Rd9108 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ecanem said: 0z NAM looks like a track right on that patch. Looks like a jackpot for us. Hopefully it holds. 3k NAM looks pretty warm at first with some mixing. No idea about the layers and what not that is above my pay grade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 NAM is maybe a tick west with the heaviest axis, but similar for us to 18z (which was more robust than 12z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 13 minutes ago, Ecanem said: 0z NAM looks like a track right on that patch. Looks like a jackpot for us. Hopefully it holds. Cool. Yes, the jackpot looks like it's right on us. Not too far in the future either, so we should do pretty well. This has been a check of a winter so far, I really hope it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: 3k NAM looks pretty warm at first with some mixing. No idea about the layers and what not that is above my pay grade. Yeah when I switched over to my weather models sub and looked at the snowmap it looks west but the radar on tropical tidbits looks like it’s all snow. I’m guessing it has to do with the mixing layers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Looks like we may get some of the best rates possibly being so close to the low. I'll take that. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 GFS is more progressive than the NAM, but both get to about that 5” to 7” range E to W. NAM has it snowing about 6 hours later into Christmas Day. The upper levels have a closed low with negatively tilted trough. Might be a good sign that this meanders a bit as opposed quickly sliding away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 16 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: GFS is more progressive than the NAM, but both get to about that 5” to 7” range E to W. NAM has it snowing about 6 hours later into Christmas Day. The upper levels have a closed low with negatively tilted trough. Might be a good sign that this meanders a bit as opposed quickly sliding away. You never know what a closed off low is going to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Trends overnight didn’t look great from what I could tell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 ^So, the same as last time? Trends started going bad in the last day, and went back last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ahoff said: ^So, the same as last time? Trends started going bad in the last day, and went back last minute. We will see. We still get several inches but really are on a razors edge. edit: looking at the HRRR we still are in the 4-6 range. Ohio gets obliterated with 10 inches on it though lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 I can’t figure out which model to look at for the HRRR-there’s like 900 options...lol can someone post through midnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 We still look like we're in the 3"-6" range and that should good for us, I know I'll be happy with it. Ohio, is probably hoping that what happened on the 1st does not repeat here. We were the beneficiaries of their misfortune that time so, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 33 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: I can’t figure out which model to look at for the HRRR-there’s like 900 options...lol can someone post through midnight? Thru midnight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 Thru tomorrow afternoon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Just now, north pgh said: Thru tomorrow afternoon Ends pretty well, 4"-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Still has us in the 6"+ range, adjusted west, which makes more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Honestly give me a few inches of snow and I'll be happy. Can't jackpot every storm. Let Ohio get in on the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Honestly give me a few inches of snow and I'll be happy. Can't jackpot every storm. Let Ohio get in on the fun. We are the lucky ones this time. 95% of the country would love to be in our spot on Christmas Eve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 12 minutes ago, north pgh said: We are the lucky ones this time. 95% of the country would love to be in our spot on Christmas Eve. 100% this. Even snow haters love snow on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 9 minutes ago, north pgh said: We are the lucky ones this time. 95% of the country would love to be in our spot on Christmas Eve. Yes and I’m happy for you guys closer to the city and further west-you’re gonna have the higher totals from this it looks like!! Merry Christma!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 30 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: Yes and I’m happy for you guys closer to the city and further west-you’re gonna have the higher totals from this it looks like!! Merry Christma!! You too! Higher totals are not a big deal when some of us will have 2-4 and some 4-6. For as many times that we have a brown, warm Christmas I’m happy with a nice coating. This year is a 1 in 20 year thing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Front is though Zanesville. Keep it movin’ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 19 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: Front is though Zanesville. Keep it movin’ Is it tracking with the models? Also, what are the chances of lake effect throughout the day tomorrow? Erie and those areas will be getting heavy lake effect snow, is it possible to see that make it down here, or will the wind not be favorable? I know it seems lake effect is kind of hard to forecast here, so hopefully we can benefit a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Is it tracking with the models? Just noticed the latest Obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Just now, Mailman said: Man, we change over even an hour or two early we go from 4-6 to a warning level event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 10 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Man, we change over even an hour or two early we go from 4-6 to a warning level event Not out of the possibility at all. All depends on the changeover. Usually we are on the losing side but maybe we get lucky. Gonna be interesting to see how fast that front moves through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Latest advisory cut the snow total down a little but added freezing rain and sleet to the mix. Has the changeover to all snow not until after midnight locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Merry Christmas everyone and good luck with the snow tonight! I’ll be in Johnstown for this and it looks like one of the few times where west is best. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Still like our position here. Might have to eat some rain to get in on the best rates. I’ve seen cold dry air kill the back edge of a healthy precipitation shield too many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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