Ahoff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 10 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: 12z NAM SMOKES us. You're not kidding. Isn't NAM getting near it's wheelhouse? SREF Plumes are at 8.25" mean! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ahoff said: You're not kidding. Isn't NAM getting near it's wheelhouse? It is, but at the same time we’ve seen the NAM do this plenty of times. Verbatim though it approaches 2/5-2/6 2010 level totals, but in reality probably about an 8-12 type event given the NAM’s propensity to spit out high QPF. If the GFS makes a move towards it though it is game on as the euro is hinting at the same sort of trend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I'm getting excited, and I know I shouldn't, lol! I'm still realistic, but the possibility is interesting. I'm overall still sticking with 2-4". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 The NAM moved a little east from 6z and still threw a ton of precip back into western PA. Definitely encouraging to see the NAM and EURO a little more bullish on our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Ining No complaining if this happens for atleaat a year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 wouldn't mind that band setting up over the area for a while. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 So at this point EURO and NAM vs GFS/Canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, dj3 said: So at this point EURO and NAM vs GFS/Canadian? If they both move NW then its game on. I just feel like we will get a south east trend last minute or maybe we get a 2010 miracle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 One thing that is refreshing is not really having to worry about mixing issues. I know it's not that kind of storm, but still. Also, has the energy been sampled yet by the models? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ahoff said: One thing that is refreshing is not really having to worry about mixing issues. I know it's not that kind of storm, but still. Also, has the energy been sampled yet by the models? First one with true samplings is probably 00z tonight. Just speculating though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Got to love it...NAM gives near 20...GFS like 4. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Mailman said: If Euro caves then it is over but I still think MAG had the right idea with high end advisory/low end warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Mailman said: That would be insanely brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 How's the GFS been lately? At least it's not the most reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Let’s pray the NAM is the correct model-lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: Let’s pray the NAM is the correct model-lol If i had an inch of snow for every time i've said this sentence. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 RGEM 12z moved east. There is no way the NAM is correct. Id bet that the European will correct back southeast in the next two runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Although the snow maps didn't change much on the GFS, the 12z low placement does look further west so I think it is actually a step in the right direction. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: RGEM 12z moved east. There is no way the NAM is correct. Id bet that the European will correct back southeast in the next two runs. Honestly, that 12z run of the RGEM is better than the previous 00z and 6z The position of the energy and the low is further west. The precip shield isn't as impressive, but im not too worries about that. Keep watching the energy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, dj3 said: Although the snow maps didn't change much on the GFS, the 12z low placement does look further west so I think it is actually a step in the right direction. I believe I'm squatting right now so can't look at it fully but the low is deeper too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Honestly, that 12z run of the RGEM is better than the previous 00z and 6z The position of the energy and the low is further west. The precip shield isn't as impressive, but im not too worries about that. Keep watching the energy I jumped to the snow maps without looking at the H5. Thats good news if the H5 improved. I'm hearing the GEFS moved slightly north too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Not speaking specifically to this sub forum, but feels like there will be a lot of disappointment across the board with this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Mailman said: Not speaking specifically to this sub forum, but feels like there will be a lot of disappointment across the board with this one. Hopefully, we'll all be pleasantly surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I've seen the NAM overamped before, but this is taking it to another level. It is on its own so really it can't be trusted, especially with the GFS and Euro being as relatively consistent as they've been. I do think the GFS will jog a bit more northwest before the event. Enough to save a fringe job? I don't know. 3-6" might be a fine "catch all" and if it overperforms, so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Mailman said: Not speaking specifically to this sub forum, but feels like there will be a lot of disappointment across the board with this one. I honestly think central pa will really be the only area that does really well. Dc, philly, and nyc I think are going to be very unhappy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Canadian has cut our totals in half from 0z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Mailman said: Canadian has cut our totals in half from 0z. The fat lady is warming up for us...not that we didn’t expect it as we’ve seen this song and dance about 50 times the last ten years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: The fat lady is warming up for us...not that we didn’t expect it as we’ve seen this song and dance about 50 times the last ten years. If the Euro trends at all south east ill jump off the train. Let's wait and see what it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Hopefully the EURO and NAM aren't over-doing QPF amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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