December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.

jaxjagman · December 19, 2020

7 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

I know that our focus is the snow but check out the 2m Temp anomaly on Tropical Tidbits from the 12z GFS. Wild watching the cold front plow thru the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast states. One thing seems to be guaranteed is that this is a potent cold shot.

12z GFS was a fun run in general. Plenty of opportunities to track on that run after Christmas storm.

No doubt

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z DEC19   * - APPROXIMATED
                 SFC     SFC     2 M     SFC     SFC     SFC    6 HR    TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    PCP     QPF    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (PCT)
SAT 12Z 19-DEC                  34.2    27.2    18006                           
SAT 18Z 19-DEC  43.2    34.0    42.9    31.8    19008           0.00     100    
SUN 00Z 20-DEC  45.0    41.9    41.9    36.1    20003     RA    0.02     100    
SUN 06Z 20-DEC  42.6    41.2    41.8    39.7    20006     RA    0.18     100    
SUN 12Z 20-DEC  42.2    41.5    42.0    40.7    19004           0.03      99    
SUN 18Z 20-DEC  48.5    42.0    48.4    44.1    24003           0.00      95    
MON 00Z 21-DEC  48.9    42.1    42.1    40.1    23002           0.00      62    
MON 06Z 21-DEC  42.1    38.3    38.3    36.9    23005           0.00       9    
MON 12Z 21-DEC  39.3    37.4    38.7    37.5    23007           0.00      29    
MON 18Z 21-DEC  51.8    38.1    51.8    36.3    25013           0.00      25    
TUE 00Z 22-DEC  52.5    44.8    44.8    38.7    25007           0.00       0    
TUE 06Z 22-DEC  44.7    40.2    40.2    32.2    28005           0.00       0    
TUE 12Z 22-DEC  40.1    35.8    35.8    28.3    32004           0.00       0    
TUE 18Z 22-DEC  47.3    35.1    47.3    29.7    02002           0.00       0    
WED 00Z 23-DEC  49.1    40.8    40.8    30.8    13004           0.00       0    
WED 06Z 23-DEC  40.8    38.4    38.7    31.0    17006           0.00      40    
WED 12Z 23-DEC  41.1    38.7    41.1    31.0    17012           0.00      64    
WED 18Z 23-DEC  53.2    41.1    53.2    38.0    19017           0.00      48    
THU 00Z 24-DEC  54.7    50.5    50.5    43.9    18014     RA    0.05      82    
THU 06Z 24-DEC  51.0    35.5    35.6    34.4    32008     SN    0.80     100    
THU 12Z 24-DEC  35.7    28.5    29.0    23.0    29009           0.21      95    
THU 18Z 24-DEC  30.6    26.3    30.3    17.5    28014           0.00      38    
FRI 00Z 25-DEC  30.4    22.9    22.9    11.7    28009           0.01      88    
FRI 06Z 25-DEC  23.0    17.7    17.7     5.7    28011           0.00      93    
FRI 12Z 25-DEC  17.8    16.2    16.8     3.8    28009           0.00      91    
FRI 18Z 25-DEC  25.8    16.5    25.8     7.0    27007           0.00       5    
SAT 00Z 26-DEC  29.2    24.5    25.0    13.6    22005           0.00       0    
