ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 HRRR looking a lot better this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 hour ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: HRRR looking a lot better this morning ? I see it giving us 3-4 inches at most? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 NWS upped totals in the warning from 5-8 to 6-9 I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 ? I see it giving us 3-4 inches at most?Is this some kind of troll or are you serious?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 NWS upped totals in the warning from 5-8 to 6-9 I see.Yep. I'll take it, especially since I don't have to drive in it today. Two good snowfalls before the winter season officially begins. Not bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutnOakmont Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I'm confused about the HRRR right now, too. I use pivotal weather and it did look pretty bleak. Is it because the latest run only goes up to 18 hours? Do other sites give more data? Sorry if that's a dumb question! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 so you're saying theres a chance... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 hour ago, lwg8tr0514 said: Is this some kind of troll or are you serious? . https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=HRRR&area=US-NE&ps=area# Take a look at hour 18 totals. Putrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 34 minutes ago, OutnOakmont said: I'm confused about the HRRR right now, too. I use pivotal weather and it did look pretty bleak. Is it because the latest run only goes up to 18 hours? Do other sites give more data? Sorry if that's a dumb question! It only goes out to 18 but it is also done snowing in the model by then also. the RAP is not nearly as bad though and is pretty solidly 6-8 inches. I still think this has massive bust potential given that a 25-50 mile shift is going to be the difference between ten inches and 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 It’s now time. F the models and enjoy the snow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 The 6z euro continues the trend of cutting back...kuchera totals are 7-8 inches in AGC (had been over 10 forever) and that means 10:1 are likely closer to 6. given how bad the HRRR is I just don’t think this event is going to go well give how everything has been trending. Plus, Climo...it always wins out here. edit: just saw the euro qpf map...about .6-.7 inches from west to East in the county. have to hope at this point that we get lucky to get under good banding...otherwise I’ll be really happy if I just get 6 inches or more. Sticking with my 2-4...maybe 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: The 6z euro continues the trend of cutting back...kuchera totals are 7-8 inches in AGC (had been over 10 forever) and that means 10:1 are likely closer to 6. given how bad the HRRR is I just don’t think this event is going to go well give how everything has been trending. Plus, Climo...it always wins out here. It is tough to gauge these maps with various snow algorithms when trying to ascertain what has changed one run to another etc. Here is 6z Euro total qpf. Looks like Allegheny ranges from about .6 - .8 from east to west across the county. Obviously snow growth / ratios will determine what that equates to on the ground but seems pretty reasonable imho the city should end up with around 6-7 inches. GFS is a tenth or so less .5-.7 across the county and the 3k NAM is probably right in the middle of the two. If this holds for 12z runs we are game on. The trend we saw in my opinion had a little bit to do with both the storm moving a bit SE and the models coming down to earth on qpf amounts due to getting a better handle on where the CCB sets up, which they all tend to be high at range. I personally never bought into any of those maps showing 10+, for something like that we really need the closed low feature. I think that was one of Joe Denardo's rules of thumb for big snows for our area, if you aren't on the northern periphery of a closed 700mb low be very careful forecasting big snows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 hours ago, blackngoldrules said: Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 315 AM EST Wed Dec 16 2020 PAZ014>016-021-022-029-031-073-075-WVZ021-509-161615- /O.CON.KPBZ.WS.W.0004.201216T1200Z-201217T1200Z/ Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Allegheny-Armstrong-Washington-Greene- Westmoreland-Fayette-Marion-Monongalia- Including the cities of Butler, Clarion, Punxsutawney, Brookville, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Kittanning, Ford City, Washington, Canonsburg, Waynesburg, Murrysville, Greensburg, New Kensington, Lower Burrell, Latrobe, Monessen, Uniontown, Fairmont, and Morgantown 315 AM EST Wed Dec 16 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9 inches. * WHERE...Portions of northwest, southwest and western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Please report snow or ice by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPittsburgh The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway and traffic conditions. They upped it from 5-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Yeah kind of a strange result from the NWS to up my totals overnight. That seems to go against the grain of the model trends with a less moisture-laden system. It was 4-8" when I went to bed and 6-9" now. I like the 4-8" call and think that was adequate. I think somewhere between 4-6" is the most likely result for the majority of our sub, exclusions to our eastern-most residents that could get more. Still a slight chance we hit higher end totals if we get the banding right, I'm just less confident in that now. Also strange to see the GFS so far apart from most every other model still. While it's a relative disappoint to what could have been, I think everyone here would have signed up for two 3"+ storms before Christmas, especially knowing it was a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 14 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: It is tough to gauge these maps with various snow algorithms when trying to ascertain what has changed one run to another etc. Here is 6z Euro total qpf. Looks like Allegheny ranges from about .6 - .8 from east to west