KPITSnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, dj3 said: Looks like the initial slug is trending south on the HRRR. Is that bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, KPITSnow said: Is that bad? It seems to go against the theory that we want a stronger primary that holds on longer but like those who are more knowledgeable have been saying it’s walking a fine line with that and mixing. For me at least I’m worried about not getting enough precip thrown our way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 SREFs hav dropped to 6.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Such a fine line with this set up. Thats why Miller Bs suck for our area. I'm not expecting a huge storm or anything. This is just a stat padder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 All in on the 18z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Maybe I should stop looking at the HRRR lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Rd9108 said: All in on the 18z Euro Beat me to it haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 23 minutes ago, dj3 said: Maybe I should stop looking at the HRRR lol. Hmmmm 17inches would really surprise a lot of people. 2010 part 2???? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 KPIT did a really good job with the december event. I am not 100% sure what they are doing with this one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Figures that the 0z NAM is literally the first model I have looked at this storm and it is an absolute mess. We get a decent amount of QPF, like .5 inch or a bit more but it is over like 36 hours of light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Figures that the 0z NAM is literally the first model I have looked at this storm and it is an absolute mess. We get a decent amount of QPF, like .5 inch or a bit more but it is over like 36 hours of light snow. Please do not look at anymore, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Which are the most reliable mesoscales? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Sref mean is back up it seems. I feel like this is a now casting thing for us now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Which are the most reliable mesoscales?I say it every storm, and I’m sure I’m in the minority here, but I love the SREFs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, MikeB_01 said: I say it every storm, and I’m sure I’m in the minority here, but I love the SREFs . Honestly, I've noticed that they are usually very much in the ballpark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: I say it every storm, and I’m sure I’m in the minority here, but I love the SREFs . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Sref mean is back up it seems. I feel like this is a now casting thing for us now. Yeah, highest so far, 9.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Mailman said: Still not a bad outcome. It was a weird evolution all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Mailman said: Again, very important to note here that this literally does fall over almost two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, KPITSnow said: Again, very important to note here that this literally does fall over almost two days. Fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Mailman said: Fine by me. See I think the problem is that with marginal temps it might be hard for it to accumulate if it is snowing at a quarter inch an hour for 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 10 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Again, very important to note here that this literally does fall over almost two days. This is not news. It’s always been trying to get a nice front end, and then see how the coastal develops over the second 24-36 hour period. This version of the NAM didn’t produce the way some others have. The other thing we have been watching is the heaviest intial band slipping a bit south. This NAM shows that a bit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity87 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: See I think the problem is that with marginal temps it might be hard for it to accumulate if it is snowing at a quarter inch an hour for 36 hours. I always thought this too until I saw us get 10" in the middle of March the same way a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 We have been pretty cold here the last few days, too. Last night was 8 degrees so that ground should be ready for some snow to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity87 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Crazy how similar the HRRR and the 18z euro are. I thought I was looking at the same model for second. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Another look at the NAM. Yea its long duration and doesn't really snow hard but its still peak climo, low sun angle, and the ground is pretty frozen. It will accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 RGEM has four feet in Allentown. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Mailman said: RGEM has four feet in Allentown. 52 inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 That would be insane if that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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