SAT 06Z 26-DEC  25.4    24.3    25.0    12.0    21006           0.00      10    
SAT 12Z 26-DEC  25.3    24.3    25.1    13.3    20006           0.00      33    
SAT 18Z 26-DEC  39.0    24.7    39.0    22.4    22007           0.00      81    
SUN 00Z 27-DEC  39.9    34.0    34.0    27.7    16005           0.00     100    
SUN 06Z 27-DEC  34.2    33.0    33.3    25.1    18003           0.00     100    
SUN 12Z 27-DEC  33.6    32.0    32.5    26.9    11005           0.00      98    
SUN 18Z 27-DEC  40.3    33.0    38.7    35.1    15006     RA    0.02     100    
MON 00Z 28-DEC  38.7    33.5    33.8    33.3    08004     RA    0.24     100    
MON 06Z 28-DEC  35.3    33.7    35.3    34.7    36004     RA    0.11     100    
MON 12Z 28-DEC  37.8    35.3    37.8    36.9    31007     RA    0.09     100    
MON 18Z 28-DEC  39.6    37.3    38.1    35.1    30011           0.01     100    
TUE 00Z 29-DEC  38.3    31.2    31.2    27.8    30011     SN    0.01      99    
TUE 06Z 29-DEC  31.1    24.3    24.3    16.7    30008           0.00      71    
TUE 12Z 29-DEC  24.2    22.1    22.1    13.0    31006           0.00       0    
TUE 18Z 29-DEC  33.1    22.0    33.1    10.0    30006           0.00       0    
WED 00Z 30-DEC  35.2    29.2    29.4    11.8    05000           0.00      25    
WED 06Z 30-DEC  30.1    28.1    29.2    14.5    16002           0.00      68    
WED 12Z 30-DEC  30.5    28.0    28.8    18.5    14006           0.01      99    
WED 18Z 30-DEC  33.6    28.9    31.8    26.9    18008     IP    0.10     100    
THU 00Z 31-DEC  33.8    30.4    33.8    33.0    17009     RA    0.16     100    
THU 06Z 31-DEC  36.6    33.8    36.5    36.4    19006           0.01     100    
THU 12Z 31-DEC  37.3    36.1    36.4    36.2    30005           0.01     100    
THU 18Z 31-DEC  36.4    34.1    35.7    32.9    30007     SN    0.00     100    
FRI 00Z 01-JAN  35.9    31.4    31.4    27.7    31006     SN    0.00     100    
FRI 06Z 01-JAN  31.4    25.2    25.2    22.2    31002           0.00      57    
FRI 12Z 01-JAN  25.2    22.9    23.3    20.8    13003           0.00       6    
FRI 18Z 01-JAN  35.2    23.8    35.2    26.8    14005           0.00     100    
SAT 00Z 02-JAN  37.3    34.0    34.6    29.1    15008           0.00     100    
SAT 06Z 02-JAN  36.8    34.5    36.6    29.9    17010     RA    0.01     100    
SAT 12Z 02-JAN  36.9    34.2    34.9    33.8    18010     RA    0.40     100    
SAT 18Z 02-JAN  37.2    34.3    36.6    35.7    24004     RA    0.22     100    
SUN 00Z 03-JAN  37.4    29.3    29.3    26.7    34004           0.01      86    
SUN 06Z 03-JAN  29.5    24.4    24.5    20.8    34004           0.00      16    
SUN 12Z 03-JAN  24.7    22.4    23.2    18.4    00006           0.00      49    
SUN 18Z 03-JAN  25.9    22.3    25.9    17.1    00007           0.00      98    
MON 00Z 04-JAN  27.3    20.9    20.9    13.7    00007           0.00      66    
MON 06Z 04-JAN  20.9    15.6    15.6     2.5    36007           0.00      42    
MON 12Z 04-JAN  15.5    12.1    12.1     0.2    00006           0.00      79

