Tropical Storm Eta

[cptcatz]

2 hours ago, ct_yankee said:

Seems to be regenerating its CDO at a healthy pace, it certainly looks like its strengthening. I suspect if this same exact storm were in this same exact place but being born for the first time there would be quite a bit of interest, at the very least some wild wishcasting posts. Instead, the board seems to be burnt out on ETA. I suspect a lot of people just wish it would go away at this point. I admit that right now it doesn't seem to have a very bright future, but still...

It doesn't help that basically every model has it fizzling out before ever reaching land again. Feel like it's gonna be another Marco from here on out. 

[Windspeed]

Eta's core convection has improved significantly this evening. Dare I say looks like a hurricane is back on the menu for tomorrow. It will not remain one into the NGOM however.

[Prospero]

44 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

It doesn't help that basically every model has it fizzling out before ever reaching land again. Feel like it's gonna be another Marco from here on out. 

Well, being 2020, we may be here tomorrow night commenting on how amazing it became in 24 hours...

Landfall as a Cat (?) in west LA?

[Prospero]

To keep the 2020 season theme going even into mid-November...

Is that an eye I see??!

EDIT:

Going to bed (up at 4:00 am), thought Eta was about done during dinner, now it is looking good again.

What will the morning bring??

Where is it going to go???

[turtlehurricane]

The most notable thing about Eta in my opinion is how it truly brought tropical storm conditions. Basically, there's not much in-between getting barely any impacts at all and getting hurricane impacts, and in this case we actually got tropical storm impacts, which is a rarity. 

From what the news says there was severe flooding in my area, and many people had their houses destroyed by flood waters. Indeed, I drove around this evening to do some errands and there was extremely deep floodwater in spots, even in spots where they are actively pumping the water. 

We are getting another band here with torrential rain, after a rain-free day. Looks like as Eta drifts north we could get torrential feeder bands from time to time. Flood warnings and flood watches are still in place. 

[yoda]

Still 50mph at 10

[yoda]

Doesn't look like much chance or time for Eta to become a hurricane again 

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
900 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2020

Eta's convective structure appears to be gradually becoming better 
organized this evening. The center is located near the northern edge 
of a band that wraps around the southeastern and southern portions 
of the circulation.  Recent subjective Dvorak data T-numbers were 
3.0, which still support an initial intensity of 45 kt. With Eta's 
structure gradually improving and a forecast for the cyclone to 
remain over SSTs of around 28C and in generally low vertical wind 
shear conditions, some re-strengthening is likely during the next 
24-36 hours. Although the NHC intensity forecast shows Eta remaining 
just below hurricane strength, there is a possibility that the storm 
will briefly regain hurricane status over the southeastern Gulf of 
Mexico within the next day or so.  By 48 hours, when the cyclone 
moves over the east-central Gulf of Mexico, increasing vertical wind 
shear and dry mid-level air are likely to result in weakening, and 
like the previous forecast, the new NHC forecast indicates that Eta 
could weaken to a tropical depression by the end of the period. Some 
of the global model guidance suggests that Eta could weaken even 
faster than indicated below after 72 hours. 

Recent satellite fixes indicate that Eta is moving southwestward but 
a little slower than before at around 8 kt. Eta should slow its 
forward progress overnight and then meander over the southeastern 
Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday as steering current collapse. In 36-48 
hours, Eta should begin moving northward between a mid-level ridge 
over the western Atlantic and a broad trough over the central United 
States. After 72 hours, the spread in the guidance increases when 
Eta is expected to be weaker and be steered by the low-level flow.  
Most of the guidance shows a northwestward to northward motion at 
that time period but have varying forward speed. The NHC track shows 
a slow north-northwest motion late in the period to account for 
these differences.  There is lower than normal confidence in the 
latter portion of the track forecast given the large spread in the 
guidance. 

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, 
the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central 
Florida.  Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across 
previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida 
tonight. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Cuba, 
the Bahamas and the remainder of southern Florida over the next 
several days.

2. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a
tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and
storm surge. Interests in this area should continue to monitor 
the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 23.2N  85.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 22.8N  85.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 23.4N  85.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 24.6N  85.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 25.8N  85.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  12/1200Z 26.6N  85.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  13/0000Z 27.0N  85.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  14/0000Z 27.7N  85.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  15/0000Z 29.0N  86.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[sojitodd]

Edging ever closer to Louisiana...just sayin'.

 

This storm has apparently killed up to 250 people(251 it appears so far) in Central America(at least half in mudslides) at this time. What does it take for a storm to have it's name retired?

[SnowLover22]

1 hour ago, sojitodd said:

Edging ever closer to Louisiana...just sayin'.

 

This storm has apparently killed up to 250 people(251 it appears so far) in Central America(at least half in mudslides) at this time. What does it take for a storm to have it's name retired?

Greek letters don't get retired. It would be known as "ETA 2020" but the name does not get retired. 

[yoda]

Still 50mph at 4am... but this time its stationary in movement

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
300 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

...ETA LINGERING JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
...RISK OF FLOODING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 85.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
300 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

There hasn't been a lot of change to the cloud pattern of Eta 
overnight, with the center apparently located on the northwestern 
side of a small central dense overcast.  Scatterometer data from 
earlier indicated 35-40 kt winds, and with the typical undersampling 
from that instrument, along with consensus 45-kt estimates from 
TAFB/SAB, so Eta's initial wind speed is kept at 45 kt.  A NOAA 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the storm this morning.

