dj3 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Quite the messy looking set up on the GFS. I am guessing we want the primary low to be limited in how far north it travels before transferring, while also rooting for the secondary development to be tucked. Probably a good reason miller B's don't often produce big totals here haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Primary weakens enough that very little precip makes it to us. Coastal gets cranking early this run but doesn't throw much snow back past south central PA. Looks like a huge hit for DC though on this run. ETA: Actually looks like it crawls slowly up and off the coast so it appears DC-BOS get hit pretty good. Snow map won't be pretty on this for western PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 14 minutes ago, dj3 said: Primary weakens enough that very little precip makes it to us. Coastal gets cranking early this run but doesn't throw much snow back past south central PA. Looks like a huge hit for DC though on this run. ETA: Actually looks like it crawls slowly up and off the coast so it appears DC-BOS get hit pretty good. Snow map won't be pretty on this for western PA Primary is way to far West for us, we want the primary to come up in WV, then sit and spun as it transfers to the coast. As is we are stuck between the two and don't get much. GFS takes the low to far north, if we end up with a compromise between Euro and GFS in terms of latitude/longitude the primary makes it maybe we are in business for several inches. As it stands now on the Euro we are the big losers on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 7 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Primary is way to far West for us, we want the primary to come up in WV, then sit and spun as it transfers to the coast. As is we are stuck between the two and don't get much. GFS takes the low to far north, if we end up with a compromise between Euro and GFS in terms of latitude/longitude the primary makes it maybe we are in business for several inches. As it stands now on the Euro we are the big losers on this one. I mean this is so sad you have to laugh. Plenty of time though and just having the storm is important. I mean seeing over 6 inches to the west, south and east should still be a decent sign at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ahoff said: I mean this is so sad you have to laugh. Plenty of time though and just having the storm is important. I mean seeing over 6 inches to the west, south and east should still be a decent sign at this stage. It's still a good 5-6 days out so it's unlikely this exact progression plays out this way. One way to look at it is we really don't have anything to lose. All else being equal on the Euro get that primary to slide east 100 miles before the transfer and we probably manage a decent 3-6 inch event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, RitualOfTheTrout said: It's still a good 5-6 days out so it's unlikely this exact progression plays out this way. One way to look at it is we really don't have anything to lose. All else being equal on the Euro get that primary to slide east 100 miles before the transfer and we probably manage a decent 3-6 inch event. Always the danger in these setups is the dry slot or the too far north movement that brings rain into the equation. Even the folks in D.C. should remain skeptical for now. The last couple systems have trended south quickly and it is possible this one keeps moving south, as well, and isn't locked into its location yet. Either way, I don't anticipate this being a PA special. Maybe points SE and Philly get a moderate snowfall as the low gains latitude. I'll watch for changes, but this setup doesn't excite me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, jwilson said: Always the danger in these setups is the dry slot or the too far north movement that brings rain into the equation. Even the folks in D.C. should remain skeptical for now. The last couple systems have trended south quickly and it is possible this one keeps moving south, as well, and isn't locked into its location yet. Either way, I don't anticipate this being a PA special. Maybe points SE and Philly get a moderate snowfall as the low gains latitude. I'll watch for changes, but this setup doesn't excite me. I'm with you as it's currently modeled. Baring some other piece of energy or something showing up and altering the general look I agree with your previous post that the upside for us is 4-8 type event which I would take any day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 The EPS shows a decent number of moderate hits but the big potential does seem to be east of us by a good amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 If you are expecting to jackpot you are gonna be disappointed. At this point I think a low end warning event would be the ceiling and even that is low probability. There's a reason why Miller Bs suck for us. Who knows though maybe the primary goes further east and changes the whole outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 The point and click on The Weather has about 3-7" Sun-Mon as of now. Will be interesting to see how that changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 GFS and CMC both give us a decent thump from the primary. CMC is a bit further south than GFS with it so I think that is a better outcome. I wouldn't mind seeing even a tick SE on the CMC in terms of that primary. If that's going to be the way this plays out it would be nice to see the Euro show us getting something, it seems to keep the primary much further west so we don't get as much of the front end stuff. As others have mentioned the big jackpot totals from the coastal redevelopment and possible subsequent stall