Holston_River_Rambler · December 19, 2020

Euro has more emphasis on the energy I circled in my post this AM:

Good Euro run I would say, for eastern areas.

tnweathernut · December 19, 2020

So is Dr No trying to turn into Dr Yes for once? 12z looks a lot better....

Holston_River_Rambler · December 19, 2020

BlunderStorm · December 19, 2020

3 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

So is Dr No trying to turn into Dr Yes for once? 12z looks a lot better....

Shhh... :snowman:

jaxjagman · December 19, 2020

Looks like the FZ heights crash fast,maybe a couple inches here.

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z DEC19
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
SAT 12Z 19-DEC   2.1     3.9     133    6348    18008                           
SAT 18Z 19-DEC   7.9     4.1     133    6720    18007                           
SUN 00Z 20-DEC   6.2     3.4     133    6534    18006           0.03            
SUN 06Z 20-DEC   5.0     0.5     132    4793    19004           0.27            
SUN 12Z 20-DEC   5.4     2.0     132    5253    19003           0.08            
SUN 18Z 20-DEC   8.5     1.1     132    5906    26003           0.01            
MON 00Z 21-DEC   4.9     0.9     132    4822    17002           0.01            
MON 06Z 21-DEC   2.7     1.5     132    4656    24004           0.00            
MON 12Z 21-DEC   2.1     2.1     132    5376    21005           0.00            
MON 18Z 21-DEC  12.1     5.0     134    7742    23010           0.00            
TUE 00Z 22-DEC   8.3     3.5     134    6766    26007           0.00            
TUE 06Z 22-DEC   5.3     0.2     132    8016    29007           0.00            
TUE 12Z 22-DEC   1.8     3.9     132    8424    32005           0.00            
TUE 18Z 22-DEC   9.4     5.5     133    8554    08002           0.00            
WED 00Z 23-DEC   6.5     6.9     134    9796    14004           0.00            
WED 06Z 23-DEC   2.9     8.1     134    9213    15006           0.00            
WED 12Z 23-DEC   4.1     8.3     134    9110    17007           0.00            
WED 18Z 23-DEC  13.2     7.6     134    9746    17011           0.00            
THU 00Z 24-DEC   9.7     5.8     134    9309    16010           0.03            
THU 06Z 24-DEC  11.1     7.1     135    9337    16014           0.03            
THU 12Z 24-DEC  11.0     7.9     135    8909    17012           0.46            
THU 18Z 24-DEC  11.3     6.9     134    8095    25007           0.41            
FRI 00Z 25-DEC   0.3    -2.2     129     102    32009           0.08            
FRI 06Z 25-DEC  -2.7    -9.0     127       0    32011           0.04            
FRI 12Z 25-DEC  -4.9   -10.5     125       0    30010           0.05            
FRI 18Z 25-DEC  -1.3    -9.1     126       0    28009           0.00            
SAT 00Z 26-DEC  -2.3    -7.9     128       0    27006           0.00            
SAT 06Z 26-DEC  -2.4    -5.2     129       0    27007           0.00

jaxjagman · December 19, 2020

Nice hit for TYS

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS    LAT=  35.82 LON=  -83.98 ELE=   981

                                            12Z DEC19
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
SAT 12Z 19-DEC  -2.0     1.8     131    7381    15004                           
SAT 18Z 19-DEC   8.2     2.7     132    7872    23004                           
SUN 00Z 20-DEC   3.3     2.8     132    6826    13004           0.00            
SUN 06Z 20-DEC   3.6     1.8     132    4948    17004           0.00            
SUN 12Z 20-DEC   3.1     0.5     132    3989    13004           0.05            
SUN 18Z 20-DEC   7.4     2.0     133    5082    23002           0.01            
MON 00Z 21-DEC   5.9     2.0     133    4402    27003           0.00            
MON 06Z 21-DEC   5.7     0.3     132    3541    28003           0.01            
MON 12Z 21-DEC   2.7     1.1     132    3836    23004           0.00            
MON 18Z 21-DEC   9.7     2.5     133    5786    24010           0.00            
TUE 00Z 22-DEC   7.4     2.1     133    4590    24009           0.00            
TUE 06Z 22-DEC   4.2    -0.4     132    3409    23006           0.00            
TUE 12Z 22-DEC   1.2    -1.4     131    7591    26004           0.00            
TUE 18Z 22-DEC   8.2     3.0     132    8209    36003           0.00            
WED 00Z 23-DEC   4.1     5.4     133    9605    20002           0.00            
WED 06Z 23-DEC   1.1     8.2     134    9096    09004           0.00            
WED 12Z 23-DEC   1.2     7.2     133    8778    13004           0.00            
WED 18Z 23-DEC  12.3     7.4     134    8720    17004           0.00            
THU 00Z 24-DEC   8.2     6.7     134    9240    18006           0.00            
THU 06Z 24-DEC   7.5     5.7     134    8984    15005           0.02            
THU 12Z 24-DEC  10.8     7.1     135    9321    16005           0.08            
THU 18Z 24-DEC  12.3     9.7     136    8951    16011           0.56            
FRI 00Z 25-DEC  10.5     7.9     136    6745    23003           0.52            
FRI 06Z 25-DEC   2.0    -2.2     130     806    28005           0.31            
FRI 12Z 25-DEC  -2.8    -9.9     127       0    28007           0.25            
FRI 18Z 25-DEC  -4.4   -12.8     126       0    27009           0.21            
SAT 00Z 26-DEC  -4.4   -11.2     127       0    26007           0.00            
SAT 06Z 26-DEC  -6.1    -9.9     127       0    22006           0.00            
SAT 12Z 26-DEC  -6.5    -6.9     127       0    22006           0.00            
SAT 18Z 26-DEC   0.6    -6.7     129     298    26004           0.00            
SUN 00Z 27-DEC

jaxjagman · December 19, 2020

CMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA    LAT=  35.03 LON=  -85.20 ELE=   689

