Rtd208 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Picked up 0.60" of rain for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Rain has stopped for about 2 hours now, I picked up about .69" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 11 hours ago, wdrag said: Corrected OKX potential near record PWAT date to 12z/12. Got a day ahead of myself. Nevertheless, tonight's 00z/12 OKX 1.88" (may need independent confirmation) 'appears' to me as Bluewave noted: The latest wettest PWAT at OKX for Nov. So far the yield has not been impressive. Yeah, looks like the new record for this late in the year. Record rainfall and dew points to our south. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 12, 2020 Author Share Posted November 12, 2020 Modest beneficial rains most of our area since yesterday afternoon, with a radar analysis provided below as of about 10z/12. The legend has the estimates of qpf... biggest PHL to Ocean County NJ, looking like 2.5" plus. Periodic light rains - today, heaviest this morning out on LI/central NJ. Least se NYS and nw NJ. More rain tomorrow during the daylight hours... might only be 1-3 hours in se NYS/nw NJ but possibly moderate for several hours I95 corridor eastward. Dry Saturday (flurries possible Catskills?) Sunday: rain returns late in the day or evening and done by daybreak Monday. The CFP may have iso Thunder. EC gusts now 40-55 MPH with the CFP during Sunday night. Will add the radar numbers and reports here/elsewhere for amounts by Monday morning. Wantage 0.45" so far. Closest overnight thunder was over the Delmarva. Expecting 0.25-1.5" additional rainfall by daybreak Monday. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 12, 2020 Author Share Posted November 12, 2020 Here's some more ground truth. CoCoRAHS data. Looking good for our numbers by the time midnight Sun night rolls around. More coming today, tomorrow... note some pretty decent small showers along ne NJ/PA border at 810A. 12z/12 PW at OKX 1.72". See Bluewave earlier post on late season RER at OKX and numbers RER's s of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 12, 2020 Author Share Posted November 12, 2020 Wantage NJ...rainfall rate now Heavy: 0.35"/hr as of 835A. Now 0.55" since RB around noon yesterday (drizzle prior to that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 12, 2020 Author Share Posted November 12, 2020 Pivatol Weather as delivered the 12z/12 3K NAM: here is the accumulated MODELed qpf from 18z today-18z Friday (24 hr 1P today-1P Friday). Has a chance of being halfway decent. Wantage storm total now .58. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 .88" here 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 12, 2020 Author Share Posted November 12, 2020 Just my last update on CoCoRAHS D1 qpf ending this morning. here will be two day CoCoRAHS totals posting sometime tomorrow morning as well as two day radar totals. Will do ditto Saturday morning and a wrap Monday morning. Sunday may be looking better for decent amounts?? .60 in this part of Wantage Nj now. We're on the low side of all this first rain batch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 12, 2020 Author Share Posted November 12, 2020 No changes from the morning update. From now through midnight Sunday night 0.25"-1.5" new rainfall with periods of light to moderate rain this evening, mostly I95 corridor eastward, then widespread rain-showers tomorrow morning-early afternoon for 3-9 hours...longest duration I95 corridor eastward. A 2-5 hour wide band of convection expected between 4P-10P Sunday, may be accompanied by a G 40-50MPH and rain should be briefly moderate to heavy. Prior to 4P Sunday...there could be a little drizzle or light rain in early afternoon. Will rereview Friday morning. Have no plans for a subtopic svr, unless SPC outlooks then I'll break something out. Needs rereview the next couple of mornings. Wantage 0.61" for the entire event. Expect to be close to 1" here by the time this 5 day period completes Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Picked up 0.22" of rain for the day. Two day total 0.82" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 13, 2020 Author Share Posted November 13, 2020 Good Friday morning everyone, RGEM has been the best model in the past day or so regarding the qpf for the daylight hours yesterday, overnight and today. Am expecting it to perform very well today, and Sunday. Widespread drizzle early this morning grows into showery rains of probably moderate intensity for the I95 corridor eastward across LI-CT later this morning. It ends west of the Hudson River into nw NJ around 1PM, and NYC-coastal NJ around 2-3P and eastern LI CT 3P-5P. Expect another 0.1 to .25" from 7AM onward except less than 0.1" extreme nw NJ into Orange and Ulster counties. Flurries Catskills on Saturday. Otherwise a nice M/S day. Sunday: Am on the fence about a separate damaging wind event topic. For now, keeping it internal to this topic since am not sure how much wind can transfer downward from above 950MB. Suggest - continue following the RGEM for widespread 1/4-1" event...heaviest probably se NYS/CT/LI. Drizzle-rain develops Noon-3PM, then expect a band of moderate to heavy showers with slight chance of embedded thunderstorms racing east between 4P-9P, then dwindles to scattered showers or nothing shortly after the CFP. ECMWF rudimentary wind gust forecast is widespread brief 40-50 MPH with isolated 60 MPH possible, especially CT/LI in the convective band. Make it a good day-614A/13 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 13, 2020 Author Share Posted November 13, 2020 Good morning again, Numbers slowly adding up in the dreary pattern that has bright sunshine slated for tomorrow and back to dreary Sunday afternoon. CoCoRAHS two days added, plus NYS mesonet for the entire Wed-Fri morning events, and the radar assessment for the entire event(s)so far. My guess is just about everyone will have 1+ inches by 1159PM Sunday, and the isolated 3" in Ocean County will increase in coverage, with a lot of 1.5's now ending up ~2".. Not much change on timing the ending of todays drizzle-rain... maybe delaying the ending time by 30 minutes to an hour from the 6am update. