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November 2020 General Discussion


SchaumburgStormer
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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

If things go as they may the next few days, this stretch will be very comparable to Morch 2012.

Don't toy with my heart like that!! I don't think its comparable to the ultimate (I pray it ends up being anyways), but more like the Dec 2015 heat event which at first I thought would edge this out, but now I'm putting this in front of it. My avg temp during this part of Nov is 7ºC so I'm getting +13-14C departures.

Sitting at 21C now, sensor may be wonky.

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On 11/6/2020 at 4:37 PM, fluoronium said:

I'm astonished how nice the weather has been! A well needed slice of heaven in an otherwise terrible year. Haven't broken any daily records here yet but the duration of this warmth is impressive to say the least. That topped with bright sunshine is hard to beat.

The only thing that would make it better would be finishing off this warm spell with a nice fall severe setup.

Not happening. Instability will be too weak on Tuesday. 2013 this ain't.

131117_rpts.png

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17 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I would be delighted to be proven wrong, but I'm just not seeing anything to pique my interest 4 days out.

Agree.  The wind fields and at least a little skinny CAPE should allow for a lower end/marginal risk type setup, but the threat would be substantially more robust with just a bit better mid level lapse rates and surface heating.

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I was outside doing some yard work today and actually worked up a sweat.

IND hit 79°, beating their old record of 76°.
FWA not only set a record, they crushed the old one.

RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
440 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2020

...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT FORT WAYNE...
...RECORD WARMTH SO LATE IN THE SEASON...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN SET TODAY AT FORT WAYNE.  THE 
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 78 DEGREES WAS SET AT 257 PM EST.  THE PREVIOUS 
RECORD WAS 73 DEGREES SET IN 1915. 

THIS IS ALSO THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE RECORDED SO LATE IN THE SEASON. 
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 78 DEGREES SET ON NOVEMBER 6, 1975.
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48 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I was outside doing some yard work today and actually worked up a sweat.

IND hit 79°, beating their old record of 76°.
FWA not only set a record, they crushed the old one.

RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
440 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2020

...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT FORT WAYNE...
...RECORD WARMTH SO LATE IN THE SEASON...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN SET TODAY AT FORT WAYNE.  THE 
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 78 DEGREES WAS SET AT 257 PM EST.  THE PREVIOUS 
RECORD WAS 73 DEGREES SET IN 1915. 

THIS IS ALSO THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE RECORDED SO LATE IN THE SEASON. 
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 78 DEGREES SET ON NOVEMBER 6, 1975.

Wow

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*Severe weather is possible Tuesday*

Relatively good agreement amongst models on cold frontal passage
late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Shear will not be an issue as
ample low level and deep layer shear will be present. As is
typical for transition season events, especially those
transitioning into the cool season, instability may be the
limiting factor. Even in the presence of only weak instability
however, strong dynamics may be enough to force a shallow
convective line along the front with an attendant damaging wind
threat. The area is not currently outlooked but would not be
surprised to see the risk area shift eastward in subsequent
updates. CIPS severe analog risk percentages continue to increase
and have shifted further toward the area in the last 24 hours.
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53 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

*Severe weather is possible Tuesday*


Relatively good agreement amongst models on cold frontal passage
late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Shear will not be an issue as
ample low level and deep layer shear will be present. As is
typical for transition season events, especially those
transitioning into the cool season, instability may be the
limiting factor. Even in the presence of only weak instability
however, strong dynamics may be enough to force a shallow
convective line along the front with an attendant damaging wind
threat. The area is not currently outlooked but would not be
surprised to see the risk area shift eastward in subsequent
updates. CIPS severe analog risk percentages continue to increase
and have shifted further toward the area in the last 24 hours.

Not bad

20201108_184013.jpg

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592
SXUS71 KILN 082204
RERDAY

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
504 PM EST SUN NOV 08 2020

...RECORD MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT DAYTON OH...
...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES SET AT DAYTON OH...

A RECORD MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80 WAS SET AT DAYTON OH TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 79 MOST RECENTLY SET IN 2016.

A RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80 WAS SET AT DAYTON OH TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 75 SET IN 1945.

THE 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURE IS ALSO THE LATEST OBSERVATION OF 80
DEGREES OR WARMER FOR THE CALENDAR YEAR. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF
OCTOBER 31, WAS MOST RECENTLY SET IN 1950.

First time we ever hit 80 in November

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4 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Cold front has blasted its way through. Temps have dropped ~15 degrees in the past hour and change. 
 

Hi-Res models are beginning to come into focus on tomorrow’s snow and the totals are becoming more robust. Might end up more like a 2-4” event around here or somewhere close by.

Pretty good signal for TSSN and/or TSPL with the deepening lows passing by too. Heck of a way to end a warm spell. 

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