                                            12Z DEC19
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
SAT 12Z 19-DEC  -1.1     2.4     131    8118    18004                           
SAT 18Z 19-DEC   8.6     3.4     132    8373    17007                           
SUN 00Z 20-DEC   5.8     3.5     132    7059    16006           0.00            
SUN 06Z 20-DEC   5.1     1.6     132    5185    17006           0.00            
SUN 12Z 20-DEC   4.5     2.8     133    5772    16003           0.06            
SUN 18Z 20-DEC   9.0     3.0     133    5844    21004           0.01            
MON 00Z 21-DEC   7.7     2.1     133    5670    25002           0.01            
MON 06Z 21-DEC   5.4     1.9     133    4723    28004           0.00            
MON 12Z 21-DEC   3.1     2.2     132    4972    26003           0.00            
MON 18Z 21-DEC  10.2     4.3     133    8084    24008           0.00            
TUE 00Z 22-DEC   7.9     4.9     134    7788    25006           0.00            
TUE 06Z 22-DEC   4.6     2.3     133    9342    26006           0.00            
TUE 12Z 22-DEC   3.0     3.9     132    9222    34005           0.00            
TUE 18Z 22-DEC  10.1     6.2     133   10070    01004           0.00            
WED 00Z 23-DEC   5.2     7.6     134    9940    07003           0.00            
WED 06Z 23-DEC   1.6     9.2     134    9857    08002           0.00            
WED 12Z 23-DEC   3.6     7.9     133    9144    16006           0.00            
WED 18Z 23-DEC  12.4     7.0     134    9222    16010           0.00            
THU 00Z 24-DEC  10.0     5.5     134    9307    16009           0.00            
THU 06Z 24-DEC   9.5     5.2     134    8780    16009           0.04            
THU 12Z 24-DEC  11.3     7.1     135    9741    16014           0.12            
THU 18Z 24-DEC  12.8     8.6     136    8619    17007           0.75            
FRI 00Z 25-DEC   8.0     7.2     134    6928    30008           0.25            
FRI 06Z 25-DEC  -0.4    -5.7     128      16    30008           0.10            
FRI 12Z 25-DEC  -3.2   -11.6     127       0    29010           0.11            
FRI 18Z 25-DEC  -1.2   -11.0     127       0    28010           0.04            
SAT 00Z 26-DEC  -2.3    -8.0     128       0    27007           0.00            
SAT 06Z 26-DEC  -4.1    -7.2     128       0    24005           0.00            
SAT 12Z 26-DEC  -4.1    -3.3     129       0    26005           0.00            
SAT 18Z 26-DEC   4.9    -3.2     130    1245    29004           0.00            
SUN 00Z 27-DEC   1.4    -1.9     131    2081    29005           0.00

Wurbus · December 19, 2020

If this does come to fruition, would the changeover to snow in eastern areas be happening Thursday evening/night? I always have trouble reading the timing on the models.

jaxjagman · December 19, 2020

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI    LAT=  36.47 LON=  -82.40 ELE=  1519

                                            12Z DEC19
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
SAT 12Z 19-DEC  -3.5     1.2     131    6941    12002                           
SAT 18Z 19-DEC   7.7     2.1     132    5805    25002                           
SUN 00Z 20-DEC   0.5     2.8     132    6722    12003           0.00            
SUN 06Z 20-DEC   1.6     1.8     132    4366    16004           0.00            
SUN 12Z 20-DEC   1.3    -0.9     131    2515    16002           0.01            
SUN 18Z 20-DEC   8.8     1.5     133    3717    28002           0.00            
MON 00Z 21-DEC   4.8     2.3     133    4036    17002           0.00            
MON 06Z 21-DEC   4.2     0.8     132    3354    26003           0.02            
MON 12Z 21-DEC   1.9    -0.3     131    2564    25004           0.03            
MON 18Z 21-DEC   7.3     1.2     132    3400    24007           0.00            
TUE 00Z 22-DEC   6.6     1.3     133    3341    26011           0.00            
TUE 06Z 22-DEC   3.8    -1.8     132    2219    26010           0.00            
TUE 12Z 22-DEC   1.6    -5.4     130    1244    26006           0.00            
TUE 18Z 22-DEC   6.4    -1.3     131    6428    30006           0.00            
WED 00Z 23-DEC   2.3     2.6     132    7429    21004           0.00            
WED 06Z 23-DEC  -0.3     6.5     133    8186    11004           0.00            
WED 12Z 23-DEC  -0.3     7.3     134    7889    13003           0.00            
WED 18Z 23-DEC  12.0     7.5     134    8501    16007           0.00            
THU 00Z 24-DEC   6.3     6.9     133    8272    15008           0.00            
THU 06Z 24-DEC   7.2     5.5     134    7642    13006           0.00            
THU 12Z 24-DEC   8.6     7.2     135    8171    13007           0.05            
THU 18Z 24-DEC  10.8     7.7     136    7439    16008           0.10            
FRI 00Z 25-DEC   9.6     9.2     136    7811    18001           0.67            
FRI 06Z 25-DEC   8.3     5.7     134    6277    30006           0.95            
FRI 12Z 25-DEC   0.0    -6.1     129      64    29008           0.23            
FRI 18Z 25-DEC  -4.2   -11.5     127       0    27011           0.22            
SAT 00Z 26-DEC  -5.1   -12.3     127       0    27010           0.05            
SAT 06Z 26-DEC  -6.0   -13.1     126       0    26007           0.00            
SAT 12Z 26-DEC  -6.9   -11.2     126       0    24007           0.00            
SAT 18Z 26-DEC  -1.1   -10.4     128       0    28010           0.00            
SUN 00Z 27-DEC  -4.4    -8.5     128       0    28006           0.00            
SUN 06Z 27-DEC  -7.2    -7.0     128       0    20003           0.00            
SUN 12Z 27-DEC                            55    10002           0.00            
SUN 18Z 27-DEC