Eta is forecast to be in a low-to-moderate shear environment over 
warm SSTs for the next couple of days.  Gradual strengthening is 
expected through early Thursday, with the main restrictive factor 
being nearby dry air. After that time, increasing shear and 
drier mid-level air are likely to cause Eta to weaken. The rate 
of this weakening is pretty uncertain, and a lot depends on how 
much Eta can re-intensify over the next couple of days. The new 
forecast is similar to the previous one, which is quite close to 
the consensus guidance.  

The storm has basically become stationary overnight.  Eta should 
drift to north today due to steering flow changes with a nearby 
upper-level low losing influence while ridging east of Florida 
builds southward.  A slow northward track is then anticipated for a 
couple of days over the east-central Gulf of Mexico in this flow 
pattern.  Beyond that time, model guidance is in rather poor 
agreement, ranging from a stronger system moving faster to the 
northeast due to broad troughing over the south-central United 
States, to a weaker tropical cyclone getting caught under a narrow 
ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and turning west-southwestward.  Since 
the new forecast expects Eta to be weakening, the NHC forecast will 
be west of the consensus and west of the previous track.  I have 
little confidence in the long-range track forecast due to its 
seeming dependence on the intensity, and the wide spread in the 
guidance. 

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and 
South Florida today and tonight.  Additional flash and urban 
flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be 
possible in South Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be 
possible for western Cuba.

2. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a
tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and
storm surge. Interests in this area should continue to monitor
the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 22.9N  85.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 23.1N  85.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 24.0N  85.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 25.0N  85.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 26.0N  85.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  12/1800Z 26.8N  85.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 27.3N  85.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  14/0600Z 28.8N  86.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  15/0600Z 30.0N  87.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[yoda]

[Prospero]

Looks healthy on wake up this morning:

08:21:50Z 11/10/20 to 10:01:50Z 11/10/20

 

[FLweather]

Nam and Wrf kind of resembles the Hwrf I should say earlier model runs.

Hwrf has definitely came back east towards the WC of FL. A few more scoots to the east would put the I4 corridor back under the threat of TS conditions Thursday into Friday. 

[TPAwx]

GFS coming in with an interesting scenario for Tampa Bay region.  Fades out to the west after the last frame.

 

[hawkeye_wx]

The 12z HWRF and HMON are dropping Eta in the 970s again.  They've been going back and forth with the intensity.

[Prospero]

14 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The 12z HWRF and HMON are dropping Eta in the 970s again.  They've been going back and forth with the intensity.

Nice convection burst going on now. I don't know if it is over the center though.

[the ghost of leroy]

3 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Nice convection burst going on now. I don't know if it is over the center though.

Looks like it’s landfalling or about to landfall again in Cuba 

[CheeselandSkies]

21 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The 12z HWRF and HMON are dropping Eta in the 970s again.  They've been going back and forth with the intensity.

Collapses and stalls just offshore FL. The models/runs that get stronger seem pretty intent on this kind of scenario. You'd think a solid hurricane on a NE track in November wouldn't just come to a screeching halt.

[TPAwx]

27 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The 12z HWRF and HMON are dropping Eta in the 970s again.  They've been going back and forth with the intensity.

Based in the prior NHC discussion that would seem to imply more of a eastern trajectory, which the HWRF is showing (as did the GFS).  New Euro looks to be weaker and further offshore.

edit:  Euro comes ashore in the Panhandle, so also further East than 0z.

Seems to be some signals in the guidance that ETA could end up stronger.

[hawkeye_wx]

The globals are not buying any strengthening.

[CheeselandSkies]

47 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The globals are not buying any strengthening.

...which by and large has meant nada this season.

[Prospero]

For the first time this year, I am actually starting to get a gut feeling like we might get hit harder than we've been expecting here in Tampa Bay.

Not a lot of time to get ready, and no warnings up yet.

Hopefully I am wrong.

 

[FLweather]

Gfs has come east. More along the lines of Nam,Hwrf.

Just north of Tampa Bay.

If it can pick up its pace and stay ahead of the developing trough it may stay relatively intact. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Any recon scheduled for Eta? Looks like the H word on sat even with the slight displacement of the center 

[cptcatz]

I'm not sure if it's just the westerly shear since we can't see the center but it sure looks like the convection blob is moving northeast and not north like the NHC indicated. 

I also second the recon question. It's a short flight from Lakeland and we can use some data. Wonder what they're waiting for. 

[Maneee]

44 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Any recon scheduled for Eta? Looks like the H word on sat even with the slight displacement of the center 

Yeah they're flying out now. 

[Prospero]

58 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

I'm not sure if it's just the westerly shear since we can't see the center but it sure looks like the convection blob is moving northeast and not north like the NHC indicated. 

I also second the recon question. It's a short flight from Lakeland and we can use some data. Wonder what they're waiting for. 

Looks like it is heading for Florida.

[FLweather]

3 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Looks like it is heading for Florida.

It is.

But looking at the large scale. Has no choice before a developing deep trough. 

Looking at IR mid and upper low working in tandem.  But LLC slightly SW of the deepest convection. 

[FLweather]

Eta  is not playing tonight. 

Mid and upper level center  definitely heading NE though.  Wonder what tomorrow brings?

Landfall south of Tampa??!