Orangeburgwx Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Recon in route, eta a few hours Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Quote Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm). These are some scary rainfall amounts, especially for Honduras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 The eye is filling with clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 2, 2020 Author Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 2, 2020 Author Share Posted November 2, 2020 Unsure if fill or just high debris from anvil spill over of that W eyewall. Also it may be continuing to contract into a pinhole. At any rate, it's horribly disappointing we don't have recon to verify what may be one of the fastest periods of intensification we've seen this late in the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 One interesting trend I am seeing today is this is diving southward further east. Not sure if it has any implications on future track (perhaps a pro met / knowledgeable poster can chime in) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 2, 2020 Author Share Posted November 2, 2020 Recon AF305 has taken off and is en route. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Recon AF305 has taken off and is en route. Unfortunately from MS and not Miami, where it could get down to the storm much quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’d like to see this chart but only storms where we have in situ observations at both beginning and end. Because it seems to me this record keeps being broken by storms with estimated values at one end or the other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Honestly looks kinda like an ERC has not only begun, but is well on it's way to completion. Explains why the eye is getting larger but not clearing out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 As I said a few hours ago, lots of lightning can signal an ERC. This is a small eye. Look at the cloud tops outside the eye, see the secondary eye there? The guidance yesterday suggested an erc could happen. If an erc occurs, the storm will re-strengthen again. ERCs take several hours usually to complete. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 23 minutes ago, Normandy said: One interesting trend I am seeing today is this is diving southward further east. Not sure if it has any implications on future track (perhaps a pro met / knowledgeable poster can chime in) Some models have shown a south dive and stall, or even a lift back north a hair, before once again turning west into Central America. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Seems likely that we missed peak intensity. Will still be interesting to see what recon shows but disappointing that we may never know the true extent of the rapid deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 2, 2020 Author Share Posted November 2, 2020 NSFW... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, MUWX said: Seems likely that we missed peak intensity. Will still be interesting to see what recon shows but disappointing that we may never know the true extent of the rapid deepening. It isn't weakening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 You've gotta be f'ing kidding me. The recon plane just turned around and is heading back to the US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 minute ago, BYG Jacob said: It isn't weakening Tomer, who is frequently linked here from twitter and is well respected, also agrees that it may be past its peak so it’s not exactly a hot take that it has come down somewhat from where it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Just now, MUWX said: Tomer, who is frequently linked here from twitter and is well respected, also agrees that it may be past its peak so it’s not exactly a hot take that it has come down somewhat from where it was. I don't care what Tomer thinks, it pretty clearly isn't weakening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Just now, BYG Jacob said: I don't care what Tomer thinks, it pretty clearly isn't weakening. There’s substantial evidence that the eye has cooled over the past couple of hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 NHC has 130 mph for the 4pm EST advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Just now, MUWX said: There’s substantial evidence that the eye has cooled over the past couple of hours As we all know, satellites are amazing at resolving such tiny eyes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: You've gotta be f'ing kidding me. The recon plane just turned around and is heading back to the US. "Sorry, you cannot be here now, we are doing super-secret s*** and nobody can know." Just kidding.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Tomer is the guy who got drunk off of one beer at AMS, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioWX Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Oy vey! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 5 hours ago, Moderately Unstable said: You're right, but the storm has 24+ hours to go. They have 4 flights scheduled not all with the same division. There is a 0% chance of not having another plane in before landfall. I know what you mean in terms of hoping they don't have more tech issues--I am in the same camp. More just saying, it would be absolutely shocking if they didn't actually send another one in. Nhc would ask noaa hunters and air force to go at same time so that if one had an issue we still got the data. Chances seems substantially higher than 0% now. The issues with recon this year are beyond frustrating. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 I’m sure Ryan Maue will make sure recon is funded better in the future. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 The loss of recon at the key moment is terrible and certainly bad for future research efforts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Yeah, I am frustrated as well. I used to know Tomer. Smart kid. God I miss having potential. Anyways, I agree that the pattern of issues we've had recently with recon is disappointing. Smh. Also I did mention earlier that the moment this thing looked worse than perfect we'd have posters on here saying it's over. And wham bam they are. Could it be? Sure. Does that make ANY sense based on physics? No. Not at all. ERCs are common. Intensity fluctuations are common. The storm has a long time to go, and the *trend* given the environment is *up*. I do think we missed out on a potential historic data point by missing an in situ measurement. The lack of aircraft data is killing me. This storm isn't going to weaken any time soon. Don't worry folks, there's plenty of time to be excited by good appearances and then worried when it looks worse again for another 18 hours or so *grabs popcorn*. Edit: can someone ask the NOAA hurricane hunters to give it a go? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Just now, eyewall said: The loss of recon at the key moment is terrible and certainly bad for future research efforts. Is this not kind of the trend for science this year? Deny facts, discourage data, ignore science? We'll just learn to live with bigger stronger more unpredictable hurricanes. Why not? Right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 8 minutes ago, MUWX said: Chances seems substantially higher than 0% now. The issues with recon this year are beyond frustrating. This reminds me of flying American Airlines. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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