Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️

[Mailman]

GFS looking a little bit better compared to previous runs for precip on our side of the state.

[KPITSnow]

3 minutes ago, Mailman said:

GFS looking a little bit better compared to previous runs for precip on our side of the state.

You're in a much better spot than most of us for this. I could see you getting 10 inches while Pittsburgh gets 4.

[KPITSnow]

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

NAM has ticked east. Let's hope for an overperformer but this isn't our storm. 

Hah...feel like you could say this on almost every storm. I know we have had one 10+ inch storm the last decade or so, and that was the March 21st 2018 storm, which while it was nice, it was the first day of spring, didn't stick on roads, and compacted down to like 5 inches immediately lol.

Edit: I just checked and not sure that was even 10+ inches?

[Rd9108]

18z gfs is better than the 12z. That would be a good trend if it could continue. I'm at work so can't really check to see why it is. Verbatim shows around 4-6 type. 

[Mailman]

PBZ has 2-3" area-wide thru 7:00pm Wednesday.  

[jwilson]

5 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

The setup is such that Pittsburgh would do well with a miller B type scenario. The problem is the Ohio Valley low isn't very strong and we're transferring to the coast pretty early, making the bulk of the precip shield associated mainly with the coastal low. You hold that Ohio Valley low just a bit longer and stronger and you can likely get a slightly better easterly fetch into western PA to the Ohio Valley and perhaps maintain a better precip shield across western PA. I don't think this region is in play for what's looking like a swath of excessive totals somewhere further east BUT I do think low end warning totals can be achieved if the more amplified solutions have their way. We'll need the meso models to get more into range to see if that idea has any legs.

For now though, I have pretty decent confidence with Pittsburgh metro and surrounding seeing at least a decent higher end advisory event by the end of this. I think the GFS is just a bit too tight and SE with it's swath. 12z Euro coming in a tad SE with it's heavy swath and appeared a bit weaker on the Ohio Valley side of things (def NOT on the coastal end), but maintains the advisory totals over the area. 

 

Appreciate the thoughts.  I haven't lived here all my life, but in the time that I have, I can't remember Pittsburgh ever scoring significantly in a Miller B setup.  For "significant" I consider 8" or more.  I could certainly be wrong or misremembering, anyone care to fill in the gaps?  Seems Pittsburgh metro, at least, does best in either big overrunning, Miller A events, or convoluted setups that aren't either traditional coastal "nor'easter" types.  '93 was obviously unique and likely never equaled, and I don't know 1950 or 1890 well enough to define them.

[Rd9108]

I'm betting that when I wake up at 2AM at work that I will see some good trends on the models. Just a feeling. 

 

18z euro tells me to **** off and enjoy the 2016 cutoff

[RitualOfTheTrout]

37 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

I'm bettingthat when I wake up at 2AM at work that I will see some good trends on the models. Just a feeling. 

 

18z euro tells me to **** off and enjoy the 2016 cutoff

The general trend today has been to shift the totals east. Given the setup I had in my head 6 inches was probably the upper limit on this for us. If I had to put out a guess based on today's runs I'd say 2-4.

[KPITSnow]

This is likely going to be another very painful storm for us to watch. We might squeeze out a few inches while places an hour or two drive away see a foot and a half. Thank goodness we got that nice event already or this forum would likely be ready to jump off a cliff. 

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

20 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

This is likely going to be another very painful storm for us to watch. We might squeeze out a few inches while places an hour or two drive away see a foot and a half. Thank goodness we got that nice event already or this forum would likely be ready to jump off a cliff. 

I agree I just keep hope that it can nudge 50-75 miles west...

[Mailman]

NAM'd.  

[KPITSnow]

Hopefully the NAM is picking up on a trend! The mid atlantic forum is melting down a bit which I love to see

[meatwad]

https://imgur.com/a/Qzb9nKk

[north pgh]

8 minutes ago, meatwad said:

https://imgur.com/a/Qzb9nKk

I think you can cut those numbers in half.

[Mailman]

[KPITSnow]

Just now, Mailman said:

Yuck

[north pgh]

1 hour ago, KPITSnow said:

Yuck

Every 10 years or so we will get in double digits, but when these types of storms happen we will always be on the edge. Most of us will take our 2-4 or 3-5 and run with it. It beats nothing. One of these times though like in the 1970’s and 1990’s, we will get a surprise dump. It ain’t happening here unless we get a 50-75 mile western shift. One of these days! One of these days Alice! Pow!! right in the kisser. 

[Rd9108]

Glad I was sleeping during that debacle of a game. The EPS moved in our favor atleast. Maybe we do sneak out another 6-8 type storm which would anybody complain even if out east they get 12-18? Our time will come but this storm is not it. 

