southpark Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Mailman said: I'd have a skating rink outside if that NAM run plays out as depicted. I can't skate. Yeah crazy ice totals for greene and fayette. Let's hope it is just overdoing it because those amounts are crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, southpark said: Yeah crazy ice totals for greene and fayette. Let's hope it is just overdoing it because those amounts are crazy. It won't happen. Been here almost 40 years. Never had ice like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Mailman said: It won't happen. Been here almost 40 years. Never had ice like that. Yeah I figure it won't happen but still something to see depicted on a model. These trends continue though with the 0z tonight and 12z suite tomorrow would think they are going to have to up snow totals for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Gfs caving with temps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 DT, who normally does poorly for our area, thinks all snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Mailman said: DT, who normally does poorly for our area, thinks all snow. He usually doesn't even know where Pitt is. He finally fixed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 32 minutes ago, dj3 said: Gfs caving with temps Shows about 1.3” QPF too. Its still a little dicey with temps - but has a 12” bullseye in NE AGC. More slop to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 CMC not as impressed as the NAM and Euro. It absolutely obliterates Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: CMC not as impressed as the NAM and Euro. It absolutely obliterates Philly. Slowly moving in the right direction though. I think earlier today it wasn’t showing much at all. It seems as if guidance is honing in on 4 inches or so as the low end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, dj3 said: Slowly moving in the right direction though. I think earlier today it wasn’t showing much at all. It seems as if guidance is honing in on 4 inches or so as the low end. Trends have been great. If euro holds serve ill be more convinced that we may get warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Canadian is a good hit for here. As someone else said, 12z was a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 GEM is spitting out some insane totals. Over 3 feet for southeast PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Euro looking like a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutnOakmont Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Mailman said: Euro looking like a hit. Yes!!! I'm refreshing my page to get the frames loaded and getting more and more excited haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Euro is still on board. This has trended positively. Let's keep it going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Euro has that intial heavier band setting up just south. Eventually evens out a bit. This all would require clean front end and a prolonged back end - but looks very much in play. Love the relative wide swath everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6z Euro not a bad look, you can really see influences from the coastal pretty far west but not quite enough for here. Either way there seems to be a consensus forming for a narrow swath of decent totals (5-10 inches) somewhere in SWPA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Great looking trends overnight. Only a few more runs! SREF plumes at 8.3" NWS expected amount at 5", high end at 7". Good trends and a WWA added to us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Our 850 moisture transport isn't as robust as the eastern half of the state, but it's still decent. Even outside the paywall, there's good info on this site I like to use for the Euro : https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/temperature-f.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Also, if I read the WWA correctly it said it runs from 10pm tonight to 10pm tomorrow night. Are the models shutting the precipitation down before Monday now? Weren't they showing snow through most of Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Also, if I read the WWA correctly it said it runs from 10pm tonight to 10pm tomorrow night. Are the models shutting the precipitation down before Monday now? Weren't they showing snow through most of Monday? It's a bit unusual. I think they're trying to hedge their bets so to speak, knowing they can upgrade later if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 12z NAM is a great hit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: 12z NAM is a great hit. Looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The consistency that is starting to come in with the models is a very good sign. Led by the Euro (of course) we have been moving in the right direct since Thursday. A few things that concern me at this point. There is some dry air aloft seems to be eating away at some of the precip shield. Right now, there is only happening in NE Ohio and NW PA. I worry that there is not much room and if the dry air sinks a little bit further south, we could lose some precip for a while. The other thing is the DWTD coming in from the south. Its a hairpin away. The sounding of the 12z NAM show just how close it is in the mid levels. I could easily see us sleeting for a while tomorrow afternoon. Things look good for right now and Im feeling much better about a 6+ snow, but we need to stay where we are. Not a whole lot of room for error in the next few runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Agree - we are in a good spot between those two mitigators (agitators). But they lurk. I like that our swath has widened. I tend to think that even though that intial heavier burst is just to the south, mixing is much more of an issue. So I’d still bet North Hills does better than South Hills, even though total QPF is lighter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The GFS thermals are still terrible, but even with those rain issues, it manages to give us over 6" (including sleet). Even the NAM thermals are quite close to changeover from 1000-850. However, that's pretty much an ideal position for us, because straddling that line is where you get the best snowfall rates, and we're going to get most of our snowfall from the primary WAA. We need to it push close to maximize our returns. The coastal is the big wildcard and how close it tucks in to the coast. I am seeing a negative titled trough, but for us it is way too late. The CMC goes negative and crushes Philly, but it occludes tightly and cuts off all precip on the western side. Reminds me of the 2010 Miller B's that pasted the area. The GFS waits even longer to go negative. The NAM goes neutral at 84 hours, which again is too late. I assume it continues that progression into a negative tilt after. Might make things interesting for New England. Like most Miller B's, I don't think the coastal will give us much, but we could get lucky again like in December. That vort over NE at 500H remains too close for my liking. The NAM's precip shield looks a lot better than it did before, though. Where that vort appears to influence is in the CMC/RGEM's depiction of the event. Both models only give us 3-5" and that's a possibility to consider. I'll continue to worry about dryslotting until the event is over. We're going to be nowcasting that handoff. I'll feel better about our totals once we see how the initial slug of moisture holds up as it rolls over our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 For what’s its worth the HRRR is great 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, north pgh said: For what’s its worth the HRRR is great It will be fun nowcasting the intial surge. Need to get off to a good start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, north pgh said: For what’s its worth the HRRR is great Wow that looks really good. I’m more concerned with a dryslot vs the temperatures for my backyard. The gfs has been consistently too warm and has been slowly trending back towards other guidance for the last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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