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November 2020 General Discussion


SchaumburgStormer
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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Well, I looked, and I'm not sure.  Some critical differences exist in the thermal profiles between the NAM and GFS.  I tend to think the GFS is a little too warm and would not be surprised to see band of wet snow running through here or nearby, but certainly not willing to go all-in on the NAM.  

Best advice you'll ever see regarding the upcoming winter.

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Definitely getting a little excited for Sun night-Mon for our first potential snow event of the season. As it stands now, areas close to the Lake will likely remain as rain with some mixing possible. Just away from the Lake is where it gets tricky. Upper air temps (700mb and 850mb) look to stay below freezing as a cold HP moves in tomorrow and funnels a cold NE wind out ahead of the impending WAA from the LP. That means there will be heavy precip rates at the height of the storm. The tricky part is the sfc temps which will likely be around freezing if not slightly above. We'll have to see if dynamic cooling can help us out but that's strictly from an observational standpoint. Quicker dynamic cooling means the GTA will see ~2-3" (4-7cm) and slower means ~1" (1-3cm). 

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Feels nice to look at a wintry system again.  That one in Iowa last month was a sneak attack so couldn't really get into it ahead of time.

Looking at NAM forecast soundings in the changeover zone, there is not much room for error as there is a several thousand foot thick isothermal layer just below 0C.  If it ends up a little warmer, then it's mainly rain with some wet snow mixed in during heavy precip.

My gut feeling is that the GFS is too warm, and it's not like I have much of a personal stake in it as the main action looks to be south of here.  Precip rates look pretty good, so I am leaning more toward the NAM solution.  The sun angle is not really an issue in late November, but the setup is so marginal to begin with that I do wonder how well it will accumulate during the daytime on Sunday.  All that being said, I'm feeling a bit bullish and will go with 2-5" in the main band, mainly on grassy/elevated surfaces.

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 Growing confident for tomorrows event. There seems to be a model wide consensus regarding amounts for Toronto and surrounding areas. Those near the Lake accumulations will likely remain <1" (~3cm). But as you get away from the Lake towards the 401 and further north, accumulations will pick up drastically. As it stands now, I'm going with 2.5" (4-6cm) for Toronto (YYZ) and upwards of 4-6" (10-15cm) for areas in Vaughan, Brampton and further north. If dynamic cooling initiates earlier and quicker, then there's a good chance Toronto could over perform.

EC has issued widespread weather statements. 2-4" (5-10cm) for Toronto

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18 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

 Growing confident for tomorrows event. There seems to be a model wide consensus regarding amounts for Toronto and surrounding areas. Those near the Lake accumulations will likely remain <1" (~3cm). But as you get away from the Lake towards the 401 and further north, accumulations will pick up drastically. As it stands now, I'm going with 2.5" (4-6cm) for Toronto (YYZ) and upwards of 4-6" (10-15cm) for areas in Vaughan, Brampton and further north. If dynamic cooling initiates earlier and quicker, then there's a good chance Toronto could over perform.

EC has issued widespread weather statements. 2-4" (5-10cm) for Toronto

5-10 cm was the same for KW. I’m thinking we have a chance to over perform that by a hair. 

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Somebody, anybody might want to issue a winter weather advisory.  Then again it's a Sunday and magnitude of ground impacts are a bit uncertain.

 I am wondering if this is going to be similar to the April 17th snow event. With it being early in the season I could see it going either way. DTX is being very conservative and they may be right, or it could absolutely pour snow and they could totally bust.

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13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 I am wondering if this is going to be similar to the April 17th snow event. With it being early in the season I could see it going either way. DTX is being very conservative and they may be right, or it could absolutely pour snow and they could totally bust.

Put me in the pour snow camp.  Precip rates look pretty good overall and have some banding potential for even heavier rates.  Ideally it could be a little colder but I think it's good enough for a band of 2-5" from IWX to DTX areas of responsibility.

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Somebody, anybody might want to issue a winter weather advisory.  Then again it's a Sunday and magnitude of ground impacts are a bit uncertain.

Consensus seems very strong that ground impacts will dominate here. I’m iffy on that however, so many times with such short days it seems as though it only takes a few minutes to begin accumulation.

One forecast I saw mentioned that NE winds off the Lake could hurt snow chances in that band
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46 minutes ago, nwohweather said:


Consensus seems very strong that ground impacts will dominate here. I’m iffy on that however, so many times with such short days it seems as though it only takes a few minutes to begin accumulation.

One forecast I saw mentioned that NE winds off the Lake could hurt snow chances in that band

Definitely a chance that the roads in general get sloppy, not just the bridges/overpasses, especially in the heavier precip.

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