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Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️


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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Precipitation is beginning to wind down across the Upper Ohio Valley
and Allegheny Mountains. Heavy snowfall has fallen across much of
the area, leading to hazardous travel conditions. Winter weather
advisories and warnings remain in effect through dawn. 3 to 6 inches
fell across much of eastern Ohio into the Northern West Virginia
panhandle, while the Pittsburgh metro received in between 6 and 12.
The local "bullseye" as far as snow accumulation is east towards
Indiana County, with multiple reports over a foot. Please see the
latest local storm reports (LSRs) and Public Information Statement
(PNS) to see the latest snow reports.

Precipitation has backed off significantly, or has come to an end
altogether, for areas west of the northern WV Panhandle. Meanwhile,
high snow rates in excess of an inch are still possible east of I-79
where the exiting TROWAL/Fgen band shifts off to the north and east.
The I-79 corridor, Pittsburgh included, is looking at a possible inch
of additional accumulation while locations farther east from Clarion
southward through Indiana and Greensburg may easily pick up an
additional 3 or more inches of snowfall before the higher rates end
in the next few hours.

By daybreak, dry air will begin to move into the dendritic growth
zone such that any remaining dendrites will turn into an area of
freezing drizzle. However, low-level moisture may also be lost,
coincident with widespread meso- and synoptic- scale lift also
ending. So most precipitation should be out of there area by dawn or
shortly thereafter. A few models pick up on a fetch of lake-enhanced
moisture with low-level instability sufficient enough to produce a
few flakes in the mid-afternoon... however, accumulation will nil and
any impacts insignificant. 

As far as temperature, lowered the immediate forecast down a few
degrees based on observations. Temps will be slow to come up tomorrow
given the cold air mass, cloud cover, and snowpack. Highs will range
from around 30-35 for most of the area and few degrees colder in the
higher elevations of the Allegheny Mountains.
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9 hours ago, blackngoldrules said:

Yeah, I remember when you were "BethelParkSnowNut". I grew up in Westmoreland County then I moved to this area back in 1998 after I met my wife and she lived in South Park at the time. Lived there and Bethel for 21 years with her until she passed away last year. I thought about moving since but I like it here so I'm still here for now. Yeah, I'd like to meet sometime whenever you're in the area.

 

Wow I’m sorry man I didn’t know-I’m so sorry to hear that.

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17 minutes ago, BigO60 said:

I measured close to 11 in Squirrel Hill. Anyone know where NWS gets their data from? It seems everyone is measuring above their 9.4 mark.

They are in moon, and it makes sense as west was going to have lower totals. If you look at beaver county which they are close to they are in line with that. 
 

They are in a good spot to measure totals though and I feel do a good job. I know DC folks are usually howling about their totals at DCA as I’ve seen that Cory get like 24-30 inches but officially they end up with like 15-18. 

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1 hour ago, BigO60 said:

I measured close to 11 in Squirrel Hill. Anyone know where NWS gets their data from? It seems everyone is measuring above their 9.4 mark.

Their office where the measurements are official, is down the road a bit from the Walmart up in Moon. 
I think the banding wasn’t quite as proficient out in Moon, as opposed to the City and points east.

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Decided to measure in various places to get a total. Majority of the places was around 10.5-11. On top of my garbage can lid I got a solid 12 inches. Regardless of the total great storm. Looks like maybe a cold front on Christmas. Let's see if we can hold on to some of our snow until then. 

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4 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Decided to measure in various places to get a total. Majority of the places was around 10.5-11. On top of my garbage can lid I got a solid 12 inches. Regardless of the total great storm. Looks like maybe a cold front on Christmas. Let's see if we can hold on to some of our snow until then. 

Doesn't look exceptionally warm.  A few days in the 40s mostly 30s.  Hopefully, that's enough.  Maybe the snow cover can keep highs down from what they are forecasting?

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Awesome storm! Had all the emotions of a typical storm in the lead up as well haha. A little surprised by nws total give they were around 7" at 7pm. It makes sense for sure. Just thought it'd be higher considering they were getting decent radar returns for a good 4-5 more hours after that. 

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10.5" storm total here, measured at 3 AM (when the snow was officially over).  I was at 9.8 before the final couple bands pushed it over the top.  The Euro is a winner here, along with the HREFs (the only short-term model that had us in the 10-12" range in that final 24-hour period).  The GFS was awful for this storm, perhaps unsurprisingly.  Too many mesoscale features for it to handle.  The NAM waffled too much.  It was correct on a couple runs, I suppose.

Now enjoy the snow gifs.  Most were taken at the height of the storm where we briefly touched 4"/hr rates.

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GAnTxxI.gif

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1 hour ago, Mailman said:

Yeah.. all the models seem to be hinting (however you wanna call it 8 days out) at the possibility of some holiday flakes.  Would be nice. I need a couple days off from the models, though.  It's a grind that can wear you down.  

I just opened my phone at 3:00 out of habit to get ready for the NAM

 

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