 

[Rd9108]

Its almost like its the same script everytime. We start to see some promising trends for a suite of two and then boom it disappears. Look we even have a NAMing 

[Rd9108]

Looks like the NAM closes off the low and is tucked. 

Likely the NAM being the NAM. The 6z GFS did tick a slight bit west but looks nothing like the NAM. Maybe the NAM steals a victory but no other guidance looks like this. Still time for things to change and we've seen now casting where a low ends up 50 miles west or east of the major models. 

[Burghblizz]

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

Looks like the NAM closes off the low and is tucked. 

Likely the NAM being the NAM. The 6z GFS did tick a slight bit west but looks nothing like the NAM. Maybe the NAM steals a victory but no other guidance looks like this. Still time for things to change and we've seen now casting where a low ends up 50 miles west or east of the major models. 

Noticed that as well. Will be interesting if that keeps showing up. NAM might be overly optimistic, but it seems the upper levels as it depicts it supports its track 

[Rd9108]

12 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Noticed that as well. Will be interesting if that keeps showing up. NAM might be overly optimistic, but it seems the upper levels as it depicts it supports its track 

Fully expecting for the NAM to cave to the gfs next run. I'm still think we get a 4-8 type storm which would be a decent thump and a good way to start the season. 

[OutnOakmont]

This is my third season in this forum and I've learned so much from everybody. Through the few hits and many, many near misses we've had, I now accept whatever sadness the Euro produces haha. Imo it seems to be the most right, most often. Having said that, the Euro really likes the low swooping right over the Delmarva peninsula. I feel like if it could track a hair west and travel up the Chesapeake, which is not an uncommon track, that could make a difference for us in Pittsburgh. Looking at the Euro maps, all that stands between the garbage zone and the jackpot for us is Westmoreland County. 

[north pgh]

Trends are in our favor. Yesterday we were in the 10% range for 4+ inches. 

Today we are in the 40%. Let’s hope tomorrow we can make it to the 70%. 

[jwilson]

It's amazing to see how far apart the NAM and another meso model like the RGEM are in placement.  I don't know that I've seen such a difference when considering the time frame.

This is more instinct than anything, but I'm getting the sense this is modeled as an overperformer for certain eastern metro/urban areas.  It is screaming sleet storm to me with a warm-water driven SE flow.  Relatively marginal cold.  This isn't like the cold air that preceded 2009 (low to mid 20s).  Is the GFS too progressive?  Now I don't know that things will shift as far west as the NAM likes, but as usual, a blend might be the best way to go.  The Euro is kind of in the middle.  It isn't great for our area, though.

[Mailman]

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build ewd from MI in the wake of the daytime 
wave. Modest potential for light lake-enhanced snow showers to the 
north of I-80 lingers this evening for a few hours before dry air and
subsidence erode any remaining CAPE. High pressure will remain
dominant through Tue eve as a strong low develops in the Plains.

As this Plains low advances ewd toward the Ohio Valley, coastal low
pressure will strengthen considerably as an upper-level jet advances
ewd. Strong upward motion associated with the left exit region of
this jet/possible pairing with a secondary jet's right entrance
region will favor high precipitation rates Wed afternoon and early
eve, especially across the sern half of the forecast area.

While precipitation rates will be high and vertical motion will be
strong through the dendritic growth zone, increasing warmth aloft 
and sfc temperature in the 32-34F range will reduce snow ratios a 
bit, leading to a heavy, wet snow. The highest totals will occur se 
of a line from DUJ-CKB, where upward motion will be maximized and 
terrain will facilitate colder low-level temp.

There will be a sharp gradient in higher totals nw from this axis,
but snow is expected in all locales at some point on Wed aftn.

A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Wed/Wed night focused
especially on the ridge zones, where highest totals and impactful
heavy, wet snow are expected. An advisory likely will be needed
adjacent to these zones, which will be highlighted in the HWO.

[Rd9108]

6z Euro good trend 

 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

38 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

6z Euro good trend

That's the best the Euro has looked for several runs now. Seems there is little NW shift with all the 6z models.

[Ahoff]

That recent NAM run was crazy, even the one before was nice.  I know it is near the end of it's range so, grain of salt and all, but the trend is nice.  Euro looks pretty nice as well.  Good trends today.  Let's keep it up!

Also, Ron Smiley, on KDKA, this morning mentioned this could be "the big one", but wouldn't commit to giving totals right now.  Says there's a lot on the table.  Maybe he looked a the NAM?

[KPITSnow]

12z NAM SMOKES us.