Pockets damaging wind-power outage potential 4P-10P Sunday Nov 15, 2020

[wdrag]

Good Monday morning all,  

Here's a quick summary of max gusts in the OKX area, that the NWS reported. Am pretty sure there will have to be an update later today.Havez no idea if a TOR Survey is planned?

Seems like 50-65 MPH was common in the more intense bands.

Am heartened that the Richardson # and wind fields from the 3K NAM were valuable prevent assessments. This same 3K NAM was 2 hrs too fast with the squalli line on Friday...RGEM superior.  Power outages not quite as bad LI/CT as expected. See pix for this morning. The customers out = meters. Most homes have only 1 meter. So, for total people out...safely, twice the # of meters. 

I'll wrap up the 5 day thread separately around 11A.

Thanks for all the reports. 

 

LOCATION             MAX WIND     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                        GUST            OF
                         MPH    MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...Fairfield County...
   Stamford                67   747 PM 11/15  CWOP
   Bridgeport Airport      61   914 PM 11/15  ASOS
   Greenwich               57   716 PM 11/15  CWOP
   Bridgeport              53   818 PM 11/15  NOS-NWLON
   Bridgeport              46   803 PM 11/15  CWOP

...New Haven County...
   New Haven Airport       58   830 PM 11/15  ASOS
   New Haven               56   825 PM 11/15  CWOP
   Milford                 53   806 PM 11/15  CWOP
   Stony Creek             52   928 PM 11/15  CWOP
   Meriden Airport         46   934 PM 11/15  ASOS

...New London County...
   Groton Airport          55  1024 PM 11/15  ASOS

NEW JERSEY

...Essex County...
   Caldwell                55   817 PM 11/15  ASOS

...Union County...
   Newark Airport          60   829 PM 11/15  ASOS

NEW YORK

...Nassau County...
   1 NW Uniondale (WEAT    51   820 PM 11/15  MESOWEST
   Muttontown              47   905 PM 11/15  CWOP
   Valley Stream           46   806 PM 11/15  CWOP

...Queens County...
   NYC/La Guardia          62   844 PM 11/15  ASOS
   NYC/JFK Airport         59   755 PM 11/15  ASOS
   Jackson Heights         49   900 PM 11/15  CWOP

...Richmond County...
   2 SE Elizabeth          70   830 PM 11/15  NDBC

...Suffolk County...
   Islip Airport           54   933 PM 11/15  ASOS
   Orient                  54  1000 PM 11/15  CWOP
   Farmingdale Airport     54   915 PM 11/15  ASOS
   Farmingville            51   947 PM 11/15  CWOP
   West Gilgo Beach        50   816 PM 11/15  CWOP
   Shirley Airport         49   928 PM 11/15  ASOS
   Stony Brook             49   816 PM 11/15  CWOP
   Orient                  48  1016 PM 11/15  CWOP
   Stony Brook             46   934 PM 11/15  CWOP

...Westchester County...
   White Plains Airport    53   849 PM 11/15  ASOS

 

[dWave]

7 hours ago, TriPol said:

Anyone else seeing this?

 

 

That a pretty much what it was like here last night.

[wdrag]

Just for the fun of it...take a look back at the Eta Remnant potential thread p2 1148AM Friday post which had the timing of the squall line. RGEM vs NAM3K.

Amazing RGEM timing. This was just 8 hours before this damage thread was started Friday evening. I've been liking the RGEM lately...expresses qpf areas nicely, and timing.  Might be slightly too robust on qpf amount  but overall... a worthy check through the Tropical Tidbits link, or your other favorite resources. 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, jconsor said:

The 83 mph gust at Matinecock Point was from a WeatherFlow station and was slightly elevated (45 feet or 13.7 m versus standard 10 m anemometer height).  It converts to around 80 mph at standard height.  The station is called Bayville by WeatherFlow, but is actually located at the northern end of Glen Cove, slightly west of Bayville.

Another elevated WeatherFlow station (71 feet or 21.6 m, on top of a lighthouse) in Eatons Neck reported a 80 mph gust, which converts to around 74 mph at standard height.

A Weather Underground station in nearby Centre Island reported a 67 mph gust. 

Per the WeatherFlow stations, gusts on the immediate South Shore were a little lower than on the immediate North Shore.  Highest gust I saw from WeatherFlow stations on the South Shore was 60 mph in Oak Beach near the eastern end of Jones Beach Island.

You can view the WeatherFlow data (for a limited time, as long as Hurricane Iota is still around) here: http://ds.weatherflow.com/storm/iota#40.641,-73.27,15,19

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for this!  Will these values be accepted?  The highest official wind speeds I've seen quoted this morning is the 70 mph at Brooklyn College.  It's been reported that 60 mph gusts were widespread throughout the area.

My other question is- was this a derecho?  We had a long line of extremely strong winds going from Ohio, across PA and right into the Northeast.  There was even a 15 ft seiche on Lake Erie!

 

[LibertyBell]

Also heard that this was the first time ever a part of NYC has had a tornado warning in November?  Overall there were three tornado warnings, one for parts of NYC (Manhattan, Bronx) another one in the Lower Hudson Valley and one in Suffolk County.  These records go back to 1984.

 

 

[Parsley]

13 hours ago, Rjay said:

Forgot you moved to Holbrook. Hope all is well.

[Parsley]

13 hours ago, psv88 said:

You move to Suffolk and immediately score a Tor lol

He'll be a front-line rain sniffer with snow-> rain storms. 

I remember those days well!

 

How you be PSV?

