Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️

[CoraopolisWx]

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Coming down hard again.

still no power, but looks like it’s only 24 customers, so guess Duquesne Light doesn’t care too much.  Supposed to be 4 before we get it back.

I know how that feels. 
The squall line we had a couple months ago knocked out power for one small area up here from 5pm-4am. 
Everywhere else had power all evening. 

[north pgh]

We just had a heavy squall cover everything with about 1/2 inch in about 20 minutes. Completely stopped now. Beautiful bands setting up.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Another moderate to heavy burst moving in now. Being close to sunset should yield some better staying power now. Roads are even starting to cave and winds picking up a bit too.

[Ahoff]

3 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said:

I know how that feels. 
The squall line we had a couple months ago knocked out power for one small area up here from 5pm-4am. 
Everywhere else had power all evening. 

Came back around 3:20, so we’re warming up again.  Thank god.

[north pgh]

I nice squall line about to move in.

[Ahoff]

Officially 3.2" yesterday.  Nice pick up.

[north pgh]

Beautiful snow falling now. No wind and flakes quarters and silver dollars 

I took the dog for a walk in it. Can’t beat it. This weekend reminded me of snowfalls growing up where not a big storm but it really hasn’t stopped snowing and we had that really heavy burst yesterday.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Light snow has been coming down for a couple hours, but to warm, nothing accumulating yet. Feels crazy to say that in mid January at night. Living in low elevation spot is brutal with marginal temperatures.

Looks like some slightly better returns on radar, might wake up to whitened landscape again.

[dj3]

9 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Light snow has been coming down for a couple hours, but to warm, nothing accumulating yet. Feels crazy to say that in mid January at night. Living in low elevation spot is brutal with marginal temperatures.

Looks like some slightly better returns on radar, might wake up to whitened landscape again.

During slower tracking periods I tend to read in the New England and Mid Atlantic forums for long range stuff. Figured I'd bring up one of the themes I keep seeing repeated by some of the knowledgeable guys in the MA forum to see if anyone has thoughts in here. It does feel slightly ironic bringing this up after one of our snowiest Decembers on record and a nice double digit snowfall we have all been craving.

The blocking regime that has evolved over January really has not resulted in much in the way of cold or snow which many have attributed to the putrid airmass that the block is currently holding in place. Basically a block does little good if there isn't already an established cold source nearby. Maybe I am not remembering correctly or mistaken because of lack of understanding but in the past I remember thicknesses that are well below 540 resulting in a colder reflection at the surface than what we are seeing this winter. Taking this past weekend as an example, I am surprised what evolved at the surface (mid 30's with snow in the air most of the time). I guess I'm curious if our cold fronts are going to continue to be moderated in the short term due to warmth in our cold source regions, or if this is something that is going to be a persistent issue moving forward? 

Definitely not complaining with the winter we have had so far, just bored with a slow couple of tracking weeks and trying to better understand why the good pattern looks haven't lived up to the potential hype. 

[Rd9108]

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 hour ago, dj3 said:

During slower tracking periods I tend to read in the New England and Mid Atlantic forums for long range stuff. Figured I'd bring up one of the themes I keep seeing repeated by some of the knowledgeable guys in the MA forum to see if anyone has thoughts in here. It does feel slightly ironic bringing this up after one of our snowiest Decembers on record and a nice double digit snowfall we have all been craving.

The blocking regime that has evolved over January really has not resulted in much in the way of cold or snow which many have attributed to the putrid airmass that the block is currently holding in place. Basically a block does little good if there isn't already an established cold source nearby. Maybe I am not remembering correctly or mistaken because of lack of understanding but in the past I remember thicknesses that are well below 540 resulting in a colder reflection at the surface than what we are seeing this winter. Taking this past weekend as an example, I am surprised what evolved at the surface (mid 30's with snow in the air most of the time). I guess I'm curious if our cold fronts are going to continue to be moderated in the short term due to warmth in our cold source regions, or if this is something that is going to be a persistent issue moving forward? 

Definitely not complaining with the winter we have had so far, just bored with a slow couple of tracking weeks and trying to better understand why the good pattern looks haven't lived up to the potential hype. 

