Griteater's Winter Outlook (20-21)

[griteater]

Griteater's Winter Outlook (20-21)

 

Link to PDF: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S-f_HQdrNYZkrRw_6YhkFCkASa0WAZpa/view

 

Also posted on Twitter: https://twitter.com/griteater/status/1326893718536859649?s=20

 

Top Pattern Analog: Winter of 1893-1894

[bklnwx1]

PDF link blocked in Malwarebytes as a Trojan--be careful.

[griteater]

16 minutes ago, bklnwx1 said:

PDF link blocked in Malwarebytes as a Trojan--be careful.

Apologies.  I just uploaded it to Google Drive, so hopefully that doesn't cause issues as well.  Link in the original post is updated.  I need a blog site, but just have never gotten around to it.  Thanks.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S-f_HQdrNYZkrRw_6YhkFCkASa0WAZpa/view

[calculus1]

I love the research, time, and thought you put into this, Grit.  But, I hate your conclusions. 

[Upstate Tiger]

Grit....good stuff as usual.  Unfortunately, I think the science and your experience probably support your forecast becoming reality.  Like you said, those winters weren't complete shut outs....

[etudiant]

3 hours ago, griteater said:

Griteater's Winter Outlook (20-21)

 

Link to PDF: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S-f_HQdrNYZkrRw_6YhkFCkASa0WAZpa/view

 

Also posted on Twitter: https://twitter.com/griteater/status/1326893718536859649?s=20

 

Top Pattern Analog: Winter of 1893-1894

This is a very fine piece of work, reasoned and supported by historical evidence.

It is work like this that gives hope that longer term weather forecasts can be achieved.

[griteater]

^ Appreciate the feedback in the posts.  Humbled.

[chubbs]

After last year would take 1893-94 . Below are the local philly stats - downtown then vs airport today - norms 1880-1910

Dec  36.4  +0.2   3.5"

Jan  36.6   +3.9   4.1"

Feb  31.9   -1.3    11.5"

seasonal snow - 20.3" vs 24.3" norm

[griteater]

5 minutes ago, chubbs said:

After last year would take 1893-94 . Below are the local philly stats - downtown then vs airport today - norms 1880-1910

Dec  36.4  +0.2   3.5"

Jan  36.6   +3.9   4.1"

Feb  31.9   -1.3    11.5"

seasonal snow - 20.3" vs 24.3" norm

chubbs - that's cool that you pulled this data and used it against the period norms (1880-1910).  Can you add March in there?  I suspect it was quite warm based on the pattern.

[chubbs]

7 minutes ago, griteater said:

chubbs - that's cool that you pulled this data and used it against the period norms (1880-1910).  Can you add March in there?  I suspect it was quite warm based on the pattern.

yes it was warm:

March  47  +6.2  T

the last 1.2" of snow fell in April.

Enjoyed the outlook.

[BucksCO_PA]

30 minutes ago, chubbs said:

After last year would take 1893-94 . Below are the local philly stats - downtown then vs airport today - norms 1880-1910

Dec  36.4  +0.2   3.5"

Jan  36.6   +3.9   4.1"

Feb  31.9   -1.3    11.5"

seasonal snow - 20.3" vs 24.3" norm

Tough to tell since it's so far back & I can't find the hourly OBS but appears there could have been a decent early winter icing event that transitioned to snow. 

12/4 - 32/26 split, 0.52" of precip, no snow recorded 

12/5 - 29/22 split, 0.24" of precip, 2.8" of snow

Hard to believe it could snow at Philly on DEC 5th, LOL

[raindancewx]

I don't know if it applies area wide for the SW USA, but for Dec-Feb, Albuquerque is about 3F below the 1891 to 1920 high / 1951-2010 high in 1893-94. I'm sure we'll be very warm here in March though as we always do, so the map is probably about right for Dec-Mar.

My main issue with 1893-94 is how dry it is here. It's like 0.25" for the entire winter. We do get dry La Nina years for sure (2017-18 most recently), but they tend to have a super-wet September (like 1893 and 2017) or a super high ACE value (180-280 like 1893 and 2017). 1988-89 is close to an inch here for winter, which is much more likely to me, that's ~25% below average for precipitation, but that year also had a very wet September, which almost always precedes an extremely dry period from Oct-May here in a La Nina. The 1988-89 winter is also super cold in the SW mid-Dec to mid-Jan:

I find for temperatures, high elevations in the SE & SW are also slightly colder in low-solar winters than high-solar winters, and both 1893-94 and 1988-89 are pretty high for solar.

The 1988-89 winter also followed a ~record wet monsoon. The long and short of it is I think maybe the blend is a bit colder than you realize in the West, and that precipitation patterns will probably be pretty different even though I largely agree with the overall temperature look. 1988-89 is pretty snowy deep into the SW. I have no idea how to get a temperature or snow map of 1893. The blend of 1988/1893 is actually a near perfect match on the current ACE value which does intrigue me somewhat, even though both years have very high solar activity.