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 .98". Lines up well with the 1.00" I see on the CoCoRaHS location near Readington on that map above. I drove by that one a few minutes ago and saw a USGS worker doing something at the site (I think they are the same location, but not sure). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 13, 2020 Author Share Posted November 13, 2020 Eta contribution: As we are all aware... Eta had headed northeast from the coastal Carolinas... as they say ... safely out to sea--- EXCEPT for mariners and those on any cruises. However: I've just borrowed from a highly regarded discussion of Eta and the probable PRE (predecessor rainfall event) that occurred in the N Carolina yesterday. The paragraph is not mine... but I think confirms... that Eta moisture or nearly circulation moisture did reach our area Wednesday-early Thursday. Maps of 700-hPa heights, temperatures, winds, and IVT show a direct moisture transport connect from TS Eta all the way to New England at 0000 UTC 12 Nov (http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/abentley/realtime/standard.php?domain=conus&variable=IVT_conv. The maps suggest that this moisture flux convergence existed along and ahead of an advancing cold front in the confluent equatorward entrance region of a strong 80+ m/s upper-level jet centered over northern New England and adjacent Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 13, 2020 Author Share Posted November 13, 2020 Here we present the 12z/13 3K NAM for Sunday, 21z evolving to a quite a line at 23z/15 and 00z/16. If this continues in future cycles and the EC continues to advertise 40-60MPH gusts, will start a damaging wind topic to wrap up this 5 day event. For now, to me, it's a possibility but am a little concerned about buying in yet. (However, utils might like to know this possibility before late today, for contingency planning purposes). At 1155A I added the 12z/13 RGEM... It's a little slower and a little more robust earlier. (21z/15; 00z and 03z/16 added). interesting to see if this is reasonable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Like Walt mentioned above, the Euro has 50 mph winds just off the deck which could mix down in low topped squall line gusts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 48 hour rain total at .94" here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 13, 2020 Author Share Posted November 13, 2020 Will begin a low to moderate confidence Damaging wind and/or SVR (HSLC) topic by 730PM for Sunday 4P-10P. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Like Walt mentioned above, the Euro has 50 mph winds just off the deck which could mix down in low topped squall line gusts. Chris is that 60 mph winds near SW Nassau? We had 1.30 inches of rain over the last 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 14, 2020 Author Share Posted November 14, 2020 Radar-sensor total for the entire event added. Will do the same Monday morning. From the legend most of our area has 1+ with pockets 1/2-1" NNJ, SE NYS-CT. the 2.5+ has expanded in central NJ. Will try to add CoCoRAHS 3 day totals if available, around 10A today. Should have brief heavy showers and a squall Sunday afternoon evening. Amounts generally 1/4-1" with best chance 1" seeming to be se NYS-CT. Fast moving squall line itself probably wont last longer than 30 minutes. Separate thread for the wind damage-power outage portion which focuses on LI/CT. Enjoy this bright day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Picked up 0.08" of rain for the day yesterday. Three day storm total 0.90" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 16, 2020 Author Share Posted November 16, 2020 Some early 5 day summary info appended. Includes NYS mesonet and radar-sensor qpf for the entire period. (i in Wantage NJ had only .92 on the edge of the blue area in nw NJ). Added CoCoRAHS around 115PM. Initial topic 1-3" was better than the followup 2-4 iso 6 for our NYC forum. Rainy-drizzly a good part of the daylight hours Wed-Thu-Fri, then final event arrived very late in the day Sunday the 15th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Looks like 1.3 from the first event and 0.4 (but accompanied by intense 60-70 mph winds) for the second event. Do you think that was a derecho Walt? Widespread extreme wind event from Ohio, across PA and into the North East including a 15 ft seiche on Lake Erie! Also are late season events like these more common during a La Nina (especially a moderate-strong one) just like they are during the spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 16, 2020 Author Share Posted November 16, 2020 4 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Looks like 1.3 from the first event and 0.4 (but accompanied by intense 60-70 mph winds) for the second event. Do you think that was a derecho Walt? Widespread extreme wind event from Ohio, across PA and into the North East including a 15 ft seiche on Lake Erie! Also are late season events like these more common during a La Nina (especially a moderate-strong one) just like they are during the spring? Hi. I don't know on both, perhaps others might. Strong PPP falls and some rises behind may have caused the seiche on LErie along with strong westerly gradient. Presume you meant 1.5 ft seiche...not 15 ft tsunami-like impact. Derecho... long lived for sure, and not sure if enough 75 MPH wind gusts? Am sure others may have more info to answer. Here's some info you can do some additional research into. When i think of Derecho...I tend to think spring-summer and many 75-90 MPH gusts enroute. However, I must be corrected if am wrong. Thanks. One of the authors, is the recently passed, excellent SELS-SPC forecaster-teacher = Bob Johns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Thanks Walt! I remember 1998 was prolific for them, in May 1998 and again in September 1998 when an F2 tornado passed about 2 miles from my house! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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