I don't think anyone can argue the climate is warming, the oceans are warmer sea ice is less etc. It seems niave to think man's industry inducing tons of carbon into the atmosphere over decades has zero effect. Whether this is in conjunction with longer term cycles of warmer / cooler climate and we see a slight cooling as the pendulum swings the other way, who knows. The other question is would the climate have stayed stable forever without any interference, seems unlikely. Have we hit a point we're warmth is now like a fission reaction gone critical in that there's no stopping it as the cryosphere melts and oceans warm releasing tons of once stable carbon into the atmosphere? I have no idea.

I do think there is a goldilocks period so to speak in that more moisture in the atmosphere and stronger storms with still cold enough air could lead to bigger storms with more snow. Also as oceans warm the baroclonic zone shifts inland along the coast making more favorable tracks for us likely while still cold enough so again bigger storms. All this while our more predictable nickel and dime snows become less frequent and we are left to boom or bust based on the previous 2. Over time the spacing between good storms / winters gets longer and longer. I don't know how fast this might happen from where we are now, maybe we are already at the tail end of goldilocks period?

I know this winter the raging PAC jet (presumably fueled by warmer water) is torching Canada so air masses are maritime in origin or already moderated before they arrive. I'm not sure how this portends to future winters here but worth monitoring. 

If we have indeed hit the runaway warming I'd expect drastic changes to become evident over relatively short climate timescales and at that point the concern over snow is really the least of our problems.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

That would be a very destructive ice storm. I honestly don't remember the last big ice, maybe VD 2007? I recall a good bit of ice overnight before switching back to snow the next day. Before that probably early 90s.

Big ice is tough to maintain in our area but if we have a big high locked in with a block funneling cool dry air in to offset latent heat release and temps stay in the 20s it could happen.

Moderate rain at 31.5 in the middle of the day won't really be that bad despite models showing it all as zr.

[Ahoff]

Luckily that ice model is from the GFS.  At least they aren't as spot on, but something to watch for sure.

 

[KPITSnow]

3 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I don't think anyone can argue the climate is warming, the oceans are warmer sea ice is less etc. It seems niave to think man's industry inducing tons of carbon into the atmosphere over decades has zero effect. Whether this is in conjunction with longer term cycles of warmer / cooler climate and we see a slight cooling as the pendulum swings the other way, who knows. The other question is would the climate have stayed stable forever without any interference, seems unlikely. Have we hit a point we're warmth is now like a fission reaction gone critical in that there's no stopping it as the cryosphere melts and oceans warm releasing tons of once stable carbon into the atmosphere? I have no idea.

I do think there is a goldilocks period so to speak in that more moisture in the atmosphere and stronger storms with still cold enough air could lead to bigger storms with more snow. Also as oceans warm the baroclonic zone shifts inland along the coast making more favorable tracks for us likely while still cold enough so again bigger storms. All this while our more predictable nickel and dime snows become less frequent and we are left to boom or bust based on the previous 2. Over time the spacing between good storms / winters gets longer and longer. I don't know how fast this might happen from where we are now, maybe we are already at the tail end of goldilocks period?

I know this winter the raging PAC jet (presumably fueled by warmer water) is torching Canada so air masses are maritime in origin or already moderated before they arrive. I'm not sure how this portends to future winters here but worth monitoring. 

If we have indeed hit the runaway warming I'd expect drastic changes to become evident over relatively short climate timescales and at that point the concern over snow is really the least of our problems.

Spot on.

I think we can absolutely notice the lack of LE events and clippers, which used to be much more common. 

[CoraopolisWx]

I know it’s weenie hyperbole, but it just seems like one of those winters where it wants to snow. 
IMHO, once we broke out of that wet subtropical pattern we had been in for a few years, the odds at a normal winter were better. Outside of a full continental torch, I like the overall direction this winter is going in. 

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, CoraopolisWx said:

I know it’s weenie hyperbole, but it just seems like one of those winters where it wants to snow. 
IMHO, once we broke out of that wet subtropical pattern we had been in for a few years, the odds at a normal winter were better. Outside of a full continental torch, I like the overall direction this winter is going in. 

I agree.  We seem to be on the winning end of many systems this winter.  Sometimes things just click.  Hopefully that continues.

 

Things haven’t been that bad at all this winter.  We are double our average so far and only 10” from seasonal average.

[SteelCity87]

1 hour ago, CoraopolisWx said:

I know it’s weenie hyperbole, but it just seems like one of those winters where it wants to snow. 
IMHO, once we broke out of that wet subtropical pattern we had been in for a few years, the odds at a normal winter were better. Outside of a full continental torch, I like the overall direction this winter is going in. 

