dbullsfan Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 I will still believe it when I see it for a landfall anywhere near Tampa. It will still end up panhandle or further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 According to recon. 989-992mb. LLC and mid level identifiable. Stout TS pushing Hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 Goes to show some of those "crazy" model runs were perhaps on to something...granted any one of them was not particularly likely to be accurate, but weird stalls, loop-de-loops, etc were definitely on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 1 hour ago, FLweather said: Eta is not playing tonight. Mid and upper level center definitely heading NE though. Wonder what tomorrow brings? Landfall south of Tampa??! Charley's long lost Greek relative. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 Looking at this Eta is definitely on the eastern side of the track and strengthening. I got a friend in Cape Coral told him to batten down the hatches. Naples to Cape Coral Fort Myers up to Sarasota needs to pay very close attention. I would say Tropical Storm Warnings could be replaced by Hurricane warnings at 11 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 Satellite makes it look like it's coming right back towards South Florida. Lol. It is east of the cone, but probably won't miss the track by that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 15 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: Satellite makes it look like it's coming right back towards South Florida. Lol. It is east of the cone, but probably won't miss the track by that much. It did appear to be moving east-northeast for a time, but now looks to be finally on a more northerly course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AS ETA INTENSIFIES FURTHER... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 84.1W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the west coast of Florida from Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 Eta has become better organized over the past few hours, with a better-defined eye feature on the Key West radar. Satellite pictures also show a more symmetric presentation and a large cluster of deep convection near the center. Radar data has shown increasing wind speeds in the mid-levels, which supports conservatively raising the initial wind speed to 60 kt. The current position is southwest of the eye feature on radar, assuming some shear remains, but a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to be in the storm in a few hours to acquire better data on both the initial position and intensity. It appears that the center of Eta has re-formed to the north- northeast tonight, so an initial motion is hard to determine, but is estimated to be northward at about 10 kt. Remarkably, model guidance has become well clustered just east of the previous forecast track as it seems apparent that Eta will now recurve around the ridge toward the Florida Big Bend region and out into the western Atlantic Ocean. The biggest change is that the models are faster than before, and the official forecast follows that lead, along with a small eastward forecast adjustment, near or just east of the model consensus. Further strengthening is possible today while the shear remains low-to-moderate. However, all of the models do show increasing shear by tonight, and the NHC forecast continues to call for weakening of Eta as it approaches the west coast of Florida. However, it would take only a small forecast error to allow Eta to come ashore as a hurricane, and hence a Hurricane Watch has been issued this morning. Rapid weakening is anticipated once Eta makes landfall, and strong shear should prevent any regeneration over the western Atlantic Ocean. The new forecast is a little higher than the previous advisory, mostly due to current trends, and is closer to the more bullish HMON and HWRF models. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is possible early Thursday along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the west coast of Florida from Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown by early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected by late Wednesday along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwanee River, and are possible Thursday from Suwannee River to Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Eta, as additional watches and warnings may be needed today. 3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and South Florida and spread northward across portions of West and North Florida Wednesday through Friday. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida on Wednesday, especially across previously inundated areas, and across portions of West Florida through Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 25.0N 84.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 27.9N 83.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 29.2N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 13/0600Z 30.2N 81.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 13/1800Z 30.9N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 31.0N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 13 hours ago, Prospero said: For the first time this year, I am actually starting to get a gut feeling like we might get hit harder than we've been expecting here in Tampa Bay. Not a lot of time to get ready, and no warnings up yet. Hopefully I am wrong. Welcome to Hurricane season 2020! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 Looks fun tonight/tomorrow. A solid TS for Tampa Bay with TS conditions overtaking the I4 corridor. Going to be in the E/NE quadrant. Hmon shows landfall between Crystal River and Spring Hill moving east of Ocala then off FL EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 Moderate rain right now with wind picking up. I just dropped my wife at school (teacher), expecting Pinellas County Schools will close early today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 Just upgraded to Hurricane Eta Hurricane Eta Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 735 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 ...ETA BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Doppler radar data indicate that Eta has re-strengthened into a hurricane offshore the southwestern coast of Florida, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h), with higher gusts. SUMMARY OF 735 AM EST...1235 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 83.8W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES $$ Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 For the TB region Eta will be the most impactful system since Irma. Looks to be a prolific rain maker and localized flooding will likely be the main headline, perhaps some pockets of wind damage due to downed trees. Just getting into the initial bands here this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, TPAwx said: For the TB region Eta will be the most impactful system since Irma. Looks to be a prolific rain maker and localized flooding will likely be the main headline, perhaps some pockets of wind damage due to downed trees. Just getting into the initial bands here this morning. This will be the most impactful system since Josephine in 1996. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Prospero said: Moderate rain right now with wind picking up. I just dropped my wife at school (teacher), expecting Pinellas County Schools will close early today. Little rain and breezy in Tampa right now. Hillsborough schools have the day off today thankfully. I can tell you that the area has had next to zero prep for any sort of major weather. With the way nearly every single GC storm has attempted intensification on approach this year, I’m concerned for folks along the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A777 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 40/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 Convection has really collapsed on IR looks to be short lived at hurricane intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 27 minutes ago, TPAwx said: For the TB region Eta will be the most impactful system since Irma. Looks to be a prolific rain maker and localized flooding will likely be the main headline, perhaps some pockets of wind damage due to downed trees. Just getting into the initial bands here this morning. Here in Pinellas County, Irma brought us tropical storm winds with a few hurricane gusts on the coast. Our power went out at our home in Gulfport with 39 mph winds. It was off for two long weeks. We lost two oak trees from our front yard with that storm. A direct hit with a respectable TS and we'd have a mess. Will do some prep today like taking down bird feeders, wind chimes, putting outside potted plants in somewhat protected areas, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 Eta is now the second highest ACE producing storm of the season. Pretty respectable for November 11 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 PINELLAS COUNTY In an abundance of caution, ALL Pinellas County Schools will have early dismissal today, Wednesday, Nov. 11 and will be closed tomorrow, Nov. 12. Today’s dismissal times: High Schools: 10:00 a.m. Elementary Schools: 11:00 a.m. Middle Schools: 12 noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 Just now, Prospero said: PINELLAS COUNTY In an abundance of caution, ALL Pinellas County Schools will have early dismissal today, Wednesday, Nov. 11 and will be closed tomorrow, Nov. 12. Today’s dismissal times: High Schools: 10:00 a.m. Elementary Schools: 11:00 a.m. Middle Schools: 12 noon Not surprising. Schools close now for a light breeze. I remember in my day... lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 1 minute ago, TradeWinds said: Not surprising. Schools close now for a light breeze. I remember in my day... lol Grew up loving snow days! LOL Hillsborough County Schools closed Thursday and Friday so the schools can be shelters. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 Not very strong, but it is taking a bad track for Tampa. Sometimes these types of systems can be a problem. The Isaias fiasco in CT,NY,NJ earlier this year was an example. Luckily there is no midlatitude storm nearby this time to give the winds a boost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 59 minutes ago, Prospero said: Grew up loving snow days! LOL Hillsborough County Schools closed Thursday and Friday so the schools can be shelters. Hope sheltering does not create a further issue with Covid. i am concerned with the flooding from this storm. Does anyone know how the expected ETA in the Tampa Bay region matches up with the tide? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, Hotair said: Hope sheltering does not create a further issue with Covid. i am concerned with the flooding from this storm. Does anyone know how the expected ETA in the Tampa Bay region matches up with the tide? High tide at midnight, should be close to max storm impacts. We’re under a 2-4ft surge warning. As you know much of Tampa is prone to flooding from BAU heavy rainfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, TPAwx said: High tide at midnight, should be close to max storm impacts. We’re under a 2-4ft surge warning. As you know much of Tampa is prone to flooding from BAU heavy rainfall. I can’t imagine Davis Island would do go well from a direct hit, even if it’s from a TS. The rain/surge will have bigger impacts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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