trend in models that we could hit 3 years since the temperature even dropped to 5F at PIT (1/31/19 - _/_/22), and I’m wondering if that would be a record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 16 minutes ago, TimB84 said: My apologies, I agree that it’s absurd. That was just me, a self-proclaimed unapologetic cold weather enthusiast venting my frustration that our shot at a true Arctic blast, and probably our last shot at subzero temperatures this winter, vanished right before our eyes. With that being said, the 1981-2010 average absolute minimum for DJF at PIT is 0, which would indicate that in approximately half of winters, the temperature drops below that at least once, so I wouldn’t say we dropped below zero “just” two years ago, as it’s statistically expected that would occur every two years. In fact, it’s very possible with this new trend in models that we could hit 3 years since the temperature even dropped to 5F at PIT (1/31/19 - _/_/22), and I’m wondering if that would be a record. 1952-1954 only dropped to 5 at the lowest over the three years. From 49-54, one of six years dropped below 0. Where on the flip side 2014-2019 (very recently), five out six years went below zero, with the sixth year reaching 0. I wouldn't worry about not reaching below 0 again. This year, maybe, but not never again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Ahoff said: 1952-1954 only dropped to 5 at the lowest over the three years. From 49-54, one of six years dropped below 0. Where on the flip side 2014-2019 (very recently), five out six years went below zero, with the sixth year reaching 0. I wouldn't worry about not reaching below 0 again. This year, maybe, but not never again. And yet, even in that time period, there were never consecutive winters where the temperature never went below 8. What’s more concerning to me is that for the past 5 years, February has been basically the first month of spring (about 5 degrees above normal on average), and I’m concerned that it’s not going to change this year. Or that we’re in the midst of a second stretch in less than 6 years of 18 consecutive months above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, TimB84 said: And yet, even in that time period, there were never consecutive winters where the temperature never went below 8. What’s more concerning to me is that for the past 5 years, February has been basically the first month of spring (about 5 degrees above normal on average), and I’m concerned that it’s not going to change this year. Or that we’re in the midst of a second stretch in less than 6 years of 18 consecutive months above normal. It’s still early in February, there’s no reason to think it won’t get below 8. Still a chance we get near 0 next week. There was a stretch just before this warm stretch where February’s were cold. It’ll go back. Plus, so far this month doesn’t look all that warm, just not ridiculously cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ahoff said: It’s still early in February, there’s no reason to think it won’t get below 8. Still a chance we get near 0 next week. There was a stretch just before this warm stretch where February’s were cold. It’ll go back. Plus, so far this month doesn’t look all that warm, just not ridiculously cold. I’m aware that February 2015 was one of the coldest months relative to normal ever recorded at PIT outside of those ridiculous winters of the ‘70s, and that it’s still recent history. To be fair, I also thought we’d never see another May below normal and I was proven wrong last year (though we still almost ended up above normal despite an absurdly cold first half of the month). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 12 minutes ago, TimB84 said: I’m aware that February 2015 was one of the coldest months relative to normal ever recorded at PIT outside of those ridiculous winters of the ‘70s, and that it’s still recent history. To be fair, I also thought we’d never see another May below normal and I was proven wrong last year (though we still almost ended up above normal despite an absurdly cold first half of the month). It's a pattern. We'll see these things again. Felt like I'd never see a nice dry summer again, and last year was just perfect. Too bad nobody could do anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Things have gotten worse. Thurs-Fri is mostly rain, maybe backend snow on NAM. Sunday is non existent. Tuesday has changed to rain, and next Thursday doesn't exist either. Great pattern seems to be falling apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Wouldn't give up on Sunday for a light snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Wouldn't give up on Sunday for a light snowfall If we could dial up #11, that'd be incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 What the Hell, lol!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Trend is our friend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Looks like there is potential for something bigger from around Feb 12-15th time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, dj3 said: Trend is our friend? I mean can't deny that NAM and improvements on the other models. Maybe we'll sneak out a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ahoff said: I mean can't deny that NAM and improvements on the other models. Maybe we'll sneak out a few inches. Looks to be a quick mover but I would take any snow to refresh what gets washed away later tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Only need like 400 mile change https://i.imgur.com/lTBW9VS.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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