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November Discobs 2020


George BM
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Thought you all might enjoy this.  I’m in a leaf vacuum district, so what we do is put our leaves at the curb and the county sends a truck around to get them every 3-4 weeks in Fall.  Our maple dropped several days ago, so I had a nice sized pile.  When I woke up this morning the pile was gone and the remnants were down the street.  As it turns out my camera system caught the “leafslide” during the heaviest of the rain last evening.  The water falling in the foreground is from the clogged gutters, of course.

 

 

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37 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Looking forward to back to the fall feel next week.  And Euro still hinting at a well below average day on Wednesday.  Northern neck stuck in the 30s . Eps actually agrees with this potential.  Have to see how far south that trough gets early week. 

Looking good for first freeze for almost everyone (who hasn’t had one yet)...but will DCA go?

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From Mount Holly AFD regarding  convection/wind potential tomorrow-

As the aforementioned shortwave trough passes quickly to our north into the afternoon, heights will be falling rapidly (as will surface pressure) and widespread rain showers are expected to develop. These convective showers could help mix down some of the stronger winds from the developing low level jet. However the main feature of interest from a convective standpoint is the potential for power showers, or a power squall, to develop along the cold front as it passes quickly across the region from west to east. The primary timing of this appears to be the 4 PM to 8 PM time frame. Dewpoints will be surging quickly to near 60 degrees ahead of the cold front allowing for a brief window of MLCAPE in the 200-300 J/kg range. Guidance is notorious for under forecasting dewpoints/low- level moisture profiles in these regimes, so I tend to think dewpoints and CAPE values will be at least slightly higher than guidance currently suggests. This combined with ample forcing aloft, boundary parallel effective shear of about 45 kts, and strong low- level kinematic fields will support a line or broken line of convection along or just ahead of the cold front. This line may be capable of mixing down wind gusts on the order of 50 kts, which may prompt the issuance of a few Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. And yes, a few rumbles of thunder are possible as well. This setup remains quite marginal from a severe convective potential, but we will continue to evaluate.

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