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November 2020 General Discussion


SchaumburgStormer
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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Severe weather?  What is this concept that you speak of? :P

The question that jumps out at me right away is whether moisture return would be sufficient.  Looks like a fairly typical dynamic system for this time of year though.

Averaging the four major globals would put dew points near 60F w/ PWATs well over 1". More than enough w/ those dynamics in November. Having the high where it is and the tropical in the Gulf could actually be a good thing in that an indirect feed of moisture (from the Atlantic rather than the Gulf) won't allow for widespread low clouds to reduce the chances of heating up ahead of the front.

models-2020110512-f126.sfctd.conus.gif.c780b7fb88268d2eb4a3214671f9b542.gif

To me, the more likely thing that could go wrong is that the Rockies energy ejects in pieces, in a positively tilted junk way that doesn't allow for a more consolidated, deepening low. Some guidance still hints at that scenario. 

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I'm pretty sure that Dayton is socked in with clouds and 49°. 

Meanwhile, it is a sunny 71 locally. Later, I'm going to dig up the number of 70 degree and above days for November at FWA and SBN. I'm guessing that this year will bump up against the records. 

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I'm astonished how nice the weather has been! A well needed slice of heaven in an otherwise terrible year. Haven't broken any daily records here yet but the duration of this warmth is impressive to say the least. That topped with bright sunshine is hard to beat.

The only thing that would make it better would be finishing off this warm spell with a nice fall severe setup.

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The same Eta that made landfall way down in Nicaragua as a category 4.  Why not, because 2020

 

Sure, why not. Elections, critters, and weather (ECW for short). Seems I remember a wrestling franchise like that, which was rather wild. Seems to fit. :)

Oh, and BTW, I don't see 2021 being boring either. At least in the weather dept.

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9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That has to be record breaking up there? Like all time November temp breaking? 

Yeah it was in a few places.  MQT is going to provide a full list of records today.  I have to say, this is very enjoyable.  It's nice wearing only shorts outside as we near mid-nov.

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1 hour ago, weatherbo said:

Oh the ways we're going to pay for this!

That's what I thought in Dec 2011, we never did end up paying for it but instead got a gift in March.

My rule of thumb for this week has been to add 3ºC to whatever my TWN daily high is forecast and so far its been 2/3, my high for today is bumped by 1C, so another 2C to go.

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1 hour ago, Torchageddon said:

That's what I thought in Dec 2011, we never did end up paying for it but instead got a gift in March.

My rule of thumb for this week has been to add 3ºC to whatever my TWN daily high is forecast and so far its been 2/3, my high for today is bumped by 1C, so another 2C to go.

Guess I’m speaking for the upper lakes mostly. Lake Superior Water temp is forecast to rise over the next 10 days. Will lead to very heavy snow here in the weeks to come.

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4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

If things go as they may the next few days, this stretch will be very comparable to Morch 2012.


.

Doesn't feel like it... probably because it hasn't been in the 80s like March 2012.  Will be interesting to see how it ends up comparing in a relative sense.

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