north pgh Posted January 1, 2021 Author Share Posted January 1, 2021 35 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Happy New Year everyone! Looks like some solid blocking is showing up on the models. Here's to hopefully more tracking and more importantly big hits in our near future! Same to you! Don’t be surprised if we get some thunder late day tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 When do we think fortunes may turn back to snow? I saw a mention of around the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 19 minutes ago, Ahoff said: When do we think fortunes may turn back to snow? I saw a mention of around the 10th. The problem is with pattern changes you are gonna have the models having a hard time with solutions. Let's get the blocking first and go from there. You are about spot on date wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 16 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: The problem is with pattern changes you are gonna have the models having a hard time with solutions. Let's get the blocking first and go from there. You are about spot on date wise. If it's around the 10th, that's not too bad to wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Terribly ugly day today. 30s and rain is the worst weather there is, no contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Terribly ugly day today. 30s and rain is the worst weather there is, no contest.The dog days of winter. This is the time of year that is so tough. It’s cold, it’s dreary, and unless there is a storm to track it’s boring haha. Hoping for something to track soon. Second half of the month looks promising. Just need to hold out for it. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 30 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: The dog days of winter. This is the time of year that is so tough. It’s cold, it’s dreary, and unless there is a storm to track it’s boring haha. Hoping for something to track soon. Second half of the month looks promising. Just need to hold out for it. . Hopefully good enough to get above average snow and below average temperatures, and extend through February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 The stats say we have more snow coming. Every season with a December of 20"+, finished with at least 50" for the year. Obviously there's a first time for everything, but the odds are in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 33 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: The stats say we have more snow coming. Every season with a December of 20"+, finished with at least 50" for the year. Obviously there's a first time for everything, but the odds are in our favor. Hopefully. Looked at the models long range today, and they didn't look great, of course they are long range and they showed storm opportunities, so there could be chances. Plus, those far more knowledgeable seem confident there will be a flip in a week or so. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 I nice little snow shower popped up and sitting over my area. Picked up a good coating of snow on everything. Very weird and isolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, north pgh said: I nice little snow shower popped up and sitting over my area. Picked up a good coating of snow on everything. Very weird and isolated. Yeah not much bigger than Ross, moving slowly SE. Lol Had a very light coating this morning here also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 No discrete threats to follow yet, but looks like we should have a period with a more favorable pattern coming up. That could change (the no discrete threat part) in short notice though with all the short waves flying around. I wouldn’t mind some clippers with some enhancement off the still relatively warm lakes as appetizers for some bigger storms later in the month either. I do think we enter a period where misses South / East are more likely when blocking peaks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity87 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 6 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: No discrete threats to follow yet, but looks like we should have a period with a more favorable pattern coming up. That could change (the no discrete threat part) in short notice though with all the short waves flying around. I wouldn’t mind some clippers with some enhancement off the still relatively warm lakes as appetizers for some bigger storms later in the month either. I do think we enter a period where misses South / East are more likely when blocking peaks. I would love some lake effect days. Those random whiteouts are always some of the best. Felt like we had none at all last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 22 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: No discrete threats to follow yet, but looks like we should have a period with a more favorable pattern coming up. That could change (the no discrete threat part) in short notice though with all the short waves flying around. I wouldn’t mind some clippers with some enhancement off the still relatively warm lakes as appetizers for some bigger storms later in the month either. I do think we enter a period where misses South / East are more likely when blocking peaks. Yes after this week it looks like we get some northwest flow systems with colder air coming into play. I wouldn't mind seeing a few clipper systems come down. Sometimes those 2-4 systems with all cold air work well for us. It's seems like a couple years since we've seen them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 This is just a weird pattern. There's no variety. The temperatures are nearly the same everyday (and not extreme in anyway), and cloudy with almost no precip. Just seems weird to be so extended like this in the winter. Getting bored, need some snow soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Yea kinda funny that we finally get some blocking and there is no moisture anywhere to be found. But as others have stated we may be moving into a pattern where some northern stream threats pop up in the short range unexpectedly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 People in the Central forum are talking about a storm around the 13th. Doesn't look terrible, maybe a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 4 hours ago, Ahoff said: People in the Central forum are talking about a storm around the 13th. Doesn't look terrible, maybe a few inches. It looks like this storm is going to stay south and go out to sea as well. Northwest Flow next weekend might be our first return to any potential snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Looking at the long range models, looks bleak. Not all that warm, but just no precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutnOakmont Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I saw this story today about arctic air being "on the move". It'll be interesting to see if it has any impact on us. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/01/05/polar-vortex-split-cold-snow/?outputType=amp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 21 hours ago, north pgh said: It looks like this storm is going to stay south and go out to sea as well. Northwest Flow next weekend might be our first return to any potential snow. Agree, Still some chance we could see minimal precipitation Tuesday but more like the confluence rips it apart. Seems pretty likely we twiddle our thumbs for another week. Glad Winter came in like a lion with a big December or wasting these first two weeks of January would be more frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 51 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Agree, Still some chance we could see minimal precipitation Tuesday but more like the confluence rips it apart. Seems pretty likely we twiddle our thumbs for another week. Glad Winter came in like a lion with a big December or wasting these first two weeks of January would be more frustrating. If the GFS holds true the week ending January 24th we are going to be getting some extreme cold. Single digit nights to upper teens lower 20s daily. Probably no big storms with that pattern but some potential clippers and lake effect in Northwest flow if it materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 33 minutes ago, north pgh said: If the GFS holds true the week ending January 24th we are going to be getting some extreme cold. Single digit nights to upper teens lower 20s daily. Probably no big storms with that pattern but some potential clippers and lake effect in Northwest flow if it materializes. Really all we need are lake snows and clippers, those get the job done nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 21 hours ago, north pgh said: If the GFS holds true the week ending January 24th we are going to be getting some extreme cold. Single digit nights to upper teens lower 20s daily. Probably no big storms with that pattern but some potential clippers and lake effect in Northwest flow if it materializes. Color me skeptical right now, I don't doubt we get colder and have a brief period of NW flow "events" but we are getting to the point in the season where typical Nina response (Western trough, SE Ridge) conflicts with big cold in the East. Maybe the SSW reshuffles the deck so to speak or provides a resurgence of blocking but I'd bet the big cold look is muted as we get closer in time. If we keep the blocking it would probably setup a gradient type pattern with storms riding along the gradient as it wobbles N to South coinciding with -NAO / SE Ridge strength. Maybe some overrunning WAA type storms. This would probably be more towards the end of the month and if it sets up to far north of your desired location it's a warm wet / cold dry type of setup. One could argue we haven't really had the typically expected Enso response in the past few years due to other factors so the entire base for my argument may be moot anyways. Just throwing some gueses out there right now to stir debate since we will be quiet weatherwise for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 9, 2021 Author Share Posted January 9, 2021 2 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Color me skeptical right now, I don't doubt we get colder and have a brief period of NW flow "events" but we are getting to the point in the season where typical Nina response (Western trough, SE Ridge) conflicts with big cold in the East. Maybe the SSW reshuffles the deck so to speak or provides a resurgence of blocking but I'd bet the big cold look is muted as we get closer in time. If we keep the blocking it would probably setup a gradient type pattern with storms riding along the gradient as it wobbles N to South coinciding with -NAO / SE Ridge strength. Maybe some overrunning WAA type storms. This would probably be more towards the end of the month and if it sets up to far north of your desired location it's a warm wet / cold dry type of setup. One could argue we haven't really had the typically expected Enso response in the past few years due to other factors so the entire base for my argument may be moot anyways. Just throwing some gueses out there right now to stir debate since we will be quiet weatherwise for a bit. Yes the bitter cold keeps coming down and then retreating but models are now starting to get more stormy. We may have some good storms to track because the cold will pretty much be and place and reinforcing itself after each storm goes by. It looks like Minnesota may have several weeks below zero or close to it second half of January. I have to remember that the last couple of years the models aren't very reliable after 5 days and will go back and forth with storm and no storm. I think we will have things to track starting next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 2 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Color me skeptical right now, I don't doubt we get colder and have a brief period of NW flow "events" but we are getting to the point in the season where typical Nina response (Western trough, SE Ridge) conflicts with big cold in the East. Maybe the SSW reshuffles the deck so to speak or provides a resurgence of blocking but I'd bet the big cold look is muted as we get closer in time. If we keep the blocking it would probably setup a gradient type pattern with storms riding along the gradient as it wobbles N to South coinciding with -NAO / SE Ridge strength. Maybe some overrunning WAA type storms. This would probably be more towards the end of the month and if it sets up to far north of your desired location it's a warm wet / cold dry type of setup. One could argue we haven't really had the typically expected Enso response in the past few years due to other factors so the entire base for my argument may be moot anyways. Just throwing some gueses out there right now to stir debate since we will be quiet weatherwise for a bit. Isn't this Nina weakening though, kind of throwing the typical Nina set up out the window a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 3 hours ago, Ahoff said: Isn't this Nina weakening though, kind of throwing the typical Nina set up out the window a bit? It is, but there is some lag from peak with respect to influence in the atmosphere. I'm not sure there is a way anyone knows for sure what that lag time is as it's going to be tied to other seasonal variables that may or may not constructively interfere. There seems to be 2 school s of thought as I read people who are way more qualified to analyze these things, one is La Nina influence takes over and the easy is warmer the other is the typical lag effects from the SSW hit in Feb and we get blocking and a colder outcome. That all being said, as we get into this upcoming weekend through rest of January all models generally agree on a more active pattern setting in conducive for snow. Edit: psuhoffman has a good post (as usual) on page 39 in the mid atlantic thread illustrating the possible gradient pattern I was talking about earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Historical analysis over thirty years - 2005-'06 was the last lean year after a strong December showing: 5.5" in January, 9.7" in February, and 1.4" in March. Most of the time with an above-average December we get at least one more above-average month, but two or even three is much more common. There's a 27-31% chance, give or take, we end winter on a down note and "below normal." If January busts out (below average and/or less than December), our odds increase to a ~67% chance for a below normal rest of winter. The most unusual exception was 1992-'93 - I think we can all see the relevance of that year. January brought only 2.1", but February and March combined for over 52" (18.5" and 34.1" respectively). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 It is amazing how boring January has been for tracking snow. Looks like we might see some snow showers around Friday/Saturday but temperatures are looking marginal so I doubt much stickage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 I keep thinking how many times we have said in the past that we would trade in a ton of nickle and dime snows for a few good thumps a year. Looks like we got our wish :-) While I do prefer thatI am starting to miss snow and our usual cadence of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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