Holston_River_Rambler · December 19, 2020

2 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

If this does come to fruition, would the changeover to snow in eastern areas be happening Thursday evening/night? I always have trouble reading the timing on the models.

Looks like, if I'm reading Jax's data right (and I may not be) it would be between 2 AM and 8 AM Friday.

jaxjagman · December 19, 2020

Just now, Wurbus said:

If this does come to fruition, would the changeover to snow in eastern areas be happening Thursday evening/night? I always have trouble reading the timing on the models.

Late night it seems,you would wake up to a White X-Mas tho for a change,this alone is exciting

BlunderStorm · December 19, 2020

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Looks like, if I'm reading Jax's data right (and I may not be) it would be between 2 AM and 8 AM Friday.

Probably the most coveted window for snow in any year. We still have a good amount of variation in timings with the GFS and UKIE hitting earlier. If I had to guess at least in the GFS's case it has to do with it's bias.

jaxjagman · December 19, 2020

I know it's banter but i just had to thinking of the Euro and weather,seems fitting with our last years during Christmas wanting snow and even cold

Holston_River_Rambler · December 19, 2020

4 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

I know it's banter but i just had to thinking of the Euro and weather,seems fitting with our last years during Christmas wanting snow and even cold

I think at this point, we're not just used to these systems failing, but that expectation has even settled into our bones. It's happened so much, I'm not sure this one would be any worse for me. Might as well have fun with it while we can!

Wurbus · December 19, 2020

12 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Late night it seems,you would wake up to a White X-Mas tho for a change,this alone is exciting

Wake up or be up all night watching it snow?

Holston_River_Rambler · December 19, 2020

jaxjagman · December 19, 2020

Weak system in the long range,just looking at the teles it looks like the AO could possibly stay -ve into the new year with a weak but +PNA

