December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, AMZ8990 said:

Great stuff as always.  Thanks for explaining. 

And just like that the GEFS and GEPS are back to a workable look at 12z.  LOL.

[jaxjagman]

Trough went through east Asia yesterday.AO looks like it's gonna tank the next few days ,PNA is meh, +ve, NAO -ve, seems very possible we end up with another  dynamical system once again upcoming towards the NEW year.Could be another trough towards the end of week one of Jan.,then the pattern could go zonal after that,but long range could always change.

[Carvers Gap]

On 12/15/2020 at 2:40 PM, Holston_River_Rambler said:

This time weathermodels had all snow too. 
 

The Euro OP straight nailed this from 9 days out.  LOL

[Carvers Gap]

Just digging back through this thread, the GFS and Euro almost nailed this from ten days out.  My big take away is that Arctic fronts bring good things(this year anyway) if they are real on modeling.  So, we can’t tuck that one away in case we see a similar setup again this winter, and I would guess we might.  

[jaxjagman]

7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Euro OP straight nailed this from 9 days out.  LOL

Could be another nice system for you guys in the east,if its right,.hard to tell when the thermals crash but looks at least 4"

[jaxjagman]

meant to put this in

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI LAT= 36.47 LON= -82.40 ELE= 1519 12Z DEC25 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 3/6 SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP HR LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) FRI 12Z 25-DEC -8.8 -15.4 125 0 27005 FRI 15Z 25-DEC -8.3 -15.9 125 0 27009 FRI 18Z 25-DEC -6.2 -14.9 126 0 27010 FRI 21Z 25-DEC -6.1 -14.4 126 0 27010 0.01 SAT 00Z 26-DEC -8.1 -15.7 125 0 28007 0.02 SAT 03Z 26-DEC -10.3 -17.1 124 0 28006 0.00 SAT 06Z 26-DEC -11.7 -13.4 124 0 26005 0.00 SAT 09Z 26-DEC -13.0 -9.8 124 0 23004 0.00 SAT 12Z 26-DEC -10.7 -6.4 125 17 23004 0.00 SAT 15Z 26-DEC -6.4 -4.1 127 0 24004 0.00 SAT 18Z 26-DEC -0.6 -4.3 129 78 24005 0.00 SAT 21Z 26-DEC 0.6 -3.0 130 6870 24004 0.00 SUN 00Z 27-DEC -3.4 -0.5 130 6582 23004 0.00 SUN 03Z 27-DEC -3.6 0.4 130 6321 18002 0.00 SUN 06Z 