RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 It was a good run, We have CMC, UKMET and EURO (and it seems like GFS is trending towards these guys) all showing at least 6-10 inches, hopefully no big changes in that track and we can start narrowing in on a tighter snowfall range in the next 24 hours or so. The coastal development not like last nights Euro, but that probably won't be nailed down just yet given all the complexities associated with it and its still a little past the 100 hour mark whereas the track of the primary is under 80 hours now. If this were deal or no deal I'd probably take it and run at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Still nice, around a foot, we definitely can't complain. Another question, those in the Central forum are talking about the coastal being farther east, is that due to the primary tracking and dying further east (doing better for us), or nothing to do with it at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 12 minutes ago, Mailman said: I need to use the bathroom. Wow is that all from the primary??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Euro is colder with a more robust strip of 12+ streaking through central Ohio. That was less pronounced at 0z, and basically makes it all the way to Pgh now. i think it’s the result of a slightly further south track of the primary. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Burghblizz said: Euro is colder with a more robust strip of 12+ streaking through central Ohio. That was less pronounced at 0z, and basically makes it all the way to Pgh now. i think it’s the result of a slightly further south track of the primary. Let's get the primary to trend stronger and further south somehow and thats how we win. I'm just glad to be tracking again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The Euro cuts off as well. This keeps some of that energy associated with the primary over us a little long before fizzling out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Let's get the primary to trend stronger and further south somehow and thats how we win. I'm just glad to be tracking again. The key for that could be that 1034 high. Was slightly south of 0Z as the run progressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The Euro mean took a nice jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Ahoff said: The Euro meantook a nice jump. Nothing wrong with this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Snow depth by the Euro. Ensemble mean is up to 4+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 GEFS plumes. A lot to like here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I still don't love the setup (give me a WAA overrunning event any day, something with simpler dynamics), but I'll be happy to be wrong about the max potential. Not buying in yet. The GFS doesn't concern me too much because it was awful with the 12/16 storm. It had us getting only a couple inches even in the last few runs up to game time. That said, it's still a possible solution, it just doesn't have much support. This does look like it could come down to the mesoscales again. I enjoy tracking, but I don't love sweating out the details into the final 24 hours. I should add this event doesn't really mirror that one in December. We're talking a long duration snowfall here, and because of the speed, we're less reliant on thermodynamics and convection to get a decent snowfall. This is more of a synoptic (large-scale) event. Instead of worrying about where banding sets up, we'll have to see how the timing falls, where the low settles, if it can retrograde west during a capture, etc. Plenty of moving pieces. As an additional note, the Canadian (at least) also shows a Christmas-eve redux event with a massive cold front and crashing temps. That's next weekend (Fri/Sat). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I think as long as the primary low and 850mb low don't go too far north and stays just below Pittsburgh's latitude while its transferring to the coastal.. this is actually a pretty good setup for a decent snow event for Pittsburgh and surrounding. The west-east trajectory of the primary and transfer plus the overall blocking pattern maintain the nose of that anomalous easterly 850mb fetch pretty far inland... which is a pretty good sign for maintaining a nice precip shield between the two lows as they transfer. -4 standard deviations is quite significant. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Highest chances from NOAA yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 19 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I think as long as the primary low and 850mb low don't go too far north and stays just below Pittsburgh's latitude while its transferring to the coastal.. this is actually a pretty good setup for a decent snow event for Pittsburgh and surrounding. The west-east trajectory of the primary and transfer plus the overall blocking pattern maintain the nose of that anomalous easterly 850mb fetch pretty far inland... which is a pretty good sign for maintaining a nice precip shield between the two lows as they transfer. -4 standard deviations is quite significant. This is what I worry about here in the western laurels in Farmington PA....looks like I’m going to be dryotted awhile during the transfer and lose 4-6” per today’s runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Not relevant to the storm discussion, but those are some cold temps advertised in the long-term. Highs in the single digits on February 8th, lows perhaps below 0. (Likely overdone, but we haven't seen that kind of cold in a while) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 My local forecast looks to be going strictly by the GFS. Detailed Forecast This Afternoon A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 26. Northwest wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Tonight A chance of snow showers, mainly between 1am and 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Northwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday A slight chance of snow showers before 10am. Partly sunny, with a high near 26. Northwest wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 17. Northwest wind 3 to 7 mph. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 32. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph in the afternoon. Saturday Night Snow showers likely, mainly after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday Snow before 10am, then snow and freezing rain between 10am and 2pm, then rain and snow after 2pm. High near 35. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Sunday Night Rain and snow before 3am, then snow and freezing rain likely. Low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Monday Snow and freezing rain likely before 2pm, then rain and snow likely between 2pm and 3pm, then a chance of snow after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday Night A chance of snow showers before 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 NAM coming in south of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, Mailman said: NAM coming in south of 12z. Looks decent for this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, Mailman said: NAM coming in south of 12z. We’ve heard for years not to study the NAM at 84...but I’m gonna. Def south, but almost looks like it wants to force that intial heavier snow south, and/or have it fizzle sooner. Im OK with that look at this point - just seems like mixing is the bigger concern than full suppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: We’ve heard for years not to study the NAM at 84...but I’m gonna. Def south, but almost looks like it wants to force that intial heavier snow south, and/or have it fizzle sooner. Im OK with that look at this point - just seems like mixing is the bigger concern than full suppression This far out I'd rather not be in the absolute bullseye on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Yeah, NAM was that exciting so far, still early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: We’ve heard for years not to study the NAM at 84...but I’m gonna. Def south, but almost looks like it wants to force that intial heavier snow south, and/or have it fizzle sooner. Im OK with that look at this point - just seems like mixing is the bigger concern than full suppression Sometimes NAM at range can give hints to what other guidance will do, and a little more push from the confluence isn't out of the realm yet so missing to the South still on the table. It's a narrow window to maximize snow with the primary tracking like that and not ending up with slop or a whiff or dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFS going the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Mailman said: GFS going the wrong way. Pretty bad run all around. Still time to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Mailman said: GFS going the wrong way. It doesn't look great, but it's still got the primary farther north than anything else so we rain / mix. In my opinion our biggest failure option is an early transfer, want that thing to slide just to the South of us then spin as it transfers. Quicker transfer means the better totals cut off in central Ohio then pick up again in central PA as we basically get jumped over in the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 TWC still has temperatures in the low 30s for highs during the storm, hopefully that stays. No mixing or rain please. Accuweather also have highs in the lower 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Interstingly the euro primary was too far south this run and the very SW corner of the state gets pounded with the heavy swath of snow. Will be curious to see what the 00z does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 18z Euro South, misses us with the good front end stuff. Overall not a reassuring 18z run across the models. Hopefully just an off run hiccup and not the begining of the unraveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Now I'm scared, lol. Aren't the off hours (6z and 18z), usually a bit weird vs. the 0z and 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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