SnowLover22 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 maybe the "next" recon mission will be the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 A 1 out of 4 recon success rate over the past 24 hours is pretty inexcusable. Especially when these flights cost pennies on the dollar for the government to run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 I did a facepalm when I saw recon was departing from MS not Miami, then when I realized recon returning wasn't a joke I facepalmed myself into a meme. I think this might be tops. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 The clouds filling the eye was temporary. Eta now looks about as good as it ever has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 16 minutes ago, Prospero said: Is this not kind of the trend for science this year? Deny facts, discourage data, ignore science? We'll just learn to live with bigger stronger more unpredictable hurricanes. Why not? Right? Can't have climate change when you ignore the existence of the climate 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Just now, hawkeye_wx said: The clouds filling the eye was temporary. Eta now looks about as good as it ever has. Yeah. If it was going through an ERC a more perfectly round and stable looking eye seems to be emerging. It’s still hella small though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Lol, we don't know what the issue is. It could be an instrument failure, it could be that someone on the crew came down with covid and the entire crew had to quarantine and they had to clean the plane. We *don't* know what the cause was. Flights are not cheap...so, no, it's a big cost, but that isn't the point. The pentagon has basically unlimited money so the problem here is not financial. They have flown a ton of missions this year into tons of storms. I used to study aviation bc I wanted to be a pilot. I can say with certainty that while aircraft are designed to handle weather, they aren't designed to fly regularly through strong hurricane eyewalls. Stuff breaks. Maybe the dropsonde mechanism failed. They did a dropsonde test shortly after getting over the water and right after they turned around. That's not normal. The mslp data stopped reporting after around 45 minutes, maybe that sensor failed. They could have had an engine failure, a pressurization failure, a warning indicator in the cockpit. Point is: a lot of stuff can happen. If the crew's safety is at risk, or the mission can't measure something it needs, they can't go. It isn't monetarily related and it isn't because they aren't trying. There are only so many crews to do these flights--they can't have everyone on duty at one time because then, no one would be available for the next flight. That said, at this point, if I were the nhc, I would call up a noaa plane if I could. I'm not them though and I'm confident they have good reasons. Remember that most places in the world don't get a flight into the eye...they just get satellite imagery and have to guess. We're spoiled in the atlantic. No one flew into Goni or Haiyan, yet somehow scientists were able to estimate the winds anyway. I know some of the experts in this field...they're good at what they do, and I trust them with or without a plane. I just *want* a plane because it would be helpful for storm structure, model guidance, track guidance, and pure weenie-ness. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 This is from the "Sandwich" view. I have no idea what that is. It is the only view I see that has anything weird in this otherwise perfect storm. Clusters of bright red spots in a dark spiral. What is the meteorological description of this phenomenon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 This is the best storm presentation this season, I can say that. 7 minutes ago, Prospero said: This is from the "Sandwich" view. I have no idea what that is. It is the only view I see that has anything weird in this otherwise perfect storm. Clusters of bright red spots in a dark spiral. What is the meteorological description of this phenomenon? Sandwich info: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/documents/SandwichProduct.pdf Summary: -It is a "sandwich" of both visible + IR imagery. It is useful during the daytime. -It allows you to better visualize both the top, and lower layers, of a storm rather than just one or the other. Edit: Answer to your question: As with any other temp-based IR, different colors correspond to different cloud temperatures, and thus heights and intensities of updrafts. As you know, hurricanes are collections of tstorms. So, you have a few regions which will overshoot the others. Perfectly normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Relax people, life will go on if a recon doesn't get into the storm before landfall. It's not like we don't know where it's going, and that it's probably going to be a shitshow on the ground underneath where it makes landfall. It's also not like a few missing recon missions will crush future research efforts into TCs. So relax.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said: This is the best storm presentation this season, I can say that. Sandwich info: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/documents/SandwichProduct.pdf Thank you! Interesting! So the bright red spots are little "cold" spots in the storm. Curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, Prospero said: This is from the "Sandwich" view. I have no idea what that is. It is the only view I see that has anything weird in this otherwise perfect storm. Clusters of bright red spots in a dark spiral. What is the meteorological description of this phenomenon? Those are just extreme thunderstorms with very high tops 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: Relax people, life will go on if a recon doesn't get into the storm before landfall. It's not like we don't know where it's going, and that it's probably going to be a shitshow on the ground underneath where it makes landfall. It's also not like a few missing recon missions will crush future research efforts into TCs. So relax.... I think everyone wants to know the true intensity etc though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, Prospero said: This is from the "Sandwich" view. I have no idea what that is. It is the only view I see that has anything weird in this otherwise perfect storm. Clusters of bright red spots in a dark spiral. What is the meteorological description of this phenomenon? Hoping the eye will warm a little more. It can do better than -55c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 I wish there was a button for "concur" or "this is the correct answer". Like I feel like the trophy does that but it says thanks. There's no, "yeah that" button. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 minute ago, eyewall said: I think everyone wants to know the true intensity etc though. Right, i mean even I do. But people on this forum act like it's a massive travesty to science and forecasting that is going to cost lives. In reality, it's just a weenie travesty. