Rd9108 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Well the NAM is correcting I'm hearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Well the NAM is correcting I'm hearing. Yeah..to normal lol. We still get 1 inch of qpf. I don’t think 20 inches was ever in the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Will way though if this ends up bumping south East after all the trends towards us the last day and we get a 2-4 event it might be one of the more brutal storms we’ve had recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 18z NAM: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Mailman said: 18z NAM: Still a great look, hopefully thought not a trend starting in a last minute move East! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: Still a great look, hopefully thought not a trend starting in a last minute move East! Absolutely still a great look-might be a little error this runs as all the other members have us in pretty much the same spot less than 20 hours away now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: Absolutely still a great look-might be a little error this runs as all the other members have us in pretty much the same spot less than 20 hours away now It’s just really hard to not think the rug is going to get pulled out from under us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Still 14”. That’s pretty great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 NAM has gone from 10-14 to 9-12. Taking the low ends of all the models NAM 9, GFS, 7, CMC 8 and Euro 10. I'm guessing we are looking more and more like a solid 8-10 inches with areas to our east a foot or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 38 minutes ago, southpark said: Do we know when they really expect this to start ramping up and accumulating on the roads in Allegheny county? Probably mid-afternoon (1-3 PM). There's some flux, but the evening commute will almost certainly be poor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Still a great look, hopefully thought not a trend starting in a last minute move East! Looks pretty similar to Euro. We are getting close enough now I fully expected the NAM to come back down to earth. Honestly 14 is still probably overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 The latest HRRR has the snow starting between 11 and 12 tomorrow. Looking good so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 13 minutes ago, north pgh said: The latest HRRR has the snow starting between 11 and 12 tomorrow. Looking good so far. HRRR looking weak compared to what’s being spit out on the euro and NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: HRRR looking weak compared to what’s being spit out on the euro and NAM? I think it is still coming into range. I would take that any day though! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Every model gives PIT at least six inches. Mesoscales included. Some are better, some are around that mark. Averaging them, we get about 11" (across six different models and assuming 10:1 ratios through the entirety). Perhaps ironically, the SREF plume average is also right around 11", which is up slightly from the previous run. There are less lower members and two that are now higher (over 17"). That's the good news. The bad to be aware of but isn't confirmed yet: I hope we don't see a big SE correction last minute, but it's not impossible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 20 minutes ago, jwilson said: Every model gives PIT at least six inches. Mesoscales included. Some are better, some are around that mark. Averaging them, we get about 11" (across six different models and assuming 10:1 ratios through the entirety). Perhaps ironically, the SREF plume average is also right around 11", which is up slightly from the previous run. There are less lower members and two that are now higher (over 17"). That's the good news. The bad to be aware of but isn't confirmed yet: I hope we don't see a big SE correction last minute, but it's not impossible. For now the 18z NAM is well within the envelope of tracks. If we see a similar issue in the rest of 18z data and a continuation in 00z then you could argue a trend back SE is underway but we are running out of time and the goal posts should be fairly narrow at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: And there it is the dreaded southeast trend. Hopefully, it was just that one run. 18" was pretty far fetched. At this point I'd expect somewhere between 6-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 18z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 My god, how does this ALWAYS happen..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Take solace that the mesos are more important now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: My god, how does this ALWAYS happen..... What was the GFS at 12z? Around 7"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Ahoff said: What was the GFS at 12z? Around 7"? Yeah, but look at that gradient. Another 25 mile bump and we are looking at 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 This was 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Rd9108 said: This was 12z Given how close this is for us that’s a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: Yeah, but look at that gradient. Another 25 mile bump and we are looking at 3 inches. Chill man. GFS has always been the more progressive model. Is it right? Is the NAM right?? Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Rd9108 said: Chill man. GFS has always been the more progressive model. Is it right? Is the NAM right?? Who knows. The NAM also made a significant shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Adjusting my call. 2-4 as the last minute model shift to the East happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, KPITSnow said: The NAM also made a significant shift. And what happens if it correct back west next run. The NAM is still like 10inches. Just relax and see what happens with the other models. 00z will be the test. If they look bleak then we temper our expectations and just be happy with whatever we get. Maybe this is exactly why the NWS doesn't run with the highest model. 5-8 storm is still a solid storm and it's only December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pghwx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The gfs hasn't been great all year. I'm hardly even looking at it for my own personal forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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