December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.

[PowellVolz]

At 42 the 12z CMC is south and east of its 0z run and slight weaker.  Last comment on that model so as not to gum up the thread...trend south and east with it as well. 

I must be missing something... you don’t seem to like further SE with the system but I thought we were tracking an Apps runner? Wouldn’t SE trends be good? Wouldn’t a later phase allow more cold into ETn?


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[Carvers Gap]

8 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Here is where it looks like the front is on the latest SPC mesoscale analysis's windbarbs: 

Looks to me like that from is far enough south that it is causing a later phase.  I always hold out hope(no matter how unfounded!) that he slp gets further east and pulls due north.  Those traditionally are pretty good storms.  Also of note, many of the models are popping a low now over Delmarva pretty consistently which is a pretty good sign of a strong storm.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, PowellVolz said:

I must be missing something... you don’t seem to like further SE with the system but I thought we were tracking an Apps runner? Wouldn’t SE trends be good? Wouldn’t a later phase allow more cold into ETn?


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Definitely like it!

[Kentucky]

per always, thanks for the great analysis @Holston_River_Rambler @Carvers Gap 

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Kentucky said:

per always, thanks for the great analysis @Holston_River_Rambler @Carvers Gap 

No problem!  The 12z CMC really upped your totals in Corbin.  Been interesting to watch.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z Ukie might be a good test for the front theory. Looks like it is already pressing it further south on this run compared to 0z. Only out to 12 hours for now. 

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

I'm still thinking Middle Tennessee, namely the areas not on the Plateau, is not out of the game. Perhaps all Nashville will see is some bands of snow showers without any accumulation, due to its elevation and the UHI effect, but it'll be interesting to see if some spots along the Highland Rim can pick up some minor snowfall.

Agree.  Storms like this wobble quite (with each run) a bit due to the phase being tough to model (timing and placement).  The envelope right now, though trending slightly eastward, doesn't leave middle TN out of the game at all.  I do think places like Monterey might be sitting pretty nice.  For MBY, definitely hoping for an eastward jog...for yours I will be happy to see it jog back west.  Hoping we can get accumulating snow in the forum area to start the season. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

It's popping a low pretty far south in the Gulf 1013 mb SE of Brownsville as compared to 1012 off the coast of Corpus Christi at 0z

[John1122]

10 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

I'm still thinking Middle Tennessee, namely the areas not on the Plateau, is not out of the game. Perhaps all Nashville will see is some bands of snow showers without any accumulation, due to its elevation and the UHI effect, but perhaps some spots along the Highland Rim can pick up some minor snowfall.

Middle Tennessee has looked better than most areas of the state that aren't mountainous throughout. You don't have to deal with any downsloping really like the eastern valley areas.

[Carvers Gap]

9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

12z Ukie might be a good test for the front theory. Looks like it is already pressing it further south on this run compared to 0z. Only out to 12 hours for now. 

The UKMET at meteocentre looks slightly east.  Biggest thing I notice is that the slp along the GOM is east on many of the models in the 12z suite.  Some go the Miller A route while some lift due north.  UKMET looks like it sent party of its low east of the Apps before heading straight to TRI form east central Alabama.  Wrap around is wicked with the UKMET.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

The UKMET at meteocentre looks slightly east.

Yeah, I'm only out to 30 hours or so, and it is definitely SE some. Will post the gif when it finishes on F5 weather. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Ukie also has that SLP reflection off the GA coast to pull on the Gulf low some, hopefully a good sign that a global sees that too. 

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Yeah, I'm only out to 30 hours or so, and it is definitely SE some. Will post the gif when it finishes on F5 weather. 

Check out meteocentre.  Not as good as yours, but gives you a heads-up.  Will be interested to see the smaller time increments on the gif.   

[Carvers Gap]

Hour 192 snow accumulations on the CMC at Tropical Tidbits.  This is from TWO systems...

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here's the Ukie SLP gif. The gif jumps north at the end because the SLP drops off the SE sector view:

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Check out the streamer off of Lake Michigan on the UKMET, aimed right at Frozen Head

 

[John1122]

 

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Check out the streamer off of Lake Michigan on the UKMET, aimed right at Frozen Head

 

I got under one of those one night and got 6 inches of snow in 3 hours with a temp in the lower 20s.

[John1122]

UKMet temperatures during that band Holston posted. It's easy to spot the Plateau/Mountains on it. Being 32 or below would aid immensely for any of us hoping for accumulating snow in this kind of warm ground set up.

 

[Daniel Boone]

38 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Hour 192 snow accumulations on the CMC at Tropical Tidbits.  This is from TWO systems...

 This is the one we're rooting for Carvers. CMC actually did better here the last couple seasons than the others a few times.

[Olhausen]

1 hour ago, Blue Moon said:

I'm still thinking Middle Tennessee, namely the areas not on the Plateau, is not out of the game. Perhaps all Nashville will see is some bands of snow showers without any accumulation, due to its elevation and the UHI effect, but perhaps some spots along the Highland Rim can pick up some minor snowfall.

The latest nam12k run seems to suggest up here on the highland rim we could see some accumulating snow. Although some of the heaviest bands seem to be when temps are still above freezing. I always wonder if it’s still possible to get a surprise snow like the 2003 storm that dropped 7 inches on Nashville? I know the models are much better now so maybe not. I was not living here until 2006 but have never had a huge over achiever like the 2003 storm. It seems like overachievers are more likely in the elevated areas of eastern Tennessee.

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro is east of its 0z run...sometimes well east.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

We might really not want that trend to continue at that increment...that is how much it moved.

[Carvers Gap]

That 12z run of the Euro...just want it to nudge just a bit more east of the Apps where it can consolidate (if you live in the E TN valley....stay where it is if in middle TN).  The Apps disrupted the system quite a bit with that shift.  There are times it shifts roughly 200 miles east.  Problem is the slp gets disorganized so sometimes a shift is just a result of about three different low locations.

[Carvers Gap]

12z EPS shows the shift eastward.  There is a cluster of lows over central(east side of central) NC that wasn't on any of the three previous runs.  The 12z EPS is south and east of previous runs.  So, looks like the trend is just that(south and east) for the 12z suite.  Does that continue?  Maybe.  I think at some point things shift back NW after the eastward jog stops.  Will be interesting to see if the Euro does indeed end-up being too far to the west during the past few days.  

[Carvers Gap]

Second storm on the 12z GFS just a monster with 957mb off Bar Harbor.  (saw the mention in the MA thread and thought...no way....well, way)

[Holston_River_Rambler]

18z NAM is west again, but shows some change over in Middle TN toward Monday early AM

 

[Carvers Gap]

23 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

18z NAM is west again, but shows some change over in Middle TN toward Monday early AM

 

So is the NAM the furtherest West solution now?   Going to be a good upslope event.  MRX has updated their afternoon disco and has a prelim snow map.  Elevation driven event for their forecast.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

So is the NAM the furtherest West solution now?

Looks like it, lol. 

18z RGEM is coming in further SE. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

18z RGEM plows the surface low right up the TN/ NC border.