Burghblizz Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Adjusting my call. 2-4 as the last minute model shift to the East happens. Easy man...it only shaved a couple inches off and these off hour runs can be lighter. Tracks looked almost identical. Let’s see how things are after tonight. That’s the final model exam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 17 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Adjusting my call. 2-4 as the last minute model shift to the East happens. Yea put away your shovel tomorrow, nothing to see here you are only getting 2" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Gfs has been playing catch up the whole time. At this point I’m looking elsewhere at mesos and euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Still snowing too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 How often do you really get a significant storm for the entire state? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I’m still liking where we sit with this one. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Yeah, the 18Z GFS wasn't great, pretty much a "worst case" for us (only drops 3-6" in Allegheny, which would be a bust of sorts). However, keep in mind this storm will be heavily dependent on mesoscale features like banding, and that is not in the GFS' wheelhouse. The GFS has one major band and puts Pittsburgh under nothing but subsidence. That's still a possible scenario, no doubt, but I think you have to resolve those features using other higher-resolution models plus forecasting. On a 1 to 10 scale of bust potential, this storm is probably a 7 or 8. But because of that, it could also overperform, so there's good and bad. Unfortunately, there's also some unknown that comes with it. I still think our absolute max potential is 14" with a low probability (say 10%) while 4" is the floor. I'm good with anything over 3" in mid December, and we've already done it once! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 It got quiet in here, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ahoff said: It got quiet in here, lol. Yea I don’t know why...GFS still has us anywhere from like 7-12”.....it’s pretty much the same and it’s inside 24 hours-now casting time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Euro still looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Euro still looks good. Smokes Westmoreland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Burghblizz said: Smokes Westmoreland Still looks good to me. If it overperforms then maybe we get 12 or 14 but are we gonna be upset with we get like 8 or 10??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Up over 10” is definitely a win. The mesos are looking pretty dang good too, HRRR might be a tab warm but still not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Rd9108 said: Still looks good to me. If it overperforms then maybe we get 12 or 14 but are we gonna be upset with we get like 8 or 10??? I'm great with 6-10....the 18z NAM and GFS though make me think that a SE correction is coming and we end up more 2-4 or 3-6. A 50 mile shift east would kill us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: I'm great with 6-10....the 18z NAM and GFS though make me think that a SE correction is coming and we end up more 2-4 or 3-6. A 50 mile shift east would kill us. Settle the 18z euro is still good. Let's see what the NAM brings. Let's be honest even the globals become more and more worthless as nowcasting time begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Rd9108 said: Settle the 18z euro is still good. Let's see what the NAM brings. Let's be honest even the globals become more and more worthless as nowcasting time begins. Yeah, it is still good, but is also a fairly sizable shift east, or at least cuts back on the westward extent of good totals. Point is, we have seen this song and dance probably hundreds of times where in the last 24 hours we go from being modeled for a nice WSW level event to an advisory event or worse. It is our climo that it is just very hard to get a significant accumulation in a setup like this for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 hours ago, Mailman said: 18z NAM: Here is 12z for comparison. Hopefully the 0z runs stop showing a correction, or push back a bit further west but if it shifts any further east we are in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Seriously the storm hasn't even started yet and you are complaining. We've seen storms bust high and bust low it happens. Stop getting emotional over every model run for your own sanity and enjoy whatever falls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 23 minutes ago, Ahoff said: It got quiet in here, lol. I think everyone is taking a breather/dinner. Tomorrow will hopefully be a fun day of nowcasting and obs. At least I am. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: Seriously the storm hasn't even started yet and you are complaining. We've seen storms bust high and bust low it happens. Stop getting emotional over every model run for your own sanity and enjoy whatever falls. We will see, but in general it has been busting low. Our last WSW was that January 2019 storm....it rained all day and didn't snow till about 2AM when we got 2 inches I think. Sorry, given our recent history I am less than confident until the event actually starts. Like I said, we will see what happens with the 0z run models...truly hope that they don't shift any further east or we are looking at a 2-4 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: We will see, but in general it has been busting low. Our last WSW was that January 2019 storm....it rained all day and didn't snow till about 2AM when we got 2 inches I think. Sorry, given our recent history I am less than confident until the event actually starts. Like I said, we will see what happens with the 0z run models...truly hope that they don't shift any further east or we are looking at a 2-4 event. Wasn’t that a different type of storm though? More of an overrunning event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Ahoff said: Wasn’t that a different type of storm though? More of an overrunning event? It was, yes. That was a whole different set of things that screwed us over on that one. We generally get screwed on these ones too....think January 2016 where you drove 50 miles south and east of Pittsburgh they had nearly 2 feet and I got 4 or 5 inches just north of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 48 minutes ago, Ahoff said: It got quiet in here, lol. I'm busy pouring blood over my snow idol statue, conducting a seance to conjur the snow gods and various other paranormal rituals of the ocult to give me temporary control over mother nature to keep any east trends at bay. 21 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: I think everyone is taking a breather/dinner. Tomorrow will hopefully be a fun day of nowcasting and obs. At least I am. Oh yeah.. I mean me too.. just eating some dinner. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 43 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: It was, yes. That was a whole different set of things that screwed us over on that one. We generally get screwed on these ones too....think January 2016 where you drove 50 miles south and east of Pittsburgh they had nearly 2 feet and I got 4 or 5 inches just north of the city. It’s easy to be negative with our climo but honestly I feel like this storm is one of the perfect types to not give us a huge bust. No worries on mixing, not riding the northern edge and not waiting for a changeover. I think we’re in for a solid storm, doubt we jackpot but I don’t think we’ll be disappointed either. I think 6-12 is in play across Allegheny country. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 0z HRRR is 8-10" for KPIT 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 0z NAM once again trending the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: 0z NAM once again trending the wrong way. Cry some more it will help. I'm done commenting on this storm. Your whininess is insufferable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Cry some more it will help. I'm done commenting on this storm. Your whininess is insufferable. Then block me? It doesn’t change the fact that each of the last few runs have trended towards us being fringed. Yeah, the end result is still decent with about .8 qpf in the area, but that is half of where we were at 12z a s the NAM is notorious for putting out over the top qpf numbers...and that gradient keeps moving further and further East. I am not trolling, but I’m really thinking this ends up as a 2-4 or 3-6 event which would really be a letdown after every model trended towards a 6-12 inch event yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Seems to me it is just falling in line with the other guidance finally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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