Funny you mention that, was thinking the same thing to myself last night. Seems like every time there's a chance for snow it's doing so to it's full potential. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

9 minutes ago, SteelCity87 said:

Funny you mention that, was thinking the same thing to myself last night. Seems like every time there's a chance for snow it's doing so to it's full potential. 

I agree all events have met or exceeded expectations and to top it off we had a storm Christmas Eve and a white Christmas to boot.

As I type light snow continues to fall outside.  We will probably add a total of 5-6 more inches over this 7 day period starting Saturday that clocked in at 3.2 inches.

[Ahoff]

Better update from the last time I saw this map.  Still in the 10-12" range, but we are now straddling 12-15", so I guess 10-15" area wide.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Better update from the last time I saw this map.  Still in the 10-12" range, but we are now straddling 12-15", so I guess 10-15" area wide.

Good to see PA with several chances at some bigger events next week. That map comprises probably 3-4 discrete events over the 360 hour timeframe. 
 

To bad it’s not from one storm that’s only 24 hours out. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Don’t want to overlook tonight, looks like 1-2 inches. Let’s see if this can keep with the seasonal trend and max out. 

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

Just now, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Don’t want to overlook tonight, looks like 1-2 inches. Let’s see if this can keep with the seasonal trend and max out. 

Yea I’m surprised to see we’re in a WWA for 2-4....I just don’t see it

[Ahoff]

Euro Control looks good!

[dj3]

Next Monday into Tuesday starting to become interesting. Wouldn't mind taking my chances with a strong southern shortwave running into that block even if it does mean dealing with some mixing. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

12 hours ago, dj3 said:

Next Monday into Tuesday starting to become interesting. Wouldn't mind taking my chances with a strong southern shortwave running into that block even if it does mean dealing with some mixing. 

The more intriguing looks have devolved with the primary making it further North before sliding East. Lots of warm tongue looks on last two run looking at EPS individual panels.

Hopefully we see some improvements or we can kick to the next threat window.

[Ahoff]

4 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

The more intriguing looks have devolved with the primary making it further North before sliding East. Lots of warm tongue looks on last two run looking at EPS individual panels.

Hopefully we see some improvements or we can kick to the next threat window.

It seems that the solutions always get pretty ugly around 5-6 days out and try to come back around.  Hopefully, that’s the case here.

Also, it’s 19 out right now.  Very surprised by that, didn’t know it’d get this cold tonight.  Coldest of the month so far, which is definitely odd.  Lack of extremes on both ends this month is just strange.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

10 hours ago, Ahoff said:

It seems that the solutions always get pretty ugly around 5-6 days out and try to come back around.  Hopefully, that’s the case here.

Also, it’s 19 out right now.  Very surprised by that, didn’t know it’d get this cold tonight.  Coldest of the month so far, which is definitely odd.  Lack of extremes on both ends this month is just strange.

Overnight runs looking better again. Went from warm rainers to maybe needing to pull out the detour sign.

It was cold last night, expected a bitter morning not really paying attention to the forecast for temps but it had already warmed up near 30 by the time I left for work this morning.

[north pgh]

3 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Overnight runs looking better again. Went from warm rainers to maybe needing to pull out the detour sign.

It was cold last night, expected a bitter morning not really paying attention to the forecast for temps but it had already warmed up near 30 by the time I left for work this morning.

It's funny all the changes in the models day to day. Yesterday the GFS was a bad run for us and the Canadian was great. Today the GFS us great and the Canadian is bad. Let's bring them together and give us an 8 plus snowstorm.

[Ahoff]

Starting to look like Monday-Tuesday isn't going to be anything special.  Mostly rain as it looks.  Hopefully the one later in the week.

[jwilson]

I see two main systems right now: Monday/Tuesday and then Thursday/Friday.  Next weekend perhaps has the most potential, but what's depicted on the Euro would look a lot better if it dug and made a turn up the coast.  Instead, it just ejects due east.  We don't do poorly, though it feels like wasted potential.

If the confluence is the issue, then we'll have to wait for it to relax and hope we can time a storm appropriately.

There's something else behind that, too, Sunday/Monday (31-1st) but it's too far out and has other pieces in front to know how it will interact.  Late January storms are somewhat rare, for whatever reason.  Maybe this February won't be like a typical Nina and we get a refresh to re-open the big storm window.