OutnOakmont Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Gross. The early part of next week is really starting to look like a slopfest. It's disappointing to see the tongue emerge! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 6 hours ago, OutnOakmont said: Gross. The early part of next week is really starting to look like a slopfest. It's disappointing to see the tongue emerge! Looks like it should be pretty quick and painless, as we get flooded with warm air at the 850 level, and then at the surface not too long after. The Euro is pretty much locked in, with this solution. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 GFS coming around for storm #2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Gross. The early part of next week is really starting to look like a slopfest. It's disappointing to see the tongue emerge! We knew we couldn’t avoid the tongue all winter. I’m amazed we held off this long . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Some brief but moderate snow showers moving through right now. Gee, you think we might be getting some moisture influence all the way from lake Superior? Thought this satellite shot was kinda cool, you can clearly see the stream of clouds right off the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I will gladly trade the Monday storm for a better trend on Thursday’s storm. Thing looks like a beast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 7 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said: Looks like it should be pretty quick and painless, as we get flooded with warm air at the 850 level, and then at the surface not too long after. The Euro is pretty much locked in, with this solution. While I agree it'll probably end a quick death based on the past history under modeling speed and degree with which the warmth overwhelmes our area it does look like GFS and CMC keep pushing the system further West which would still give us a slug of WAA precip but less warming. I guess I'm just saying don't sleep on it, outcome may be more wintry in the sleet and freezing rain department than it looks now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 32 minutes ago, dj3 said: I will gladly trade the Monday storm for a better trend on Thursday’s storm. Thing looks like a beast Wow no kidding, just saw GFS, that would be a blizzard for areas SE into Maryland / Virginia. There's a limit to how far north it can go with the block in place but we could get a solid event out of it as it stands now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Looks like the big storm is gonna miss us to the south. Still a long way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 46 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Looks like the big storm is gonna miss us to the south. Still a long way out. This setup bares some similarities to Feb 2010 with the features, big block with a wall of confluence that will shunt the storm East once it moves so far North. One difference now is lack of the big STJ firehose of moisture. I think there is room for this to come north if it ends up being more amped and the confluence is weaker. Overall though I agree our biggest issue is suppression and this setup doesn't have the same upside potential as that storm in terms of snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 10 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: This setup bares some similarities to Feb 2010 with the features, big block with a wall of confluence that will shunt the storm East once it moves so far North. One difference now is lack of the big STJ firehose of moisture. I think there is room for this to come north if it ends up being more amped and the confluence is weaker. Overall though I agree our biggest issue is suppression and this setup doesn't have the same upside potential as that storm in terms of snow totals. Well guess I should have held off posting this because everything has gone the wrong way since... Literally every feature, the TPV is pushing south faster, the Monday storm is not moving out as quickly and the SW for the Thursday storm is trending faster. It would be asking for a lot of stuff to be modeled wrong at this point for us to have a chance at even a few inches, but we are still 5 days out so who knows. Worst part is next storm after will probably cut and give us rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Well, the December honeymoon sure ended quickly. We have a theoretically decent pattern, but the general atmospheric conditions are not poised for snow storms along the east coast. Comes down to a couple different factors, but it seems like the snowy conditions were relegated to Europe and Asia where the PV has hung out most of the winter. Of course, Ninas are typically more dry for us, anyway. I guess we'll see if February changes anything or if snow shows up as we transition to spring and more moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 O Canada 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 5 hours ago, jwilson said: Well, the December honeymoon sure ended quickly. We have a theoretically decent pattern, but the general atmospheric conditions are not poised for snow storms along the east coast. Comes down to a couple different factors, but it seems like the snowy conditions were relegated to Europe and Asia where the PV has hung out most of the winter. Of course, Ninas are typically more dry for us, anyway. I guess we'll see if February changes anything or if snow shows up as we transition to spring and more moisture. It has been an odd month in some ways, not a torch or shutout pattern but just couldn't seem to get anything to come together yet we have managed to nickel and dime our way to over half our average snowfall for January. Just a few days ago I thought this week would be pretty busy tracking today and Thursday but those evaporated pretty quickly. Looks like the next opportunity for something more organized comes Sunday - Monday next week. The CMC has a fun but low probability miller B type setup with almost 48 hours of snow falling (as illustrated in the map Rd9108 posted) but at this point all the models have a storm in the vicinity around that time so maybe we get the chance to roll the dice again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Euro also showing that same low probability Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 29 minutes ago, Mailman said: Euro also showing that same low probability Miller B. Not so low probability now...? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 35 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Not so low probability now...? With Miller Bs and our area I'd still say low probability. We need literally the perfect scenario to happen. Usually the primary is too strong and floods us with warm air before transferring too far east. Bares watching atleast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 It seems it was much colder today than it was supposed to be at this time, or maybe I stopped caring after figuring the storm wasn't ours. Any chance though that we get a little front end snow before the change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 hour ago, Ahoff said: It seems it was much colder today than it was supposed to be at this time, or maybe I stopped caring after figuring the storm wasn't ours. Any chance though that we get a little front end snow before the change? Seems like we kinda got stuck between two systems. We missed the precip shield to our south today, and tonight the best forcing might shift north of us too quickly, before temps rise . Maybe something like last night, might be what we end up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 This is what I expect when I see Miller B mentioned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 18 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: This is what I expect when I see Miller B mentioned. Kick in the nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 5 hours ago, Ahoff said: Not so low probability now...? When I said low probability I was referring to how it managed to snow for 48 hours straight not necessarily any one outcome or that a storm of some sort was unlikely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 hours ago, Ahoff said: It seems it was much colder today than it was supposed to be at this time, or maybe I stopped caring after figuring the storm wasn't ours. Any chance though that we get a little front end snow before the change? I haven't paid much attention to this event either, but earlier in the day I did check the hrrr and it showed a brief burst of snow this evening and low and behold I just looked outside and it's snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 It's sleet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 All sleet here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Sleet here. Glad I got new tires. Don't need a repeat of Christmas night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Good trend on GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 9 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Good trend on GEFS Seems to be picking up on a trend with the models of a Miller B next Sunday-Tuesday. Not a typically great setup for our area. Our totals will depend on the timing issue and how vigorous the primary low is before transfer. The storm back in December was more of a hybrid system while this one looks like a pure B event, which are great for coastal regions but tricky elsewhere. I would cap expectations (for now) at 4-8" tops. Not a bad event, but not particularly notable, either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 57 minutes ago, jwilson said: Seems to be picking up on a trend with the models of a Miller B next Sunday-Tuesday. Not a typically great setup for our area. Our totals will depend on the timing issue and how vigorous the primary low is before transfer. The storm back in December was more of a hybrid system while this one looks like a pure B event, which are great for coastal regions but tricky elsewhere. I would cap expectations (for now) at 4-8" tops. Not a bad event, but not particularly notable, either. That's a high top! I'd take it in a heartbeat. Hell, I'll take 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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