NorthHillsWx Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 WPAC or Caribbean on 11/2??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 This isn’t 2006. Stop using the NHC floaters and use tropical tidbits. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 I agree on appearing a bit like a WPAC storm. When I yesterday made the remark about the western band I did so because of Goni and Haiyan, both of which sported such a feature as they strengthened. The structure does sort of remind me more of a super typhoon than your classic Atlantic hurricane which is interesting. Today's structure is solid and very impressive, the 140mph peak the nhc just released seems likely to verify. I'm glad it may landfall in a sparsely populated area. I got a bit of a laugh over whomever reduced the peak intensity forecast last night after Stewart's and then the probable "oh crap" moment this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: This isn’t 2006. Stop using the NHC floaters and use tropical tidbits. The other hot trick is to keep storm2k open in a tab. Their threads move much quicker and every satellite shot you could ever want is posted there because that’s all those people know how to do. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 raw T up to 6.9, up from ~ 5.0, over the course of an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Too bad the current recon plane left, hopefully another one will get in there before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 It appears that the issue is with the feed itself, goes 16 meso 1. Hence not an issue with where you get the feed, it is the feed. On a creepy note it appears to be centered on my location now. HIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII. Yes, another plane will be arriving soon. They post the plan of day you know. Search Google. Nhc plan of the day. They say when they're launching the planes. What a beautiful storm structure. Stuff like this can hold my attention for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 11 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: raw T up to 6.9, up from ~ 5.0, over the course of an hour. Just silly deepening at the moment. These small core canes can really impress when everything aligns. May go from cat 1 to cat 4 between the 7 am and the 1 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said: It appears that the issue is with the feed itself, goes 16 meso 1, rather than with the storm floater. Hence not an issue with where you get the feed, it is the feed. On a creepy note it appears to be centered on my location now. HIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII. Yes, another plane will be arriving soon. They post the plan of day you know. Search Google. Nhc plan of the day. They say when they're launching the planes. What a beautiful storm structure. Stuff like this can hold my attention for hours. I realize that, but there have been some recent issues with planes turning around etc so keeping my fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 You're right, but the storm has 24+ hours to go. They have 4 flights scheduled not all with the same division. There is a 0% chance of not having another plane in before landfall. I know what you mean in terms of hoping they don't have more tech issues--I am in the same camp. More just saying, it would be absolutely shocking if they didn't actually send another one in. Nhc would ask noaa hunters and air force to go at same time so that if one had an issue we still got the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Also, folks, you can view the current feed by selecting the western Atlantic as mayor regional view either on tidbits or on the goes sat site. Not as zoomed in but you can zoom in yourself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 22 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said: I agree on appearing a bit like a WPAC storm. When I yesterday made the remark about the western band I did so because of Goni and Haiyan, both of which sported such a feature as they strengthened. The structure does sort of remind me more of a super typhoon than your classic Atlantic hurricane which is interesting. Today's structure is solid and very impressive, the 140mph peak the nhc just released seems likely to verify. I'm glad it may landfall in a sparsely populated area. I got a bit of a laugh over whomever reduced the peak intensity forecast last night after Stewart's and then the probable "oh crap" moment this morning. I highly doubt they ever reduced the peak intensity. Maybe one of those cases where it wasn't explicitly shown because it would occur between 12-hour forecast points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said: You're right, but the storm has 24+ hours to go. They have 4 flights scheduled not all with the same division. There is a 0% chance of not having another plane in before landfall. I know what you mean in terms of hoping they don't have more tech issues--I am in the same camp. More just saying, it would be absolutely shocking if they didn't actually send another one in. Nhc would ask noaa hunters and air force to go at same time so that if one had an issue we still got the data. Be some excellent data if one was in it right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: I highly doubt they ever reduced the peak intensity. Maybe one of those cases where it wasn't explicitly shown it would occur between 12-hour forecast points. Yes they did. 11pm discussion explicitly stated they expected a major hurricane. 5am discussion said probably would be a major hurricane. 11pm discussion showed a major inland below peak strength. 5am showed a non major right before land at peak strength. The discussions themselves bear that out. It's splitting hairs but my comment was correct. I don't blame them for it. Reading this forum sometimes is like being on a rollercoaster. Cat 5, cat 1, cat 5, tropical storm, it sucks, its great, where's the plane, there's the plane!! Twitter is on fire as well about this storm. I think they saw the data that overnight the storm wasn't intensifying quite as fast as the fanatics were all screaming it would so they dropped back. Then, you had that classic wobble motion with the storm and the eye popped out and, poof there's your high end 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Wilma comes to mind with this kinda RI. Anyone think Cat 5 is possible? Havent checked the SSTs yet to see if that will support one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Moderately Unstable said: Yes they did. 11pm discussion explicitly stated they expected a major hurricane. 