27-DEC -6.2 2.0 131 6209 15002 0.00 SUN 09Z 27-DEC -5.5 4.0 131 6719 17002 0.00 SUN 12Z 27-DEC -5.9 5.3 131 6812 12002 0.00 SUN 15Z 27-DEC 1.1 5.9 132 6883 14001 0.00 SUN 18Z 27-DEC 9.9 6.6 134 7237 21003 0.00 SUN 21Z 27-DEC 8.4 7.0 135 7575 27001 0.00 MON 00Z 28-DEC 1.1 6.4 134 7416 17005 0.00 MON 03Z 28-DEC 0.2 5.4 133 6902 16005 0.00 MON 06Z 28-DEC -0.3 4.2 133 5804 23002 0.00 MON 09Z 28-DEC -1.0 3.7 133 5411 34002 0.00 MON 12Z 28-DEC 1.7 2.0 132 4934 19003 0.01 MON 15Z 28-DEC 3.0 1.5 132 4398 23004 0.01 MON 18Z 28-DEC 5.5 0.2 132 4787 24007 0.02 MON 21Z 28-DEC 5.5 -1.0 132 4523 24004 0.00 TUE 00Z 29-DEC 2.7 -1.7 132 2572 28005 0.01 TUE 03Z 29-DEC -0.3 -1.5 130 1506 31005 0.00 TUE 06Z 29-DEC -2.7 -1.5 129 434 26001 0.00 TUE 09Z 29-DEC -3.4 -1.7 129 319 03003 0.00 TUE 12Z 29-DEC -3.3 -1.7 128 307 03004 0.00 TUE 15Z 29-DEC -1.9 -0.7 129 5288 05003 0.00 TUE 18Z 29-DEC 2.8 0.3 130 5869 04002 0.00 TUE 21Z 29-DEC 3.7 1.7 131 6028 05001 0.00 WED 00Z 30-DEC -0.8 3.0 131 6632 05005 0.00 WED 03Z 30-DEC -1.7 4.7 132 7493 10004 0.00 WED 06Z 30-DEC -2.0 5.4 132 7426 09004 0.00 WED 09Z 30-DEC -1.8 6.2 131 8577 11005 0.00 WED 12Z 30-DEC -1.7 6.0 131 9387 12006 0.00 WED 15Z 30-DEC 2.3 5.0 131 9766 14006 0.00 WED 18Z 30-DEC 6.8 4.4 132 9476 14009 0.00 WED 21Z 30-DEC 6.7 6.7 133 9652 13008 0.00 THU 00Z 31-DEC 4.0 7.0 133 9655 12005 0.00 THU 03Z 31-DEC 4.0 6.5 133 10431 13007 0.00 THU 06Z 31-DEC 7.0 6.9 134 10769 15008 0.01 THU 09Z 31-DEC 8.0 6.6 134 10382 15011 0.01 THU 12Z 31-DEC 8.6 7.9 135 8792 14011 0.01 THU 18Z 31-DEC 12.7 9.8 137 8515 16013 0.11 FRI 00Z 01-JAN 3.1 0.0 131 5517 27006 1.24 FRI 06Z 01-JAN -0.8 -7.4 129 29 28008 0.41 FRI 12Z 01-JAN -5.4 -10.5 127 0 24004 0.00 FRI 18Z 01-JAN -1.4 -10.5 128 0 28008 0.00 SAT 00Z 02-JAN -3.5 -7.4 128 0 26005 0.00 SAT 06Z 02-JAN -6.7 -4.6 128 68 18003 0.00 SAT 12Z 02-JAN -7.2 1.3 129 5540 05002 0.00 SAT 18Z 02-JAN 3.1 2.8 132 5080 36002 0.00 SUN 00Z 03-JAN -0.3 3.0 132 4900 10002 0.00 SUN 06Z 03-JAN -2.5 -0.9 130 2114 15001 0.00 SUN 12Z 03-JAN -2.4 -3.0 130 650 13002 0.00 SUN 18Z 03-JAN 5.8 -1.9 131 1752 32001 0.00 MON 00Z 04-JAN 1.5 -0.5 132 2845 10001 0.00 MON 06Z 04-JAN -2.6 1.1 132 6059 11004 0.00 MON 12Z 04-JAN -2.6 0.6 131 5177 12004 0.00

[Carvers Gap]

