Ahoff Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 First calls from NWS. SREF Plumes up to mean of 4". Click on the first image, it isn't appearing correctly, but clicking on it has the right image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Hopefully NAM holds the line. We need some good trends today with that primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Well, if we "lose" this storm, the GFS shows a massive Miller A under a banana high around the 10th-11th. Who wants to buy stock in that one now? Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, jwilson said: Well, if we "lose" this storm, the GFS shows a massive Miller A under a banana high around the 10th-11th. Who wants to buy stock in that one now? Haha. If its anything like Gamestop I'll buy into it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, jwilson said: Well, if we "lose" this storm, the GFS shows a massive Miller A under a banana high around the 10th-11th. Who wants to buy stock in that one now? Haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 So the NAM looks great but it has zero backing so I'm not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: So the NAM looks great but it has zero backing so I'm not buying it. Isn't the Euro in it's camp? Ron Smiley on KDKA is clearly backing the GFS he said snow will change to all rain Sunday with a high of 38. Only 1-3" for us. GFS seems to have no support, so I wonder why he's going with that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Still snowing there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 We are like 48 hours out now so really things should start to come to a consensus 12z / 00z today you'd think right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 So gfs just absolutely floods the area with warm air. We would get a very slushy like 2-5 but maybe its wrong on the thermals. I'm betting huge on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Latest NAM runs are flirting with the GFS idea of going north and pulling in warm air to the PIT metro. Part of the problem is any potential dry-slotting would allow for temp increases across various levels. The GFS is especially egregious with this pulling surface temps above freezing up to Erie, more or less, up to 850H. The NAM and RGEM are very close. The other problem I'm seeing is at 500H, most notably. There's a vort over Canada right now that gets pulled south under the block and gets stuck in the Atlantic. There's energy trailing that vort that, while somewhat suppressing the incoming storm, also draws away some energy in the atmosphere. Then it becomes a spacing game and there's not enough room for both. I believe that leads to shearing along the NE side of the precip shield, which could impact our initial rates with WAA as the low approaches. The Atlantic low(s) combined with the midwest low and the high above create a quasi "Omega" block. Normally we want that Atlantic low at about 50/50 lat/long. Instead, it's sitting almost due East of the Midwest low. That's probably still a workable look, in theory (love a met to confirm), but I don't believe that's a typical "big dog" signal. Of course, the trough never really goes negative. If the trough stays positive the entire duration, we'll likely lose a lot of our potential coastal snows because there's no chance of capture and retrograde. Forgot to add: that interference from the easterly vort will also slow down the primary as it moves into Ohio and, I believe, force it to transfer south quicker (or at least in a less than ideal position for PIT). We need that low to get close to get better rates while still hanging south and wait to transfer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 40 minutes ago, jwilson said: Latest NAM runs are flirting with the GFS idea of going north and pulling in warm air to the PIT metro. Part of the problem is any potential dry-slotting would allow for temp increases across various levels. The GFS is especially egregious with this pulling surface temps above freezing up to Erie, more or less, up to 850H. The NAM and RGEM are very close. The other problem I'm seeing is at 500H, most notably. There's a vort over Canada right now that gets pulled south under the block and gets stuck in the Atlantic. There's energy trailing that vort that, while somewhat suppressing the incoming storm, also draws away some energy in the atmosphere. Then it becomes a spacing game and there's not enough room for both. I believe that leads to shearing along the NE side of the precip shield, which could impact our initial rates with WAA as the low approaches. The Atlantic low(s) combined with the midwest low and the high above create a quasi "Omega" block. Normally we want that Atlantic low at about 50/50 lat/long. Instead, it's sitting almost due East of the Midwest low. That's probably still a workable look, in theory (love a met to confirm), but I don't believe that's a typical "big dog" signal. Of course, the trough never really goes negative. If the trough stays positive the entire duration, we'll likely lose a lot of our potential coastal snows because there's no chance of capture and retrograde. Forgot to add: that interference from the easterly vort will also slow down the primary as it moves into Ohio and, I believe, force it to transfer south quicker (or at least in a less than ideal position for PIT). We need that low to get close to get better rates while still hanging south and wait to transfer. All good points. I think we should also consider our climotolgy, the warm tongue is real and is usually stronger than modeled so maybe the GFS isn't that off its rocker. Those maps with the big totals were fun to look at and illustrated what "could" happen if like 20 variables all flipped in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Bad news, NWS dropped the expected total to 3" and top total to 4". Hopefuly some last minute corrections occur in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Euro looking close to that same 8-9” type output in the city or just south - but instead of the snow hole over Morgantown, it has a 12” bullseye. And the totals trail off from the city north. This really shows some of the complexity with track, temps, and the dry slot (which could hurt those borderline temps, in addition to less precip. So double whammy where that happens). I think Euro overall is a slightly better look for us since the dry slot seems to be in central WV. So more wiggle room as long as that shear to the NE doesn’t get us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Euro looking close to that same 8-9” type output in the city or just south - but instead of the snow hole over Morgantown, it has a 12” bullseye. And the totals trail off from the city north. This really shows some of the complexity with track, temps, and the dry slot (which could hurt those borderline temps, in addition to less precip. So double whammy where that happens). Seems like the bleeding stopped on the Euro finally. This is such a complicated set up that I wouldn't be confident if I was forecasting. Id be happy with a 5-8 storm. At this point if it's not gonna be our next big daddy ill take every inch we can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Not bad not bad. Still could improve too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 41 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Not bad not bad. Still could improve too. I'll take that. Looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I like the Euro. On its own, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 SREF Plumes rising to a mean of 6.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutnOakmont Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 It's a little unnerving to see such variation between the models. I know they're never in complete agreement, but it seems like with this storm in particular all of them take a different stab at the totals and all get very different results. Typically, I yield to the Euro no matter what. I wonder if it will come out on top this time around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 NAM did well for me after the transition back to snow. 12z was just a disaster altogether down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Id take 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Wheres the excitement!!! It could happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Wheres the excitement!!! It could happen. Looks like the bleeding stopped for now at least. Id take that and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 42 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Wheres the excitement!!! It could happen. 18z NAM and 18z Euro look pretty close, 18z Euro actually better than 12z for Allegheny County. Will be interesting if this look holds, NWS might be upping totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Nam and Euro look like a good 6-10". Let's hope it settles here. Get through one more day of runs and it's game time. SREFs up to 8"! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 If you were hoping for some coastal love, the NAM won’t disappoint. Fires like 20” back to Indiana county - Everywhere else around AGC foot-ish. Still trying to mix south a bit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: If you were hoping for some coastal love, the NAM won’t disappoint. Fires like 20” back to Indiana county - Everywhere else around AGC foot-ish. Still trying to mix south a bit Can it be game time already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I'd have a skating rink outside if that NAM run plays out as depicted. I can't skate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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