across the county. Obviously snow growth / ratios will determine what that equates to on the ground but seems pretty reasonable imho the city should end up with around 6-7 inches. GFS is a tenth or so less .5-.7 across the county and the 3k NAM is probably right in the middle of the two. If this holds for 12z runs we are game on. The trend we saw in my opinion had a little bit to do with both the storm moving a bit SE and the models coming down to earth on qpf amounts due to getting a better handle on where the CCB sets up, which they all tend to be high at range. I personally never bought into any of those maps showing 10+, for something like that we really need the closed low feature. I think that was one of Joe Denardo's rules of thumb for big snows for our area, if you aren't on the northern periphery of a closed 700mb low be very careful forecasting big snows. Good points. That’s also why Joe said he never gave accumulation totals until 48 hours before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Also, shouldn't we be looking at the storm it's self right now? Like is it more robust or less than modeled, more west or more east? I haven't followed that part, so not sure where it stands relative to what it was supposed to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, jwilson said: Yeah kind of a strange result from the NWS to up my totals overnight. That seems to go against the grain of the model trends with a less moisture-laden system. It was 4-8" when I went to bed and 6-9" now. I like the 4-8" call and think that was adequate. I think somewhere between 4-6" is the most likely result for the majority of our sub, exclusions to our eastern-most residents that could get more. Still a slight chance we hit higher end totals if we get the banding right, I'm just less confident in that now. Also strange to see the GFS so far apart from most every other model still. While it's a relative disappoint to what could have been, I think everyone here would have signed up for two 3"+ storms before Christmas, especially knowing it was a Nina. I think the disappointment isn’t the fact we get two 3+ storms before Christmas...it is that it is continuing the pattern of us getting 4 or 5 inches while 100 miles a way they get 12-18 inches. If this was a clipper (we even get those anymore?) it would be great but it’s painful watching others get a historic storm while we have to be happy with an advisory level event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I think we need to disregard the HRRR a bit, it is starting with our temperatures around 34-35 degrees. We are at 30 and it looks to only really rise to about 32, the HRRR is cutting our totals because of warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Good luck everyone, regardless of outcome it was a fun storm to track. Time to radar watch and let the chips fall 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 11 minutes ago, Ahoff said: I think we need to disregard the HRRR a bit, it is starting with our temperatures around 34-35 degrees. We are at 30 and it looks to only really rise to about 32, the HRRR is cutting our totals because of warm air. It still only gives like .5 an inch of QPF so I don’t think it is warmth cutting our totals. People kept telling me to look at short term models and right now they aren’t great either....the RAP is also only showing a 4-6 type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Well let's see what happens. A couple days ago we weren't even in the game. Now we may score a warning level snowfall. Time to observe the storm itself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: It still only gives like .5 an inch of QPF so I don’t think it is warmth cutting our totals. People kept telling me to look at short term models and right now they aren’t great either....the RAP is also only showing a 4-6 type event. Please.... we know already how disappointed you are. We do not need to see it posted 5 times an hour. If you want to keep complaining take it here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 13 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: I think the disappointment isn’t the fact we get two 3+ storms before Christmas...it is that it is continuing the pattern of us getting 4 or 5 inches while 100 miles a way they get 12-18 inches. If this was a clipper (we even get those anymore?) it would be great but it’s painful watching others get a historic storm while we have to be happy with an advisory level event. I can understand that. It is unfortunate. Big storms are too rare for Pittsburgh. However, for some hope today, the HREFs still have a 30% chance of more than a foot, and the ensemble mean remains between 10-12" across most of Allegheny. I think it might be crazy, but at least there's a tiny bit of guidance that still looks like the 12Z NAM from yesterday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutnOakmont Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Any measurable snow before Christmas is a win in my book. I'm super excited to put on some Chevy Chase, break out the wrapping paper, and enjoy the snow fall tonight! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Upper level low should start throwing some white stuff soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 As for nowcasting time, I do see some 30 DBZ returns to our south already, which would be pretty far ahead of schedule. I'm trying to see if it's actually snowing in Morgantown, but it doesn't look like it yet. I'm guessing we're still in virga territory. Edit - ah I do see a few flakes in downtown. Perhaps it has started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 It wasn't snowing in Morgantown as of 20 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 How nice. lol. Hopefully get one of these later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 The NAM runs actually aren’t bad. About .8qpf. At this point I’d run with that happily. If I get 6+ won’t complain a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Mailman said: It wasn't snowing in Morgantown as of 20 minutes ago. I'm checking the cams here: http://wv511.org/#MapPlace:-80.146723587035:39.608696977762:-79.817133743284:39.711115431707 It looks like it is actually starting to snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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