yoda Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Sounds fun... LWX AFD for Wed to Fri LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A very active long-term period, with many surges of tropical moisture into the region, which could lead to some flooding issues by the end of the week. On Wednesday, a persistent upper-level ridge remains centered over the region. Meanwhile, at the surface, a strong ridge of high pressure remains just off the Carolina coast. Elsewhere though, several additional features will help to bring rain to the region. First, an upper trough well off to the northwest into Canada, which will have an accompanying area of surface low pressure. A cold front will be draped south through the Ohio Valley and slowly move east throughout the day. Second, what is now Tropical Storm Eta will be meandering in the Gulf of Mexico. The surface high off the Carolina coast, paired with this cold front, which extends all the way down into the deep south, will act to funnel in tropical moisture. Could see record setting PWATS (2 inches or more) across the region, as dew points are expected to reach near 70. Lastly an upper level jet will be positioned nearby, putting our area in a favorable synoptic lift zone Wednesday into Thursday. All of this being said, heavy rain is anticipated late Wednesday into Thursday across the region. As is often the case with storms systems with so many moving parts, the exact placement of the heaviest rain is still a bit up in the air, as well as amounts. But it seems plausible that this could be quite the heavy rain event. Additionally, with unusually high dew points and increasing shear and jet dynamics, could see a threat for severe weather. The extent of any thunderstorms and severe threat will be dependent at least in part on how much instability there is, which may be modest. Temperatures remain well above average, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and overnight lows near 60 overnight Wednesday. There may be a brief lull in precipitation Thursday night into early Friday. However, another surge of tropical moisture is expected later Friday into the early part of the weekend. Temperatures on Friday and Saturday likely back closer to normal, with highs back into the 50s. Overnight lows likely remain above average though with the presence of rain and the tropical air mass in place. More significant trough will finally sweep through into early next week, but more on that in the coming days, as details become more clear. This should act to push this air mass out of here, and perhaps be followed by a less active pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 3 hours ago, yoda said: Sounds fun... LWX AFD for Wed to Fri This is super common for *checks notes* November..... lol In a year of crazy weather, the hits keep on coming. Enjoy the rain. Wish we could get some of that over here, but every shortwave cuts to the north and all lift is over AMA. We are hung out to dry...literally. Oof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 42 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Foggy Hopefully more needed rain hits the mark here . Then back to fall weather by early next week it appears. This string of mid 70s days has worn out its welcome. At least get back closer to average. Been foggy here every morning under this massive upper ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Yeah. This prolonged warmth has worn out its welcome. Need a pattern changer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Took a tower down this weekend, felt like working in early Sept. Sheesh, don't remember this kind of warmth in first week of November since 1982. That "Indian Summer" was hot too, I dropped a hollowed out oak and just below where my bar went through was a void with 3 baby squirrels. I'm no fan of the pesky rodents but I could not stop thinking of the sheer terror they must have felt being perhaps 1/2" at best below a chain whipping by at over 60 mph slinging oil around! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted November 9, 2020 Author Share Posted November 9, 2020 Eh. Let it be warm/ slightly humid now. It will get cold enough eventually. Climatology will guarantee that it does EVEN if it remains above average. I'm just soaking it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 And the best way to get rain is leave firewood untarped! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Remember this is the only the first month of our new season: NOVEMBER. We are in November/November. The season of NOVEMBER runs through November/April. We have six months of NOVEMBER ahead of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 What's with all the killer ladybugs? Those suckers bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: Remember this is the only the first month of our new season: NOVEMBER. We are in November/November. The season of NOVEMBER runs through November/April. We have six months of NOVEMBER ahead of us. Probably wont actually feel like November until January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Probably wont actually feel like November until January. This is the well known "summer vestige" portion of NOVEMBER. We will also see this "summer vestige" at times in November/December, November/January/, November/February/, November/March, and November/April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Saint Martin's summer; would use the more familiar Indian summer - if my back yard had experienced a freeze 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 3 hours ago, North Balti Zen said: Remember this is the only the first month of our new season: NOVEMBER. We are in November/November. The season of NOVEMBER runs through November/April. We have six months of NOVEMBER ahead of us. Yeah I call it "the dark" when the trees are bare, no gardening, and it's usually dreary, and snow is very rare most years anyway. I'm going to have to fix that when I retire in 5 years because 5-6 months of dark is way too much. But man is today beautiful! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Up to 77 again here in Purcellville! Crazy streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 66 here after a high of 73. Forecast is for 2-3"of rain here Wed-Thurs. Oh joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 I’m tired of record warmth, but we had two cold November’s with awesome patterns in a row and it netted me 1.5” of snow. Both then flipped to raging December torches. Looks like we at least get semi-seasonal starting this weekend. The pattern doesn’t show much sign of changing, but I’m not sweating that until early-mid December at least. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’m tired of record warmth, but we had two cold November’s with awesome patterns in a row and it netted me 1.5” of snow. Both then flipped to raging December torches. Looks like we at least get semi-seasonal starting this weekend. The pattern doesn’t show much sign of changing, but I’m not sweating that until early-mid December at least. Just a WAG, but based on the current climate models. extended GEFS(and I will throw in the most recent 2 Nina winters), Jan may be our best shot at some legit cold chances with a possibility to time something. Given the SPV state and the QBO trend, hard to be enthused about any real help in the AO/NAO regions, beyond some transient ridging passing through the NAO domain that probably won't help at all. CFS has been consistent with a -EPO for at least part of Jan, and that may be our best opportunity for some decent cold air delivery at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A777 Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 While Dulles can't get its latest first freeze, its about to break the record for latest first <=29 temp (November 12). Also looks like BWI will break its record for latest first freeze (November 17th) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 if it wasn't for cool nights I'd be tempted to run the a/c the last couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 I am just gonna say the weather has been perfect the past couple of days. Warm days and cool nights rock. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted November 10, 2020 Author Share Posted November 10, 2020 IAD has gotten up to 76F now breaking the record of 75F for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 BWI has broken its record high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 Hit 77 for the 4th day in a row! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted November 10, 2020 Author Share Posted November 10, 2020 IAD has hit 77F now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 And man 90 minutes after sunset temp has dropped 10-15 degrees. From 75 to 55 in 4-5 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 9 hours ago, H2O said: if it wasn't for cool nights I'd be tempted to run the a/c the last couple days yeah. its been a little muggy in the afternoons. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 51 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: DC to Baltimore special per 3knam tomorrow and Thursday. 3-6" . Imby much less Lol oh NAM. Euro evens things out with 1.5-2” everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 Records at all three sites with DCA as a tie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 Record highs after record high. Open the pools back up on January 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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