WestMichigan Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: Well, I looked, and I'm not sure. Some critical differences exist in the thermal profiles between the NAM and GFS. I tend to think the GFS is a little too warm and would not be surprised to see band of wet snow running through here or nearby, but certainly not willing to go all-in on the NAM. Best advice you'll ever see regarding the upcoming winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 16 minutes ago, WestMichigan said: Best advice you'll ever see regarding the upcoming winter. Blasphemy. The NAM is always the answer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 20, 2020 Author Share Posted November 20, 2020 16 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: 10:1 map... @Chicago Storm is going to have to go on his rant again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Definitely getting a little excited for Sun night-Mon for our first potential snow event of the season. As it stands now, areas close to the Lake will likely remain as rain with some mixing possible. Just away from the Lake is where it gets tricky. Upper air temps (700mb and 850mb) look to stay below freezing as a cold HP moves in tomorrow and funnels a cold NE wind out ahead of the impending WAA from the LP. That means there will be heavy precip rates at the height of the storm. The tricky part is the sfc temps which will likely be around freezing if not slightly above. We'll have to see if dynamic cooling can help us out but that's strictly from an observational standpoint. Quicker dynamic cooling means the GTA will see ~2-3" (4-7cm) and slower means ~1" (1-3cm). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Janky fallstreak from earlier 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Wow things are really about to start amping up here aren't they? Euro shows potential winter shot for the Great Lakes this weekend & then severe weather in the South on Wednesday-Thanksgiving 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 LOT mentioned some wet snow accumulations possible especially south of I-80. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 IWX is liking a stripe of up to 2" across Northern IN early Sunday. I could see my first accumulating snow of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Then there's the NAM with a 6" bullseye right over my house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 wheres Hillsdale... Thats IHBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 With a look like this I think this threat is legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 Feels nice to look at a wintry system again. That one in Iowa last month was a sneak attack so couldn't really get into it ahead of time. Looking at NAM forecast soundings in the changeover zone, there is not much room for error as there is a several thousand foot thick isothermal layer just below 0C. If it ends up a little warmer, then it's mainly rain with some wet snow mixed in during heavy precip. My gut feeling is that the GFS is too warm, and it's not like I have much of a personal stake in it as the main action looks to be south of here. Precip rates look pretty good, so I am leaning more toward the NAM solution. The sun angle is not really an issue in late November, but the setup is so marginal to begin with that I do wonder how well it will accumulate during the daytime on Sunday. All that being said, I'm feeling a bit bullish and will go with 2-5" in the main band, mainly on grassy/elevated surfaces. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 Growing confident for tomorrows event. There seems to be a model wide consensus regarding amounts for Toronto and surrounding areas. Those near the Lake accumulations will likely remain <1" (~3cm). But as you get away from the Lake towards the 401 and further north, accumulations will pick up drastically. As it stands now, I'm going with 2.5" (4-6cm) for Toronto (YYZ) and upwards of 4-6" (10-15cm) for areas in Vaughan, Brampton and further north. If dynamic cooling initiates earlier and quicker, then there's a good chance Toronto could over perform. EC has issued widespread weather statements. 2-4" (5-10cm) for Toronto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitchener poster Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 18 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Growing confident for tomorrows event. There seems to be a model wide consensus regarding amounts for Toronto and surrounding areas. Those near the Lake accumulations will likely remain <1" (~3cm). But as you get away from the Lake towards the 401 and further north, accumulations will pick up drastically. As it stands now, I'm going with 2.5" (4-6cm) for Toronto (YYZ) and upwards of 4-6" (10-15cm) for areas in Vaughan, Brampton and further north. If dynamic cooling initiates earlier and quicker, then there's a good chance Toronto could over perform. EC has issued widespread weather statements. 2-4" (5-10cm) for Toronto 5-10 cm was the same for KW. I’m thinking we have a chance to over perform that by a hair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Kitchener poster said: 5-10 cm was the same for KW. I’m thinking we have a chance to over perform that by a hair. I think Kitchener could get 10-15cm. Higher elevation and more dynamic cooling. You'll be in the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2020 Share Posted November 22, 2020 Somebody, anybody might want to issue a winter weather advisory. Then again it's a Sunday and magnitude of ground impacts are a bit uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 22, 2020 Share Posted November 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Somebody, anybody might want to issue a winter weather advisory. Then again it's a Sunday and magnitude of ground impacts are a bit uncertain. I am wondering if this is going to be similar to the April 17th snow event. With it being early in the season I could see it going either way. DTX is being very conservative and they may be right, or it could absolutely pour snow and they could totally bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2020 Share Posted November 22, 2020 13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I am wondering if this is going to be similar to the April 17th snow event. With it being early in the season I could see it going either way. DTX is being very conservative and they may be right, or it could absolutely pour snow and they could totally bust. Put me in the pour snow camp. Precip rates look pretty good overall and have some banding potential for even heavier rates. Ideally it could be a little colder but I think it's good enough for a band of 2-5" from IWX to DTX areas of responsibility. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2020 Share Posted November 22, 2020 Barring something strange, first measurable snow of the season looks likely at ORD on Tuesday. Should have been last month, but I digress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 22, 2020 Share Posted November 22, 2020 Somebody, anybody might want to issue a winter weather advisory. Then again it's a Sunday and magnitude of ground impacts are a bit uncertain.Consensus seems very strong that ground impacts will dominate here. I’m iffy on that however, so many times with such short days it seems as though it only takes a few minutes to begin accumulation. One forecast I saw mentioned that NE winds off the Lake could hurt snow chances in that band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 22, 2020 Share Posted November 22, 2020 Looks like a period of snow very early Tuesday morning here, before switching to cold rain. Wish the timing was different, as I likely won't see any of it fall. The rains that fall afterwards will be nice, as we can definitely use the moisture. Euro shows over an inch to fall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2020 Share Posted November 22, 2020 46 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Consensus seems very strong that ground impacts will dominate here. I’m iffy on that however, so many times with such short days it seems as though it only takes a few minutes to begin accumulation. One forecast I saw mentioned that NE winds off the Lake could hurt snow chances in that band Definitely a chance that the roads in general get sloppy, not just the bridges/overpasses, especially in the heavier precip. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted November 22, 2020 Share Posted November 22, 2020 Ugh, it's that time of the year I'm getting jealous! Nice snow headed for SEMI. No doubt I would be driving around in it if I were in town. Looks like a nice 3-4 inches of snow! Hopefully this bodes well for when I come up for the winter in Mid Dec. (I do things backwards from most people :)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 22, 2020 Share Posted November 22, 2020 looks like a nice early season hit for SE MI really liking the active look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted November 22, 2020 Share Posted November 22, 2020 Perhaps the SE MI magnet is back! It only played out like this because no one created a storm thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted November 22, 2020 Share Posted November 22, 2020 Took the dog out to a surprise 3/4” accumulation overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 22, 2020 Share Posted November 22, 2020 should see a brief DAB to DAB+ early tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 22, 2020 Share Posted November 22, 2020 My first measurable snowfall of the winter is 0.3" of sleet. It must be 2020. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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