Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️

[RitualOfTheTrout]

2 hours ago, north pgh said:

We are the lucky ones this time. 95% of the country would love to be in our spot on Christmas Eve. 

This 100%. Baring a total failure in models we should all at a minimum have a fresh 2 inches on the ground for Christmas day as well as flakes in the air and cold temperatures throughout. Hallmark movie scenery should be had by all.

I do think areas east of the city but outside the ridges will be on the lower end which includes my yard. Further West you go from the city towards Ohio stand a better chance to bust high but models will struggle nailing down a 25 mile shift one way or the other.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

52 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Is it tracking with the models?

 

Also, what are the chances of lake effect throughout the day tomorrow?  Erie and those areas will be getting heavy lake effect snow, is it possible to see that make it down here, or will the wind not be favorable?  I know it seems lake effect is kind of hard to forecast here, so hopefully we can benefit a little.

Not a great setup for LES in our area, the flow tomorrow will turn more WSW which should cut off lake moisture for us.

[Rd9108]

HRRR looks like it has us changing over around 2 or 3 AM. I'll be curious to see how well that holds. The mix line is starting to approach PA just past Canton it looks like. 

[north pgh]

10 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

HRRR looks like it has us changing over around 2 or 3 AM. I'll be curious to see how well that holds. The mix line is starting to approach PA just past Canton it looks like. 

No it looks like 9:00 pm seems to be changeover time.

[Rd9108]

2 minutes ago, north pgh said:

No it looks like 9:00 pm seems to be changeover time.

Whoops my mistake I guess I dont understand the time stamps on there. 

[MikeB_01]

Cold Front on its way into Youngstown. A sharp one right there.



.

[KPITSnow]

4 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Cold Front on its way into Youngstown. A sharp one right there.



.

Have to think this bodes well for us.

[rickymortyx]

Just now, KPITSnow said:

Have to think this bodes well for us.

looks good to me

[SteelCity87]

Snow line is nearing the WV panhandle. 31 degrees and light snow in eastern Ohio currently. 

[KPITSnow]

Anyone with a good radar site since nws is unusable?

[Burghblizz]

17 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Anyone with a good radar site since nws is unusable?

Intellicast is pretty much weenie radar because its pretty sensitive and makes snow shields look huge - but I find its pretty good in outlining R/S lines

[Ahoff]

I hope this is still progressing on schedule.  I'm a little nervous we'll get screwed.

[north pgh]

31 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Anyone with a good radar site since nws is unusable?

RadarScope is the best.

[SteelCity87]

2 minutes ago, north pgh said:

RadarScope is the best.

That snow line has not budged for a good while now. 

[Rd9108]

1 minute ago, SteelCity87 said:

That snow line has not budged for a good while now. 

It was supposed to slow down like this. Don't worry. 

[Ahoff]

The trends at the NWS have been good.  More WSW to the west, including Beaver County, and totals still 4"-6", high end at 8", low end is now up to 3".  Percentages of surpassing certain amounts have increased across the board.  SREF Plumes are now over 4.5".

[KPITSnow]

It’s already snowing in beaver apparently 

[SteelCity87]

33 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

It was supposed to slow down like this. Don't worry. 

Just the weenie in me hoping for a quicker changeover 

[Mailman]

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The leading edge of shallow cold air at 2200UTC is straddling the
forecast area, stretched from near Marienville PA to near Pittsburgh
to near Fairmont WV. Atop this shallow layer remains a relatively
warm tongue of air, leading to a PTYPE transition across wrn PA/ern
OH and the nrn WV panhandle. Farther west near ZZV, cold air has
successfully eroded the warm tongue, leading to a region of all snow
from near PHD to ZZV.

Prior forecast (see below) identified a focused region of ern OH 
where conditions will be favorable for considerable snowfall rates 
this evening as still colder air invades and lift/saturation are 
maximized through the dendritic growth zone. This region still seems 
to be where the highest totals are likely. Headlines were continued, 
but upgraded for a few counties adjacent to the ongoing warning in 
line with the latest information available.

The latest expectation is that snow rates in ern OH could potentially
reach 1-2" per hour for a window this evening. By 0600UTC, a dry 
slot will erode moisture aloft, which should bring an end to 
widespread threat of heavy snow. This dry slot brings some concern 
about snow amounts for wrn PA, where a late transition to snow (as 
most models suggest) may preclude totals quite as high as previously 
forecasted. Dry, fluffy snow likely will continue past 0600UTC, but 
fall rates will be limited. The ridges, however, will remain at a
temperature favorable for highly efficient snow ratios, and still
could see notable totals by mid-day tomorrow. 

[Rd9108]

3 minutes ago, Mailman said:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The leading edge of shallow cold air at 2200UTC is straddling the
forecast area, stretched from near Marienville PA to near Pittsburgh
to near Fairmont WV. Atop this shallow layer remains a relatively
warm tongue of air, leading to a PTYPE transition across wrn PA/ern
OH and the nrn WV panhandle. Farther west near ZZV, cold air has
successfully eroded the warm tongue, leading to a region of all snow
from near PHD to ZZV.