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Eh, I don't think most people based on what I've read the last few pages think it's a life-threatening situation to lack the plane. I think most folks, understandably, want one. I *do* think it's more than weenie-ness: those flights are actually quite useful to the nhc, and for our models to provide better forecasts, so they aren't just for fun, but I think all of us think this is the strongest storm of the season and as such, we want to know if it'll make cat 5, or where it is as a cat 4. Wilma had a 9 mile eye that contracted down to 2 nm at peak strength. I did see a couple comments talking about scientific research and you're right...research won't be adversely impacted. Obviously it will be if someone was going to do a case study of this particular storm but not in the grand scheme of hurricane research. To explain the sandwich thing a bit more, @Prospero, when you get into the land of crazy measurements, either with radar or satellite, you eventually run off the end of the color scale. That's what you're seeing there basically. Those are actually overshooting -90 or colder tops. You can overlay lightning on them at weathernerds.org to confirm that. Remember that lightning indicates charge separation, frozen water droplets, and strong updrafts...things you see in strong tstorm cells. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Edit: Sandwich animation 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Prospero said: You can stare at this all day but I see the collapse of a nano sized eyewall and the emergence of merely a micro sized eyewall. But maybe that’s just me seeing what I want to see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: You can stare at this all day but I see the collapse of a nano sized eyewall and the emergence of merely a micro sized eyewall. But maybe that’s just me seeing what I want to see... Crazy thing is, I could stare at that all day. Edit; This better though... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-sandwich-200-0-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Is someone eventually going to start a banter thread for this storm so we can talk about exactly when it heads for Louisiana? Seriously though I am concerned about the flooding potential in Honduras with this. When they mention 25 and possibly up to 35 inches of rainfall I get flashbacks to Mitch. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Ok, I'll admit it. No recon sucks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 I am racking my head trying to think about how to best communicate risk with people in Nicaragua. This is going to be a horrific disaster. There's just so much going on right now that it's probably not going to make the news and thus get the donations and aid they will need. Also it looks like everyone forgot about Felix vis a vis strongest landfalls. Governor Saavedra has just issued the following tweet: José Daniel Ortega Saavedra @DanielOrtegasa · 24m #Urgente El huracán ETA solo va a afectar a los puchitos. No vamos a declarar alerta nacional. Es solo agua y viento y el país no se puede parar, hay que activar la economía. Ya las 317 personas que iban a ser evacuadas lo fueron. Nadie corre peligro. Translating: 24m #Urgent Hurricane ETA is only going to affect a small number of people (literal translation: small people). We are not going to declare a national alert. It is only water and wind and the country cannot be stopped, the economy must remain active. The 317 people who were to be evacuated have been. No one is in danger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 ADT continues to show intensification. ADTv9 is at 5.4 at 21:20Z ADTv8 is at 5.8 at 21:00Z And based on the satellite presentation in the last hour I would not be surprised to see another tick up on these T numbers with the next update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warwick WX Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Just now, Moderately Unstable said: I am racking my head trying to think about how to best communicate risk with people in Nicaragua. This is going to be a horrific disaster. There's just so much going on right now that it's probably not going to make the news and thus get the donations and aid they will need. Also it looks like everyone forgot about Felix vis a vis strongest landfalls. Governor Ortega has just issued the following tweet: José Daniel Ortega Saavedra @DanielOrtegasa · 24m #Urgente El huracán ETA solo va a afectar a los puchitos. No vamos a declarar alerta nacional. Es solo agua y viento y el país no se puede parar, hay que activar la economía. Ya las 317 personas que iban a ser evacuadas lo fueron. Nadie corre peligro. Translating: 24m #Urgente Hurricane ETA is only going to affect the puchitos. We are not going to declare a national alert. It is only water and wind and the country cannot be stopped, the economy must remain active. The 317 people who were to be evacuated have been. No one is in danger. Great, Baghdad Bob is now in Nicaragua. Just what we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 You're right it doesn't technically matter if we know the true strength but I am very curious. Pretty confident it's stronger than what the 4pm forecast stated. Hopefully we can get a recon in there before it landfalls and weakens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Today's recon planes were not going to tell us much we don't already know. No lives in Nicaragua will be saved/lost because recon finds, or doesn't find, the exact pressure. It's just a major bummer, as weather/science geeks, we aren't getting the exact details for one of the two best storms of the year, especially one with a pinhole eye that makes it more difficult to guess the exact strength. This latest recon, which flew into the gulf but then turned around, would have been into the storm this evening during peak intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 I direct hit on the only population center in the area would be unfortunately, luckily not a whole lot of other population centers in that area. Hopefully most of the fain falls in the swamps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Today's recon planes were not going to tell us much we don't already know. No lives in Nicaragua will be saved/lost because recon finds, or doesn't find, the exact pressure. It's just a major bummer, as weather/science geeks, we aren't getting the exact details for one of the two best storms of the year, especially one with a pinhole eye that makes it more difficult to guess the exact strength. This latest recon, which flew into the gulf but then turned around, would have been into the storm this evening during peak intensity. So are we now not going to get an actual data now before landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 ETA made a big turn to the south the last few hours. Not making much progress towards the coast at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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