33 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

meant to put this in

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI LAT= 36.47 LON= -82.40 ELE= 1519 12Z DEC25 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 3/6 SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP HR LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) FRI 12Z 25-DEC -8.8 -15.4 125 0 27005 FRI 15Z 25-DEC -8.3 -15.9 125 0 27009 FRI 18Z 25-DEC -6.2 -14.9 126 0 27010 FRI 21Z 25-DEC -6.1 -14.4 126 0 27010 0.01 SAT 00Z 26-DEC -8.1 -15.7 125 0 28007 0.02 SAT 03Z 26-DEC -10.3 -17.1 124 0 28006 0.00 SAT 06Z 26-DEC -11.7 -13.4 124 0 26005 0.00 SAT 09Z 26-DEC -13.0 -9.8 124 0 23004 0.00 SAT 12Z 26-DEC -10.7 -6.4 125 17 23004 0.00 SAT 15Z 26-DEC -6.4 -4.1 127 0 24004 0.00 SAT 18Z 26-DEC -0.6 -4.3 129 78 24005 0.00 SAT 21Z 26-DEC 0.6 -3.0 130 6870 24004 0.00 SUN 00Z 27-DEC -3.4 -0.5 130 6582 23004 0.00 SUN 03Z 27-DEC -3.6 0.4 130 6321 18002 0.00 SUN 06Z 27-DEC -6.2 2.0 131 6209 15002 0.00 SUN 09Z 27-DEC -5.5 4.0 131 6719 17002 0.00 SUN 12Z 27-DEC -5.9 5.3 131 6812 12002 0.00 SUN 15Z 27-DEC 1.1 5.9 132 6883 14001 0.00 SUN 18Z 27-DEC 9.9 6.6 134 7237 21003 0.00 SUN 21Z 27-DEC 8.4 7.0 135 7575 27001 0.00 MON 00Z 28-DEC 1.1 6.4 134 7416 17005 0.00 MON 03Z 28-DEC 0.2 5.4 133 6902 16005 0.00 MON 06Z 28-DEC -0.3 4.2 133 5804 23002 0.00 MON 09Z 28-DEC -1.0 3.7 133 5411 34002 0.00 MON 12Z 28-DEC 1.7 2.0 132 4934 19003 0.01 MON 15Z 28-DEC 3.0 1.5 132 4398 23004 0.01 MON 18Z 28-DEC 5.5 0.2 132 4787 24007 0.02 MON 21Z 28-DEC 5.5 -1.0 132 4523 24004 0.00 TUE 00Z 29-DEC 2.7 -1.7 132 2572 28005 0.01 TUE 03Z 29-DEC -0.3 -1.5 130 1506 31005 0.00 TUE 06Z 29-DEC -2.7 -1.5 129 434 26001 0.00 TUE 09Z 29-DEC -3.4 -1.7 129 319 03003 0.00 TUE 12Z 29-DEC -3.3 -1.7 128 307 03004 0.00 TUE 15Z 29-DEC -1.9 -0.7 129 5288 05003 0.00 TUE 18Z 29-DEC 2.8 0.3 130 5869 04002 0.00 TUE 21Z 29-DEC 3.7 1.7 131 6028 05001 0.00 WED 00Z 30-DEC -0.8 3.0 131 6632 05005 0.00 WED 03Z 30-DEC -1.7 4.7 132 7493 10004 0.00 WED 06Z 30-DEC -2.0 5.4 132 7426 09004 0.00 WED 09Z 30-DEC -1.8 6.2 131 8577 11005 0.00 WED 12Z 30-DEC -1.7 6.0 131 9387 12006 0.00 WED 15Z 30-DEC 2.3 5.0 131 9766 14006 0.00 WED 18Z 30-DEC 6.8 4.4 132 9476 14009 0.00 WED 21Z 30-DEC 6.7 6.7 133 9652 13008 0.00 THU 00Z 31-DEC 4.0 7.0 133 9655 12005 0.00 THU 03Z 31-DEC 4.0 6.5 133 10431 13007 0.00 THU 06Z 31-DEC 7.0 6.9 134 10769 15008 0.01 THU 09Z 31-DEC 8.0 6.6 134 10382 15011 0.01 THU 12Z 31-DEC 8.6 7.9 135 8792 14011 0.01 THU 18Z 31-DEC 12.7 9.8 137 8515 16013 0.11 FRI 00Z 01-JAN 3.1 0.0 131 5517 27006 1.24 FRI 06Z 01-JAN -0.8 -7.4 129 29 28008 0.41 FRI 12Z 01-JAN -5.4 -10.5 127 0 24004 0.00 FRI 18Z 01-JAN -1.4 -10.5 128 0 28008 0.00 SAT 00Z 02-JAN -3.5 -7.4 128 0 26005 0.00 SAT 06Z 02-JAN -6.7 -4.6 128 68 18003 0.00 SAT 12Z 02-JAN -7.2 1.3 129 5540 05002 0.00 SAT 18Z 02-JAN 3.1 2.8 132 5080 36002 0.00 SUN 00Z 03-JAN -0.3 3.0 132 4900 10002 0.00 SUN 06Z 03-JAN -2.5 -0.9 130 2114 15001 0.00 SUN 12Z 03-JAN -2.4 -3.0 130 650 13002 0.00 SUN 18Z 03-JAN 5.8 -1.9 131 1752 32001 0.00 MON 00Z 04-JAN 1.5 -0.5 132 2845 10001 0.00 MON 06Z 04-JAN -2.6 1.1 132 6059 11004 0.00 MON 12Z 04-JAN -2.6 0.6 131 5177 12004 0.00