Prior forecast (see below) identified a focused region of ern OH 
where conditions will be favorable for considerable snowfall rates 
this evening as still colder air invades and lift/saturation are 
maximized through the dendritic growth zone. This region still seems 
to be where the highest totals are likely. Headlines were continued, 
but upgraded for a few counties adjacent to the ongoing warning in 
line with the latest information available.

The latest expectation is that snow rates in ern OH could potentially
reach 1-2" per hour for a window this evening. By 0600UTC, a dry 
slot will erode moisture aloft, which should bring an end to 
widespread threat of heavy snow. This dry slot brings some concern 
about snow amounts for wrn PA, where a late transition to snow (as 
most models suggest) may preclude totals quite as high as previously 
forecasted. Dry, fluffy snow likely will continue past 0600UTC, but 
fall rates will be limited. The ridges, however, will remain at a
temperature favorable for highly efficient snow ratios, and still
could see notable totals by mid-day tomorrow. 

Hate to see it. We probably will still atleast get a few inches but the higher amounts look very unlikely. 

[SteelCity87]

3 minutes ago, Mailman said:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The leading edge of shallow cold air at 2200UTC is straddling the
forecast area, stretched from near Marienville PA to near Pittsburgh
to near Fairmont WV. Atop this shallow layer remains a relatively
warm tongue of air, leading to a PTYPE transition across wrn PA/ern
OH and the nrn WV panhandle. Farther west near ZZV, cold air has
successfully eroded the warm tongue, leading to a region of all snow
from near PHD to ZZV.

Prior forecast (see below) identified a focused region of ern OH 
where conditions will be favorable for considerable snowfall rates 
this evening as still colder air invades and lift/saturation are 
maximized through the dendritic growth zone. This region still seems 
to be where the highest totals are likely. Headlines were continued, 
but upgraded for a few counties adjacent to the ongoing warning in 
line with the latest information available.

The latest expectation is that snow rates in ern OH could potentially
reach 1-2" per hour for a window this evening. By 0600UTC, a dry 
slot will erode moisture aloft, which should bring an end to 
widespread threat of heavy snow. This dry slot brings some concern 
about snow amounts for wrn PA, where a late transition to snow (as 
most models suggest) may preclude totals quite as high as previously 
forecasted. Dry, fluffy snow likely will continue past 0600UTC, but 
fall rates will be limited. The ridges, however, will remain at a
temperature favorable for highly efficient snow ratios, and still
could see notable totals by mid-day tomorrow. 

Just give me 3" and I'll be happy. No Grinch dry slot should be able to stop that I hope. 

[Ahoff]

4 minutes ago, Mailman said:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The leading edge of shallow cold air at 2200UTC is straddling the
forecast area, stretched from near Marienville PA to near Pittsburgh
to near Fairmont WV. Atop this shallow layer remains a relatively
warm tongue of air, leading to a PTYPE transition across wrn PA/ern
OH and the nrn WV panhandle. Farther west near ZZV, cold air has
successfully eroded the warm tongue, leading to a region of all snow
from near PHD to ZZV.

Prior forecast (see below) identified a focused region of ern OH 
where conditions will be favorable for considerable snowfall rates 
this evening as still colder air invades and lift/saturation are 
maximized through the dendritic growth zone. This region still seems 
to be where the highest totals are likely. Headlines were continued, 
but upgraded for a few counties adjacent to the ongoing warning in 
line with the latest information available.

The latest expectation is that snow rates in ern OH could potentially
reach 1-2" per hour for a window this evening. By 0600UTC, a dry 
slot will erode moisture aloft, which should bring an end to 
widespread threat of heavy snow. This dry slot brings some concern 
about snow amounts for wrn PA, where a late transition to snow (as 
most models suggest) may preclude totals quite as high as previously 
forecasted. Dry, fluffy snow likely will continue past 0600UTC, but 
fall rates will be limited. The ridges, however, will remain at a
temperature favorable for highly efficient snow ratios, and still
could see notable totals by mid-day tomorrow. 

Sucks.  Looks like the screw job may happen.  Figures.

[KPITSnow]

Not too worried...hrrr and RAP still both give a solid 4-6 after changeover.

[Rd9108]

Just now, KPITSnow said:

Not too worried...hrrr and RAP still both give a solid 4-6 after changeover.

I think we all just want a White Christmas. 4-6 is more than enough for that. 

[KPITSnow]

Also that dry slot looks mainly East of us in AGC.

[SteelCity87]

6 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Sucks.  Looks like the screw job may happen.  Figures.

We just had 10" last week and will 100% have a white Christmas. All is well lol. 

[Rd9108]

2 minutes ago, SteelCity87 said:

We just had 10" last week and will 100% have a white Christmas. All is well lol. 

This... we are getting greedy lol

[CoraopolisWx]

8 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Sucks.  Looks like the screw job may happen.  Figures.

Hopefully, these mid level shenanigans will be dealt with sooner than not.

Especially when the best rates come through.

[Ahoff]

6 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

This... we are getting greedy lol

Yes, and I’ll stay greedy after the pitiful recent winter’s we’ve had, lol!

it’s just we’ve seen this kind of thing many times and I’ve been screwed many times.  I hope it isn’t one of those.

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

All precip here has ended right now.....we’ll see what happens!