[uncle W]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Also heard that this was the first time ever a part of NYC has had a tornado warning in November?  Overall there were three tornado warnings, one for parts of NYC (Manhattan, Bronx) another one in the Lower Hudson Valley and one in Suffolk County.  These records go back to 1984.

 

 

DC had one around this time...

1927...tornado in DC...

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/58334027/

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/58334036

[IrishRob17]

13 hours ago, uncle W said:

thanks Walt...I cant figure out what part of Brooklyn that is?...I had a roof top weather sight when I lived in Brooklyn...my strongest gust of wind was 60mph in November 1989...

I popped the coordinates into Google Earth and when I zoomed in I saw its at Brooklyn College.

 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Parsley said:

He'll be a front-line rain sniffer with snow-> rain storms. 

I remember those days well!

 

How you be PSV?

That used to be my job when I was living in Long Beach. It’s a rough job but someone’s gotta take it. 

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

I popped the coordinates into Google Earth and when I zoomed in I saw its at Brooklyn College.

 

my house was about three miles west of there...

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Also heard that this was the first time ever a part of NYC has had a tornado warning in November?  Overall there were three tornado warnings, one for parts of NYC (Manhattan, Bronx) another one in the Lower Hudson Valley and one in Suffolk County.  These records go back to 1984.

 

 

The first time the area had 3 tornado warnings in November . 2018 was the first year with 3 tornado warnings in October.

 

[Rjay]

3 hours ago, Parsley said:

Forgot you moved to Holbrook. Hope all is well.

Thanks man. Everything is great.  Hope you and your family are doing well too. 

[wdrag]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Also heard that this was the first time ever a part of NYC has had a tornado warning in November?  Overall there were three tornado warnings, one for parts of NYC (Manhattan, Bronx) another one in the Lower Hudson Valley and one in Suffolk County.  These records go back to 1984.

 

 

One note:  and this is written not knowing if a TOR survey is being conducted... but warnings are warnings--- whether they verify is another matter.  

Therefore, what to me is most important on TOR climo, is not the # of warnings but # of occurrences.  

The warning for me only means big wind is being detected with probable rotation to the surface.  I didn't check but I suspect this was an updated warning (TOR) embedded in what previously had been a big lead time SVR. To me the prior SVR would be the critical notifier-headsup... take cover! 

EF1 (86MPH+ ) or greater is more important to me than the EF0's- from a science standpoint I understand EF0 documentation but from a lead time value added here in the northeast with many fleeting short lived EF0 signatures, the prior SVR was critical. 

For what it's worth, HSLC environments like yesterday's can produce embedded TOR's and was what I was hinting at in pre-event discussion of breaks in a line etc.  I just didn't want to name it...  modeling for the TOR I thought was minimal and mentioning TOR puts pressure on forecasters, just via ph calls.  I think it gets too much attention unless it's clearly signaled via modeling, radar, debris signatures and most of all ..ground truth.. 

Again, this is written without knowledge if there was a  tornado or not.  

[psv88]

4 hours ago, Parsley said:

He'll be a front-line rain sniffer with snow-> rain storms. 

I remember those days well!

 

How you be PSV?

Whats up brother! Same ole story here. How about you?

[Cfa]

I just realized my weather radio never made a sound last night. Lol yikes. Might be time to get a new one.

I didn’t see any damage this morning, other than a fallen tree. I think everything that could’ve fallen over already did during Isaias.

[Parsley]

3 hours ago, Rjay said:

Thanks man. Everything is great.  Hope you and your family are doing well too. 

 

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

Whats up brother! Same ole story here. How about you?

Nice. All is well here. Think I told you my sister bought a home in East Islip over the summer.  Haven't seen it yet in person due to COVID. Actually haven't been back on LI since February.

[LibertyBell]

On 11/16/2020 at 2:45 PM, wdrag said:

One note:  and this is written not knowing if a TOR survey is being conducted... but warnings are warnings--- whether they verify is another matter.  

Therefore, what to me is most important on TOR climo, is not the # of warnings but # of occurrences.  

The warning for me only means big wind is being detected with probable rotation to the surface.  I didn't check but I suspect this was an updated warning (TOR) embedded in what previously had been a big lead time SVR. To me the prior SVR would be the critical notifier-headsup... take cover! 

EF1 (86MPH+ ) or greater is more important to me than the EF0's- from a science standpoint I understand EF0 documentation but from a lead time value added here in the northeast with many fleeting short lived EF0 signatures, the prior SVR was critical. 

For what it's worth, HSLC environments like yesterday's can produce embedded TOR's and was what I was hinting at in pre-event discussion of breaks in a line etc.  I just didn't want to name it...  modeling for the TOR I thought was minimal and mentioning TOR puts pressure on forecasters, just via ph calls.  I think it gets too much attention unless it's clearly signaled via modeling, radar, debris signatures and most of all ..ground truth.. 

Again, this is written without knowledge if there was a  tornado or not.  

No tornado Walt.....or at least no one investigated to see if there was one.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 11/16/2020 at 12:54 PM, bluewave said:

The first time the area had 3 tornado warnings in November . 2018 was the first year with 3 tornado warnings in October.

 

The Coldenham Elementary School tragedy that happened in Nov 1989 happened without a tornado warning?  I do remember there were tornado watches in effect, but no warning as far as I remember.  Do you have any maps from what happened that day?  All I remember is that day was extremely windy and we couldn't get the doors open.

[LibertyBell]

On 11/16/2020 at 12:37 PM, uncle W said:

my house was about three miles west of there...

I wonder if they measure snow there too and how long that equipment has been there?