5am discussion said probably would be a major hurricane. 11pm discussion showed a major inland below peak strength. 5am showed a non major right before land at peak strength. The discussions themselves bear that out. It's splitting hairs but my comment was correct. Well son of a *****, that was dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Master of Disaster said: Wilma comes to mind with this kinda RI. Anyone think Cat 5 is possible? Havent checked the SSTs yet to see if that will support one. See my page 1 or 2 analysis I wrote up yesterday am that answered this question. Short answer is yes. The ohc right now supports a peak storm strength of 900-910mb, which is a cat 5. Statistically it's hard to forecast a cat 5 due to potential ercs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Well son of a *****, that was dumb. Nah. I mean, if I were them I'd have played it out more consistently just to keep congruence with the earlier forecasts (don't want to change things too quickly). But they probably had some data that made them want to take a tiny step back. They only dropped the peak winds by 5mph from 115 to 110 but since that's the cutoff it was the difference btwn major and not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Moderately Unstable said: See my page 1 or 2 analysis I wrote up yesterday am that answered this question. Short answer is yes. The ohc right now supports a peak storm strength of 900-910mb, which is a cat 5. Statistically it's hard to forecast a cat 5 due to potential ercs. 100% agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 The 1-minute meso satellite for Eta is back. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 2, 2020 Author Share Posted November 2, 2020 Since daybreak. This is going to max out pretty dang fast based on satellite trends. I'd say this is a Cat 3 and by the time recon gets there this afternoon it will be a Cat 4 at least by the time they complete their last mission pass. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwatcherJ Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 What are the chances of Eta redeveloping off the coast of Mexico after landfall and heading north?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 A satellite page I like to use is COD (College of Dupage). Their non-meso loops are every 5 minutes and update to within 5 minutes of real time. Their meso loop is 1 minute and updates to within 1 minute of real time. Tropical Tidbits has more of a delay. COD meso satellite loop 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 The eye shape looks great, and stable. It could use some more warming though, which will probably happen in the next few hours. I already like this better than delta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 minute ago, stormwatcherJ said: What are the chances of Eta redeveloping off the coast of Mexico after landfall and heading north?? Per the nhc's official track, substantial. But it should be noted to take the current long term solutions such as the fujiwara effect and low splitting phenomena with a grain of salt. They are likely just model artifacts. I hope they are model artifacts! Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The nhc issues a 5 day and not a 10 day forecast for a reason. It's a good reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 I think the NHC recon schedule says the new plane would leave around 15z, but it is now 16z and Tropical Tidbits has no new recon listed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 8 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: A satellite page I like to use is COD (College of Dupage). I prefer it to Tidbits. Their non-meso loops are every 5 minutes and update to within 5 minutes of real time. Their meso loop is 1 minute and updates to within 1 minute of real time. COD meso satellite loop Yes I like cod as well. I also use trackthetropics to get my bigger picture data since that includes ohc, current wind shear, more plots and patterns, ssts etc. I also use the ewall bc Penn State alum *hand raise*, but more for mid latitude storms. I miss the real wall in the weather center! For non penn staters, there's a giant weather lounge on the 5th floor of the meteo building where all the students go to study and such. There's a wall of computer monitors, ~40, rotating through all the things you see on the ewall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Anyone still complaining about a low ACE score now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said: Per the nhc's official track, substantial. But it should be noted to take the current long term solutions such as the fujiwara effect and low splitting phenomena with a grain of salt. They are likely just model artifacts. I hope they are model artifacts! Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The nhc issues a 5 day and not a 10 day forecast for a reason. It's a good reason. The fact we have this much tracking in November with non-junk systems is awesome for the weather nerd in me. This season continues to deliver the goods. I’ll take a back-loaded season any day. Eta likely to be this season’s strongest. I think we’re looking at a high end cat 4 based off this mornings trends, location, and tiny size of the system. Almost perfect sat appearance now. Eye rapidly warming and extremely cold tops surrounding a symmetrical core with well established outflow minus some very slight easterly shear. Nothings going to stop this from bombing until land or an unforeseen ERC which doesn’t seem likely due to the fact the core has just become established 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 2, 2020 Author Share Posted November 2, 2020 There have not been many major hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin during the month of November. There has ever only been one known Category 5, the 1932 Camagüey hurricane that struck Cuba and was devastating to their eastern province. So we're most definitely entering rare territory here and perhaps even the rarest by the end of the day. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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