KPITSnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Man, it’s really good that we have had a good winter...otherwise we’d probably be in total meltdown over areas around Houston getting more snow than us potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Man, it’s really good that we have had a good winter...otherwise we’d probably be in total meltdown over areas around Houston getting more snow than us potentially. They’re also under a wind chill warning because “wind chills may fall below zero.” We’re now up to 47 states that have an active watch/warning/advisory for either snow or cold, and 18 of those are for the entire state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 NAM is running. Not looking good vs gfs so far for the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ecanem said: NAM is running. Not looking good vs gfs so far for the second wave. NAM looks like a complete torch. Edit: Not a complete torch, but an absolutely ugly ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 NAM Says you better go to erie to stay snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Pretty crazy just like 10 days ago we were talking about possible record breaking cold and now we sweating rain for the same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: NAM looks like a complete torch. Edit: Not a complete torch, but an absolutely ugly ice storm. Half an inch of ice and not one flake of snow in the second wave? And the track of the low has officially entered Ohio. Forget about a Youngstown special, this is a Fort Wayne special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Latest SREF plumes are only at 4.5 mean over the period. Not a great sign, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Lol, all of PA at least mixes to ice on the NAM. We turn to plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 The NAM manages to bring the surface low literally right over allegheny county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 We are probably going to get more snow from the Thursday deal at this point. Off topic but in hearing there is a ton of accidents all over the city. Don't drive if you don't have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Pretty crazy just like 10 days ago we were talking about possible record breaking cold and now we sweating rain for the same time period. Yeah, remember when the models thought we’d wake up to -19 this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Ecanem said: The NAM manages to bring the surface low literally right over allegheny county. Climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: We are probably going to get more snow from the Thursday deal at this point. Off topic but in hearing there is a ton of accidents all over the city. Don't drive if you don't have to. Was surprised to see nothing on the county twitter page. Usually they mention something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 So there we have it. An inch and a half of snow from the first wave, almost half an inch of ice from the second wave, and it all melts and then some when temperatures rise into the mid to upper 30s Tuesday morning, if the NAM proves to be correct. Won’t sensationalize and say take down the watch this time because that amount of ice is no joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, CoraopolisWx said: Was surprised to see nothing on the county twitter page. Usually they mention something. Weird. Between all of the emergency calls and reports from the hospital of an increase of accidents this morning. You think they would have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethel975 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: We are probably going to get more snow from the Thursday deal at this point. Off topic but in hearing there is a ton of accidents all over the city. Don't drive if you don't have to. My dad texted me a bit a go and said his normal hour drive took him 2.5 hours because PGH was so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Ethel975 said: My dad texted me a bit a go and said his normal hour drive took him 2.5 hours because PGH was so bad. Yeah im not at work but I saw a snap chat of our alert board and it was accidents all over. 279, 65, 28 etc... Glad I'm not at work today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 22 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Lol, all of PA at least mixes to ice on the NAM. We turn to plain rain. 3k NAM brings plain rain all the way to I80 nearly on the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 17 minutes ago, TimB84 said: So there we have it. An inch and a half of snow from the first wave, almost half an inch of ice from the second wave, and it all melts and then some when temperatures rise into the mid to upper 30s Tuesday morning, if the NAM proves to be correct. Won’t sensationalize and say take down the watch this time because that amount of ice is no joke. So we definitely don't "have it" until it starts falling. The trends are bad, no denying, but it's also still not locked in. There's really no reason it doesn't trend back at the last few hours and there's no reason it doesn't trend us into a dry slot for most of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Ahoff said: So we definitely don't "have it" until it starts falling. The trends are bad, no denying, but it's also still not locked in. There's really no reason it doesn't trend back at the last few hours and there's no reason it doesn't trend us into a dry slot for most of the storm. There's always nowcasting surprises. Maybe we still get lucky with the main course. You never know. Euro does look better with the Thursday deal. Gotta keep an eye on that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ahoff said: So we definitely don't "have it" until it starts falling. The trends are bad, no denying, but it's also still not locked in. There's really no reason it doesn't trend back at the last few hours and there's no reason it doesn't trend us into a dry slot for most of the storm. So from an information and knowledge standpoint, how does the NAM usually do at this juncture? Does it typically run warm? Cold? I’m not all that well versed in the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 20 minutes ago, TimB84 said: So there we have it. An inch and a half of snow from the first wave, almost half an inch of ice from the second wave, and it all melts and then some when temperatures rise into the mid to upper 30s Tuesday morning, if the NAM proves to be correct. Won’t sensationalize and say take down the watch this time because that amount of ice is no joke. Taking the NAM verbatim there would be a brief period of ice but surface temperatures are 32-34 during the heaviest part, very little ice will form in that scenario. If the 12z NAM is right we go from light snow to sleet to ZR then mainly rain for the bulk of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Rd9108 said: There's always nowcasting surprises. Maybe we still get lucky with the main course. You never know. Euro does look better with the Thursday deal. Gotta keep an eye on that too Pretty much every threat this year has been a success. None of us can deny that. A miss like this was inevitable at some point, it happens at a minimum once a season. There's still more snow to be had over the next few weeks I'm sure. We've had a great season. I'm happy. Of course I do want more snow, lol. I'd love 10 more inches tomorrow, but I'm content overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: So from an information and knowledge standpoint, how does the NAM usually do at this juncture? Does it typically run warm? Cold? I’m not all that well versed in the NAM. I don't know, but still things can drift SE again, I'm sure it's happened numerous times before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 15 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Pretty much every threat this year has been a success. None of us can deny that. A miss like this was inevitable at some point, it happens at a minimum once a season. There's still more snow to be had over the next few weeks I'm sure. We've had a great season. I'm happy. Of course I do want more snow, lol. I'd love 10 more inches tomorrow, but I'm content overall. I think that’s an undeniable fact, with one caveat. If this snow season ends with the 49.7 inches we’ve had so far, and nothing more (unlikely, as it’s almost certain we’ll get at least a little more), I would classify that as a good but not necessarily “great” season. If that’s the final season total, it’s slightly above average. To use a sports analogy, if you will, a snow season with 49.7” would be like a Steelers season where they go 11-5 and win one playoff game before getting eliminated (certainly better than recent years, but “good, not great.”) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 So from an information and knowledge standpoint, how does the NAM usually do at this juncture? Does it typically run warm? Cold? I’m not all that well versed in the NAM.The NAM does a few things. It generally has way more ice than other models. It also can have a tendency to overdo the rate at which the system deepens. These rapidly deepening systems tend to over amplify and then push the rain snow line further north. NWS discussion from 8 am this morning still in the camp of the forecast remaining on track. I’ll be watching the HRRR and the SREFs (my favorites) today to see how things look. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: The NAM does a few things. It generally has way more ice than other models. It also can have a tendency to overdo the rate at which the system deepens. These rapidly deepening systems tend to over amplify and then push the rain snow line further north. NWS discussion from 8 am this morning still in the camp of the forecast remaining on track. I’ll be watching the HRRR and the SREFs (my favorites) today to see how things look. . Well the 12z HRRR certainly didn’t go in our favor either... NWS will keep the watch intact, as is, until they issue an advisory this afternoon for 2-4” of snow and up to 0.1” of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 GFS is also going to be a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Call me a Debby downer but give me plain rain over what some of these models are showing with the sleet and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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