Definitely an interesting time for sure.  Thanks for the data.  Yeah, it looks almost like the same set-up.  Would be the third one this month of that type - old school right there.  Used to happen way back...not as much these days.  I wonder with the -NAO if it is slowing systems down enough that the cold catches the precip...have to think it has something to do with the block.  

[jaxjagman]

I am getting interested in the storm into the end of the first week of Jan,if its real

 

There has been some wild swings in the SOI lately around the 20th.

 

30 day Av. SOI 

90 day Av. SOI 

Daily contribution 

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
25 Dec 2020	1012.01	1007.35	4.88	15.20	9.50
24 Dec 2020	1010.81	1006.15	4.88	15.22	9.62
23 Dec 2020	1010.84	1004.25	14.89	15.16	9.75
22 Dec 2020	1012.31	1004.30	22.26	14.40	9.75
21 Dec 2020	1012.84	1005.05	21.12	13.41	9.58
20 Dec 2020	1011.45	1005.80	10.02	12.80	9.49
19 Dec 2020	1012.11	1002.50	30.57	13.03	9.54
18 Dec 2020	1012.34	1002.05	34.10	12.68	9.35
17 Dec 2020	1013.64	1003.35	34.10	12.22	9.08
16 Dec 2020	1013.54	1004.30	28.65	11.67	8.85
15 Dec 2020	1013.95	1006.40	19.88	11.09	8.73

 

 

Also look at the GWO today,which is out of the COD,but this could change drastically upcoming.But the GAAM drops during this time

 

Not sure if this is severe or cold,.I believe tho this system is going to be much stronger than shown right now.JMO

[jaxjagman]

Just to add on above you can see a ridge build up into Korea and Japan,then a trough coming through.Teleconnections has a -ve AO/NAO,but the PNA is uncertain right now

 

[jaxjagman]

[John1122]

She's still showing up 6 days out. 

[John1122]

Canadian is a cutter, Euro/GFS are very close to the system we just had. Let's see if it sticks around. The system yesterday was constant for a week. 

[jaxjagman]

GFS is hinting at the possible SSWE  talked about above into the 2nd week of Jan,It hasnt been showing this recently and the GEFS still says no

 

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

Nice trough on the Euro with the ULL in the MO/Valley.Potentially with some shortwaves riding along it.Tho to early to early to trust right now

[jaxjagman]

On 12/25/2020 at 3:41 PM, jaxjagman said:

Trough went through east Asia yesterday.AO looks like it's gonna tank the next few days ,PNA is meh, +ve, NAO -ve, seems very possible we end up with another  dynamical system once again upcoming towards the NEW year.Could be another trough towards the end of week one of Jan.,then the pattern could go zonal after that,but long range could always change.

Should watch this system.The AO looks to start tanking upcoming.Right now the cam looks like convection into the GOM in which would cut it off.Being it is a week away we'll still see changes.Right now it looks more like a slider coming through the Valley,

[Carvers Gap]

18 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Should watch this system.The AO looks to start tanking upcoming.Right now the cam looks like convection into the GOM in which would cut it off.Being it is a week away we'll still see changes.Right now it looks more like a slider coming through the Valley,

Agree.  Sneaky little system with a HP over the top.  If it trends a bit more south...

[jaxjagman]

19 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Agree.  Sneaky little system with a HP over the top.  If it trends a bit more south...

Looks like a bowling ball today,with some shortwave into the GOM.But we know the drill 7-days away