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Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️


north pgh
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 A lot could definitely go wrong. Not sure we have an analog with a good storm that cuts that far west, and then hits a brick wall and slides east in time to 1) give us heavy precip and 2) not pull warm air in.

That makes it a little more thread of the needle. I will say the nightmare snow hole scenario looks less likely

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1 hour ago, dj3 said:

Euro hits us with the initial WAA and pulls the coastal low inland after transferring. Pretty much everything we needed to happen, now the question is how realistic would that be? Great overnight trends either way though.

Yeah that was perfect on 00z Euro for the WAA, then the capture and and riding inland helped get some of the coastal snow back our way. The 00z op did seem to be an outlier though among it's ensembles , and 6z isn't nearly as good. 6z GFS though finally stopped driving the primary to Cleveland. 12z runs today should be interesting to see if we start seeing more evidence last nights Euro gains support.

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Just now, RitualOfTheTrout said:

12z GFS doesn't look like it's going to make any friends in our section of the world, drives the primary into SWPA, so a lot of the front thump is sleet / zr / rain then the coastal doesn't throw much back to us.

Good news it will change. For better or worse. 

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9 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

12z GFS doesn't look like it's going to make any friends in our section of the world, drives the primary into SWPA, so a lot of the front thump is sleet / zr / rain then the coastal doesn't throw much back to us.

As depicted it sucks but I think it is taking a step towards the euro has far as the coastal being tucked in. We need it to be wrong on the warmth it brings with the primary though for sure. It is the most bullish on precip for sure. 

264FF8C5-49F3-4618-927F-1C5702302350.png.a5d61d21c415f18b5b527a3e788fa3e2.png

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34 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

12z GFS doesn't look like it's going to make any friends in our section of the world, drives the primary into SWPA, so a lot of the front thump is sleet / zr / rain then the coastal doesn't throw much back to us.

Luckily the Euro is more on our side at this time.

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37 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Canadian still seems to be a monster for us. 

UKMET looks good with it's track of the primary, looks like it keeps it south of us similar to Canadian, most of the mix stays south of M/D line. That's my main focus, the hail marry miracle inland coastal we saw on 00z Euro probably is not going to happen based on other 12z models so far today, but if the Euro throws that out there again maybe we start seeing if there are hints of that in future runs of the other models.

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6 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

UKMET looks good with it's track of the primary, looks like it keeps it south of us similar to Canadian, most of the mix stays south of M/D line. That's my main focus, the hail marry miracle inland coastal we saw on 00z Euro probably is not going to happen based on other 12z models so far today, but if the Euro throws that out there again maybe we start seeing if there are hints of that in future runs of the other models.

In the Central forum they were worried the UK was so south, is that just because of the coastal being to far south?  It wouldn't effect us as much, because we get most of ours from the primary?

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26 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

In the Central forum they were worried the UK was so south, is that just because of the coastal being to far south?  It wouldn't effect us as much, because we get most of ours from the primary?

Yes. Our precip is almost entirely coming from the primary. The snow that hangs around is not from the coastal, but it is from a secondary trough of LP that is coming down after the primary comes through. 

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