CAPE Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 0.66" here so far. Just showery now. Still looks like 2" or so with the next wave. Hoping for an under-performer again. Leaves everywhere! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 1.76" over here in Frederick. We have been getting dumped on for the past 30 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 0.83” so far. The Euro and HRRR thinks that somebody gets trained tonight. Probably Prince Frederick based on how 2020 has gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 Wet! https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0856&yr=2020 Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0856 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 534 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 Areas affected...far eastern TN, western NC into western/central VA and southern MD Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 112228Z - 120425Z Summary...Flash flooding is expected from far eastern TN and western NC as well as western and central VA into southern MD through 04Z from an additional 2-4 inches of rain, on top of a broad 1-3 inches which has fallen over the past 12-24 hours. Discussion...22Z surface observations showed that a cold front extended from western PA into northwestern GA, or just west of the spine of the Appalachians. Moisture was highly anomalous for November to the east of the front, with precipitable water values ranging from 1.5 in western VA/NC to over 2 inches in central/southeastern VA. In addition, MUCAPE was estimated to be in the 500 to 1500 J/kg range across a broad section of the warm sector, with CAPE values having increased 200-400 J/kg across much of VA and MD over the past 3 hours via low level moisture transport according to the 21Z SPC mesoanalysis. Southwesterly 850 mb flow was observed in the 20-35 kt range from western NC into western/central VA via recent VAD wind plots. As the cold front continues eastward early tonight, broad low level directional confluence/speed convergence, extending from western NC into western/central VA and southern MD, will support an increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms. This will occur beneath strengthening upper level divergence and diffluence, located on the southern end of an upper level jet streak, with a peak magnitude of 150-170 kt in southern Quebec. 850-300 mb flow, a proxy for cell motions, is parallel to the axis of low level convergence, which will support repeating and brief training of cells at times. With the degree of moisture and instability in place, peak rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will be possible with a few locations picking up an additional 2-4 inches of rain by 04Z. Recent heavy rain over the past 12-24 hours has lowered flash flood guidance values across a large portion of the MPD threat area to 1 inch or less in 1 and 3 hours. Given the low flash flood guidance, flash flooding is considered likely. Otto ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...LWX...MRX...RNK... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38997703 38627659 38257660 37087900 36667996 36128119 35788239 35828262 36028268 36508197 37048115 37947971 38517804 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 9 hours ago, dailylurker said: I've been in the rain jackpot for 6 months lol. I remember riding the bus to school that morning and it was cold and raining lightly. About half way to school I remember big snowflakes starting to mix in and come down heavier. By the time we got off the bus about 15 minutes later it was all snow and already starting to stick on grass and cars. That was probably about 8am. By 11 roads had caved and it was coming down probably 2+ inches per hour. I remember eating lunch in the cafeteria and hearing loud thunder and seeing flashes of lightning like a summer storm. I'd estimate it was snowing 3+ inches per hour at that point. That went on most of the afternoon. It finally ended around dark but by then we were stuck in school. Some kids had to stay all night. I remember measuring 16" when I got home that night. It fell in about 7 hours from i remember. We probably got a foot between 11am and 3pm along with intense lightning. It was an amazing storm. I've been a fan of weather since I've been able to look out a window. That was a doozy. Remember it well. I was working downtown DC that day IVO the Dept of State Hqs on 23rd st NW. USG closed down late morning. My colleague Tim and I made the mistake of pulling a couple of people out of the parking lot in his Isuzu Trooper. That delay cost us. We skied a lot and had loaded his Trooper up with winter clothes and my logging chain that morning. TG we did... We headed down I-395 past the Pentagon and towards home in Lorton (me) and Woodbridge (him). I-95 around the Pentagon was a parking lot. That night the news said there were over 800 cars abandoned just IVO the Pentagon with pictures of women in high heels walking down Rt-1. We got off I-395 and went through Old Town to take the Mt Vernon Pky South with the chance a round about way would be better. It was about 2pm then and it was coming down in buckets. Got nearly to Mt. Vernon and the Pkwy was closed due to two big pines that lost the battle to the the very wet snow. They had completely blocked all 4 lanes of the pkwy. We bypassed the traffic backup and managed to get to the front of the backup with the Trooper. We commandeered people from their cars and hooked up the logging chain to the tops of the pines and were able to drag the pines enough to reopen one lane in each direction. We had 14 extra people sitting in the Trooper, on top of the roof, on top of each other, in the back, 2 on the hood, and more hanging off the open doors of the Trooper for weight (figured later it well in excess of 3000 lbs of weight). In 4WD and granny gear it worked. Wish I'd had a camera - it was a sight to see with all those people piled all over the Trooper. Everyone was laughing so hard it was comical. The crowd of onlookers in their dresses and suits wondered where on earth my buddy and I came from. They also wanted to know where we were going because they wanted to follow the Trooper with the chain. haha. We went through Ft. Belvoir, got on Rt-1 South and just sat there for over an hour. Finally got over to Newington and onto I-95 South. When we got to the Pohick Road bridge that goes over I-95 I got out, climbed over the fence and clawed my way up the embankment onto Pohick Rd. Turned around only to see about 15 people behind me who liked the idea and followed me up the hill. Everyone helped everyone else because nobody else had the right clothes or shoes on. I walked the last mile home and arrived a little after 6pm. Six+ hours after departing downtown DC. Measured 17" on the flat behind my house. The Mt. Vernon and Ft. Hunt area was bullseye for that one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Great stories. Can you imagine this board if that happened today with some getting 12-17" and areas not far away getting 2-4? Looks like southern MD is gonna get some more heavy rain tonight. Sorry about that Waterworlders! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Ah!! NOTHING brings out that 'fall feeling' like a night time thunderstorm in November... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Just had lightning and Thunder down here just NW of FXBG. Radar looks like it’s about to pour here.... 1.26” so far on the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 48 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: Great stories. Can you imagine this board if that happened today with some getting 12-17" and areas not far away getting 2-4? Looks like southern MD is gonna get some more heavy rain tonight. Sorry about that Waterworlders! Was thinking the same thing as I recalled that event. There were hundreds of people walking down I-395 late that afternoon. Once their cars ran out of gas, they became bipedal again. Once they abandoned their cars, the plows could not get through. Back in 1987, FFCO "only" had about 750,000 people, vice nearly 1.2M today. With not many more roads to handle the load now compared to then, the results now would potentially make commutageddon in Jan 2011 a walk in the park. Here's a good write-up about the story from CWG a few years ago. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/11/10/weathermen-recall-the-record-veterans-day-snowstorm-that-totally-fooled-them-30-years-ago/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 As long as we get THE ONE lone major snow event this Winter on the southside of DC/Baltimore that will be fine. But dang this rain needs to stop. Over an inch already and radar looks heavy for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Very foggy. Just hit the high of the day at 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Well the train tracks are set up once again....central VA through southern MD.....good luck fellow members in Charles, Calvert and St Mary's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 2.06” for the day so far, still raining hard. We’ve had some occasional thunder and lightning as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 1.36" so far here. Muggy tropical feel this afternoon with several torrential downpours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coolio Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Good luck to us all. I'm inside the beltway and Euro shows me getting 5.4" total GFS saying 2.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 2.68" here so far. Looks like another half inch or so today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 2.21” so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 3.81”here so far. Looks like we will go over 4.00” with ease with more rain inbound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 System total 4.04" (2.65" yesterday and 1.39" today) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Purcellville with 1.59"...healthy but not crazy excessive like others 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 9 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Euro gives northern Md snow when? i really need to pay attention to the models more Also, 1.8" as of this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Just over 1.5” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 3.35" storm total, over 60" on the year now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted November 12, 2020 Author Share Posted November 12, 2020 From north and northwest... 9 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Pretty much what I expected here . Lowest total probably in the area lol .97" Note: @losetoa6 is probably over an inch as of this post but not by much. 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Just over 1.5” 34 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Purcellville with 1.59"...healthy but not crazy excessive like others 29 minutes ago, mappy said: when? i really need to pay attention to the models more Also, 1.8" as of this morning To the metros... 1 hour ago, H2O said: 2.21” so far To the south and southeast... 12 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said: 3.35" storm total, over 60" on the year now 1 hour ago, wawarriors4 said: 3.81”here so far. Looks like we will go over 4.00” with ease with more rain inbound 36 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: System total 4.04" (2.65" yesterday and 1.39" today) ... All is in balance. Just how everything is supposed to be in the year we call twenty-twenty. However, everything equals out over time. North and west will get theirs... perhaps in time for winter. Snow and ice will rule the landscape with an icy scepter in the north and west burbs while 33-degree despair inducing rains will fall across the south and east burbs giving Mr. Reaper all-time record high stonks, turning the tides of the optimism of active weather weenies to the north and west. ... OR, we continue this persistence into the winter and @CAPE will get his beach blizzard along with the south and east gang in January with the one good winter event of the season... Yeah that sounds more accurate... REEEEEEEEE! 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 So far 2.16” since yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Looks like about 4" here so far with more on the way. Rivers, creeks and low spots are flooded this morning. Should be in interesting day if I can get more heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 1.95" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 3.67" total so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coolio Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 2.48" with maybe another .5 left in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 2.93” Some really impressive totals out there, >7” north of Richmond. Others above that in NC and then again with landfalling Eta in FL. Very wet day on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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