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z DEC19
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
SAT 12Z 19-DEC   2.1     3.9     133    6348    18008                           
SAT 18Z 19-DEC   7.9     4.1     133    6720    18007                           
SUN 00Z 20-DEC   6.2     3.4     133    6534    18006           0.03            
SUN 06Z 20-DEC   5.0     0.5     132    4793    19004           0.27            
SUN 12Z 20-DEC   5.4     2.0     132    5253    19003           0.08            
SUN 18Z 20-DEC   8.5     1.1     132    5906    26003           0.01            
MON 00Z 21-DEC   4.9     0.9     132    4822    17002           0.01            
MON 06Z 21-DEC   2.7     1.5     132    4656    24004           0.00            
MON 12Z 21-DEC   2.1     2.1     132    5376    21005           0.00            
MON 18Z 21-DEC  12.1     5.0     134    7742    23010           0.00            
TUE 00Z 22-DEC   8.3     3.5     134    6766    26007           0.00            
TUE 06Z 22-DEC   5.3     0.2     132    8016    29007           0.00            
TUE 12Z 22-DEC   1.8     3.9     132    8424    32005           0.00            
TUE 18Z 22-DEC   9.4     5.5     133    8554    08002           0.00            
WED 00Z 23-DEC   6.5     6.9     134    9796    14004           0.00            
WED 06Z 23-DEC   2.9     8.1     134    9213    15006           0.00            
WED 12Z 23-DEC   4.1     8.3     134    9110    17007           0.00            
WED 18Z 23-DEC  13.2     7.6     134    9746    17011           0.00            
THU 00Z 24-DEC   9.7     5.8     134    9309    16010           0.03            
THU 06Z 24-DEC  11.1     7.1     135    9337    16014           0.03            
THU 12Z 24-DEC  11.0     7.9     135    8909    17012           0.46            
THU 18Z 24-DEC  11.3     6.9     134    8095    25007           0.41            
FRI 00Z 25-DEC   0.3    -2.2     129     102    32009           0.08            
FRI 06Z 25-DEC  -2.7    -9.0     127       0    32011           0.04            
FRI 12Z 25-DEC  -4.9   -10.5     125       0    30010           0.05            
FRI 18Z 25-DEC  -1.3    -9.1     126       0    28009           0.00            
SAT 00Z 26-DEC  -2.3    -7.9     128       0    27006           0.00            
SAT 06Z 26-DEC  -2.4    -5.2     129       0    27007           0.00            
SAT 12Z 26-DEC  -3.9    -3.7     129       0    28005           0.00            
SAT 18Z 26-DEC   4.2    -3.3     130    1044    27003           0.00            
SUN 00Z 27-DEC   0.9    -1.3     130    2251    22002           0.00            
SUN 06Z 27-DEC  -2.8     1.1     131    7408    17004           0.00            
SUN 12Z 27-DEC  -3.4     2.3     131    8326    15005           0.00            
SUN 18Z 27-DEC   8.3     3.8     132    8083    17007           0.00            
MON 00Z 28-DEC   4.7     4.4     133    8252    16008           0.00            
MON 06Z 28-DEC   4.8     2.5     132    5652    17011           0.00            
MON 12Z 28-DEC   3.8     1.6     132    5272    17011           0.21            
MON 18Z 28-DEC   5.7    -1.9     131    2722    21008           0.12            
TUE 00Z 29-DEC   3.4    -4.8     130    1549    26006           0.06            
TUE 06Z 29-DEC   2.3    -6.3     129    1323    27005           0.02            
TUE 12Z 29-DEC   1.6    -7.2     129     768    29005           0.01

Holston_River_Rambler · December 19, 2020

Here is the EPS mean FWIW. Looks to me about as good as 12z yesterday and an improvement from the overnight EPS:

The ever stingy snow mean:

jaxjagman · December 19, 2020

Think John mentioned this a couple days ago, this look more like a ANA-FRONT,Even the Euro shows some showalter so a rumble of thunder would seem to be a possibility along the front

Carvers Gap · December 20, 2020

Really like where the ensembles 12z GEPS and 18z GEFS are headed.

Icy Hot · December 20, 2020

And where is that? Details???

Carvers Gap · December 20, 2020

8 minutes ago, Icy Hot said:

And where is that? Details???

Basically, a double block - Atlantic and Pacific in the LR.

tnweathernut · December 20, 2020

8 minutes ago, Icy Hot said:

And where is that? Details???

Aleutian low, west coast ridge, Atlantic ridging, and a trough from central to the eastern US. If true .........the time around New Years will have to be watched for winter fun.

TellicoWx · December 20, 2020

Nice improvement on the 0z GEFS

TellicoWx · December 20, 2020

Individual members

Daniel Boone · December 20, 2020

CMC and GFS Operationals went in the crapper tonight. GFS manages to somehow pop a SE Ridge by New Years. Don't know how it came to that equation.?!?!

TellicoWx · December 20, 2020

0z UKie

John1122 · December 20, 2020

49 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

CMC and GFS Operationals went in the crapper tonight. GFS manages to somehow pop a SE Ridge by New Years. Don't know how it came to that equation.?!?!

The runs beyond 200 hrs are prone to wild swings even at 500mb. A couple of weeks ago they were throwing out +20 anomalies for this time frame. The SE ridge could happen but who knows. I think Holston has found at times if convection flares even briefly in MJO regions that are warm, the next GFS run goes bad at 500mb the next run or two.

jaxjagman · December 20, 2020

Ouch,GFS in the long range went from cold to severe with the helicities over 600 around New Years night

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December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.

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