as it phases are off the table. For us to get snow from a coastal it needs to be a mature circulation with a solid CCB and ideally run inland through Eastern PA. That's not to say we won't get some light snow etc but our main focus should be milking as much out of that primary from having it take a good track and die off in the right place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 GFS and GGEM both looking in the 4-8 inch range which you guys mentioned yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: GFS and CMC both give us a decent thump from the primary. CMC is a bit further south than GFS with it so I think that is a better outcome. I wouldn't mind seeing even a tick SE on the CMC in terms of that primary. If that's going to be the way this plays out it would be nice to see the Euro show us getting something, it seems to keep the primary much further west so we don't get as much of the front end stuff. As others have mentioned the big jackpot totals from the coastal redevelopment and possible subsequent stall as it phases are off the table. For us to get snow from a coastal it needs to be a mature circulation with a solid CCB and ideally run inland through Eastern PA. That's not to say we won't get some light snow etc but our main focus should be milking as much out of that primary from having it take a good track and die off in the right place. The 12Z Canadian is about the best we could possibly hope for in an outcome. The low apparently stays far enough south of us that we don't cross over to rain, while the primary also drives close enough to get us into the decent front-end snow rates. Then it hangs on for a while and slowly transitions to a coastal. There will be dryslotting, but the CMC depiction keeps us in light snows while the coastal develops and generates more frontogenesis / forcing which brings some better rates into Western PA. The low position on the GFS is only 100 miles different (almost due East) and isn't ambiguous: we change to rain. I think if the location on the CMC was accurate, we would see a changeover in the usual areas despite it acting to the contrary. The CMC is optimistic. Typically we want the low in Kentucky or even Tennessee to avoid the warm tongue. There's delicate timing between the primary approaching and then ultimately dying before we get into rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 May have to go to Frederick. lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Yep looks about right. I think our luck is about to end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 A little better but still would hurt. Id be happy with a nice 5-8 storm again. We know the odds are severely against us for anything like 2010. https://i.imgur.com/gdnC5dT.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Another map. Seems like we are rooting for the primary to be further south and to hold on longer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Yeah, looks like a step forward, but these ugly holes need to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Much better than the 12z run yesterday at least our donut hole filled in with some dark blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 The Euro doesn't give us any front end love from the dying primary like the GFS and GGEM both do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, dj3 said: The Euro doesn't give us any front end love from the dying primary like the GFS and GGEM both do. yeah which could change. I think its safe to say that our ceiling for this storm would be 6-10. Let's just keep padding the total regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 11 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: yeah which could change. I think its safe to say that our ceiling for this storm would be 6-10. Let's just keep padding the total regardless. I agree, nice to see everything coming on board for at least a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 31 minutes ago, dj3 said: The Euro doesn't give us any front end love from the dying primary like the GFS and GGEM both do. Euro has been fairly unrelenting on that idea, and it's been pretty steady with the snow hole idea but it has improved somewhat. If that was some sort of snow max bullseye no way it would stay from run to run. Until I see it get on board I'll be skeptical of anything over a couple inches, but the GFS and GGEM show how we could get a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 18z GFS not great, but still looks similar to 12z, at least to my untrained eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 hours ago, Mailman said: May have to go to Frederick. lol. I seriously considered going to the Poconos (free condo) or Breezewood (close drive) for the 12.16 storm. I mean real close to going. I think I wound up with more snow staying put. So hopefully this comes back to us as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 One thing that I have noticed is in past years, we were always in good shape early in the models and then they trended badly for us as the event nears. This year they have been trending in the right direction. Let’s hope this weekend storm keeps trending our way. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 This is pretty nice looking. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFS still has it snowing for 48 hours as the low waltzes its way up the northeast coast. I'll take it! Canadian is all blue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 hours ago, Ahoff said: This is pretty nice looking. I dont trust the NAM it lures you just like a siren. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Euro has improved. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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